Well, the power went out at my office, and the desktop that has all the pretty tools to make those cool gifs from the Stocktwits data isn’t available. So instead, I used Stocktwits’ MCP to generate the 24 hour battle between bulls and bears. ⚔

But as two stick figure armies.

Back on August 21, I went through some of the major near-term support and resistance levels on AVAX, BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL and SUI. 📆

It’s been 2 weeks. Plenty of time for crypto to either respect the levels, obliterate them, or pretend they never existed like a teenager walking past a sink full of dishes.

So, how’d they do?

On August 21, I had $8 as near-term resistance for $AVAX ( ▼ 1.26% ) and said a move above there would leave a pretty large hole up toward $10.38.

AVAX closed August 21 at roughly $7.84. The very next day it ripped as high as $8.33. And then promptly got kicked back downstairs.

AVAX closed August 22 around $7.49 and has not closed above $8 since. It spent nearly the entire period stuck between roughly $7.00 and $7.75 and is around $7.50 today.

There is also a great, great lesson here with the Ichimoku system: I’ve mentioned before that the Chikou Span responds to the same support/resistance levels - and that’s represented perfectly in the highlighted zone showing the Chikou Span unable to move above the top of the Cloud.

So that $8 value area did exactly what we expected it might do. AVAX technically poked through it intraday, but never confirmed the breakout on a daily close.

The $6.80 support area never got tested either. The closest AVAX got was roughly $7.00. ❄

This one was fun.

$BTC ( ▼ 1.48% ) closed August 21 at $78,335, almost dead nuts on the level. It then spent the next week treating $78,400 like one of those doors at a gas station where nobody can figure out if you push or pull. Above it. Below it. Above it again.

BTC finally started getting some cleaner closes north of that area, traded above $81,000 multiple times, and on September 3 reached an intraday high around $82,333.

Meanwhile, that giant $68,000 to $70,000 support cluster I talked about never came close to being tested. The lowest BTC got after August 21 was roughly $72,500. So $78,400 was less of a brick wall and more of a major pivot. ⌚

This one didn’t screw around.

I had $1.295 as near-term resistance on August 21, tied to the weekly Kijun-Sen, with $1.20 as support. $XRP ( ▼ 2.67% ) closed August 21 around $1.45, then hit $1.70, the exact level of the Monthly Tenkan Sen, was rejected and went lower.

More important, after breaking $1.295, XRP never returned to $1.20. Its lowest print since August 21 came on September 2 around $1.31, almost a perfect trip back toward that old $1.295 resistance area without actually touching it.

That’s about as textbook as you can ask for without the market sending a handwritten thank-you card. Old resistance broke. Price expanded. Old resistance then became the neighborhood where buyers started showing up again.

There’s not much to say here - it’s stuck. It closed August just below the bottom of the Cloud. And that’s where $ETH ( ▼ 1.89% ) is currently parked. 🅿

Every drawdown produces the same question: is the bottom in? Nobody knows that in advance. So the On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard answers a different one - how much of what past bottoms looked like are showing up right now? 🤔

Six signals, each scored up to 1.00:

Near 0, nothing resembles a bottom. Near 6, most of it does. Let’s look at some now. 👇

Holders are 39% underwater and the price sits 85% below the December 2024 high - the structural damage is complete. Wallets holding 1M+ $ALGO ( ▼ 1.12% ) own 9.92 billion coins and have not moved a meaningful amount in two years. 📆

Not buying, not selling, just parked. The 4.29 score comes with an asterisk: only 17 wallets hold $100K+ of ALGO, so that component is three wallets pretending to be a trend. Volume is weak at the 80th percentile.

Slightly bullish, but the participation base is close to nonexistent. 🤷

One-year active supply just hit 62.8%, the lowest since August 2024 - holders have stopped moving coins entirely. The $100K crowd is up 30% on the month and 71% on the quarter, the sharpest sustained build in this window. 🪟

But the whale tier is at its lowest level of the whole stretch and shrinking on every timeframe. And the discount is thinner than the price chart suggests: holders sit 5% underwater, not 40%.

Slightly bullish. Stillness and serious money, without the deep reset. ⛏

Wallets holding 1M+ $ADA ( ▼ 4.14% ) own 25.70 billion coins - the most since August 2024, a level set this week, after adding 3.30 billion over two years. 🤯

They're still buying on both the month and the quarter. Holders sit 42% underwater, 83% off the December 2024 high, and the $100K crowd is up 27% on the quarter. The gaps: new wallet creation is at the 17th percentile and network usage is expensive at the 93rd.

Slightly bullish. The best whale bid on the board, no crowd behind it. 🐳

$XRP ( ▼ 2.67% ) is changing hands cheap relative to activity. The $100K crowd is up 27% on the month, rebuilding from a deep trough. But holders sit essentially at cost basis, about 1% underwater, so the deep-value read isn't there.

Wallets holding 100K+ XRP are at their lowest level of the window after shedding 2.1 billion coins, and holders are still actively moving.

Neutral. Cheap transactions, no discount, no whale bid. 🤌

One-year active supply hit 34.8%, the lowest reading since August 2024. 🚵

Nobody is moving it. The $100K crowd is up 24% on the month and 45% on the quarter. But wallets holding 10K+ ETH are down 7.2 million coins and still shrinking, RVT is at the highest reading of the window, and the market trades 10% above cost basis.

Neutral. Record stillness, a crowd arriving, and no discount to buy into. 🤷

The market sits 51% above aggregate cost basis - every prior cycle low printed at or below. The drawdown is only 36%. Wallets holding 1K+ BTC are down 691,000 coins since August 2024 and gave back some of their quarterly buying last month. The one bright spot: the $10M+ wallet count is up 11% on the month, rebuilding from the post-October trough. Bearish.

Neutral and about as ‘meh’ as you can get. 😶

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋