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OVERVIEW

The "Santa Rally" in Crypto: What 12 Years of Data Actually Shows 🧠

Every December, the same narrative resurfaces: "Santa Rally incoming." Crypto Twitter lights up with rocket emojis and predictions of year-end pumps. But what does the data actually say? 🤔

I took a look at the historical price data on eight major tokens and analyzed the Dec 20 to Jan 7 window going back as far as each token's history allows. The results might surprise you - or at least challenge the lazy "number go up in December" thesis.

Here's what I found, the TL;DR version: the Santa Rally is real, but it's not when most people think it happens. December's final stretch is actually one of the weakest periods of the year for most tokens. The seasonal strength shows up in the first week of January - after the tax-loss harvesting, profit-taking, and holiday liquidity crunch have run their course.

Let's break it down by tier.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
These Are The Bad Ones 🦨

Let’s start off with the NOPE pile. 💩

$XRP ( ▼ 0.96% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: -2.60%

• Win rate: 25% (3 of 12 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: +0.47%

• Win rate: 58%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: -1.98%

• Win rate: 25%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: -0.08%

• Win rate: 42%

XRP is the holiday underperformer. Outside of the 2017 moonshot that skews the averages, this token has been red 9 of 12 years during the Dec 20-Jan 7 window. If you're holding XRP through Christmas, history says keep expectations modest. 🤏 

$ZEC ( ▲ 7.11% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: -4.36%

• Win rate: 33% (3 of 9 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: -2.97%

• Win rate: 44%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: -7.57%

• Win rate: 22%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +1.66%

• Win rate: 56%

ZEC is the holiday dog. Worst win rate, worst December performance, and the only token where the median full-period return is negative. Six consecutive losing holiday seasons (2019-2024). If there's a seasonal fade candidate, this is it. 🥹 

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As the year closes, that's the real signal worth paying attention to.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Outperformers 💪 

These tickers have shown consistent strength during the Dec 20 - Jan 7 window. 📆 

$BNB ( ▲ 0.37% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +9.67%

• Win rate: 88% (7 of 8 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: +0.07%

• Win rate: 50%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: +4.90%

• Win rate: 75%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +5.29%

• Win rate: 62%

BNB is the holiday champ. Highest win rate (88%), solid median, and unlike most alts, December itself tends to be green. The only red year was the 2021/2022 top. 🏆️ 

$ETH ( ▲ 0.61% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +7.68%

• Win rate: 80% (8 of 10 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: -1.25%

• Win rate: 40%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: +1.85%

• Win rate: 60%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +6.50%

• Win rate: 70%

ETH has the strongest holiday seasonality of any major. Eight of ten years finished green over the full period, and the New Year week is especially reliable. Even December holds up better here than it does for BTC. 🥇 

$ADA ( ▼ 1.29% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +7.98%

• Win rate: 75% (6 of 8 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: +1.62%

• Win rate: 62%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: +2.52%

• Win rate: 62%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +10.85%

• Win rate: 75%

ADA mirrors ETH's holiday strength - solid win rates across all three sub-periods, with the New Year week being the strongest stretch. Shorter data history, but the consistency is notable. 🌍️ 

$SOL ( ▼ 0.3% )

• Median return: +6.61%

• Win rate: 80% (4 of 5 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: -3.08%

• Win rate: 40%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: -2.51%

• Win rate: 20%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +4.31%

• Win rate: 60%

Limited data, but some things might worth consider: December bleeds, January heals. SOL has finished green 4 of 5 holiday periods despite December being red 80% of the time. The New Year reversal does the heavy lifting. 💪 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Toss Ups 🤷

These tokens don't show a reliable seasonal edge either direction. 😶

$BTC ( ▲ 0.17% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +0.48%

• Win rate: 58% (7 of 12 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: -0.27%

• Win rate: 50%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: -2.43%

• Win rate: 25%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +3.32%

• Win rate: 67%

December's final days tend to be red (tax-loss selling, profit-taking, thin liquidity), but the first week of January historically reverses that. The "Santa Rally" in Bitcoin is really a New Year rally. 🫢 

$ATOM ( ▼ 0.67% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +5.95%

• Win rate: 50% (3 of 6 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: +4.09%

• Win rate: 67%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: +1.83%

• Win rate: 50%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +5.20%

• Win rate: 67%

ATOM's small sample is volatile - big winners, modest losers. Interestingly, Christmas week itself is one of its stronger stretches (67% win rate). But three straight losing holiday periods (2022-2024) clouds the picture. ☁️ 

$TRX ( ▼ 0.46% )

Full Holiday Period (Dec 20 - Jan 7)

• Median return: +0.94%

• Win rate: 62% (5 of 8 years positive)

Christmas Week (Dec 20-26)

• Median: +0.02%

• Win rate: 50%

Final Week of December (Dec 20-31)

• Median: -1.06%

• Win rate: 38%

New Year Week (Jan 1-7)

• Median: +3.78%

• Win rate: 50%

TRX is a coin flip across all periods. The 2017 moonshot skews the averages, but strip that out and you're looking at low-single-digit moves either direction. Not much edge here. 🫓

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
In A Nutshell 🥜

The "Santa Rally" narrative isn't wrong - it's just misunderstood. 🤔

December's final week is weak. Tax-loss harvesting, year-end profit-taking, and thin holiday liquidity hit most tokens. Only BNB and ADA have win rates above 60% for Dec 20-31.

The real move happens in January. Seven of eight tokens show better performance in the Jan 1-7 window than in December. The New Year brings fresh allocations, renewed risk appetite, and a reversal of December's selling pressure.

Not all tokens are created equal. BNB, ETH, ADA, and SOL have shown reliable holiday strength. BTC is a slight positive. XRP and ZEC have been consistent losers.

Outliers distort everything. The 2017/2018 and 2020/2021 holiday seasons were moonshots across the board. Strip those out and the edge gets thinner. Don't assume history's best years are the baseline.

Let’s see what the last week of 2025 brings us. 👀 

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋