OVERVIEW

The Rally Got Mugged In Broad Daylight 🥷 

The market strutted out of bed this morning acting like it just discovered fire - then immediately slipped on a banana peel made of liquidation wicks. Just when traders started believing again, the chart pulled out a ski mask, whispered “hand over wut ur hodling,” and made off with everyone’s gains. 🤦 

It’s that special kind of pain where you don’t even get mad anymore - you just stare at the screen, nod slowly, and accept that happiness was, once again, a scam. And like a Minnesota Vikings fan, you don’t deserve to be happy.

Oh, and today’s a special long-form full blown TA edition at the request of many of you over the past couple months. 👍️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTF Is This Thing, And Is It Safe To Look At? 😱

I know what you’re thinking. You’re looking at that ominous image above and there’s some variation of ‘looks like something that is part of a cult starter pack,’ ‘is math trying to summon a demon?’ or ‘if that starts to glow I’m gonna GTFO.’ 🧠 

Three Reason’s We’re Looking At Something That Looks Like Math Had A Nervous Breakdown

1. I’ve got a stupidly long backlog of requests, pings, DMs, and emails from readers asking to bring back some of the old-school forecasting madness.

2. Today is the perfect day to do it because today was like that like that episode of Lost where the science teacher Arntz is very, very, carefully carrying, a 400-year old stick of dynamite before he exploderizes mid sentence.

3. It’s Columbus Day Weekend, so everyone needs some good bathroom reading. 🚽 

The Square Of 9

W.D. Gann, the guy behind it, believed markets move in geometric and cyclical relationships - meaning price and time interact like gears in a clock. The Square of 9 helps visualize those relationships - not to predict the future like a psychic, but to identify when and where something important could occur. 🤔 

It treats price and time as part of the same cycle - what happens in one affects the other. Each major high or low starts a new “square,” and we measure rotations in degrees (45°, 90°, 180°, 270°, 360°). Those angles get converted into:

• Time windows - when markets often pivot, reverse, or explode in volatility.

• Price harmonics - the actual price zones where reversals or accelerations tend to form.

Combine the two and you get what’s called confluence - a spot where time and price “vibrate” together. That’s where the magic usually happens. 🪄 

Conditional Forecasting

This is the part that makes all of this useful. 🤔 

Conditional forecasting means building two possible paths - bullish and bearish - from the same cycle.

• If price is above a key harmonic during a time window, you treat it as continuation or breakout potential.

• If it’s below, you assume weakness or trend failure.

Same Gann analysis, different outcomes, depending on where price sits in real time. It’s not about prediction - it’s about preparation.

• The dates tell you when to look up from your phone.

• The prices tell you where to watch once you do.

• If both line up, that’s your trade zone.

• If they don’t, you go back to memes and wait for the next one.

Gann’s math doesn’t promise the future. It just narrows down the parts of it worth paying attention to. 🧠 

PRESENTED BY CRYPTOTWITS
The RRG Is Back Baby 🫂

That’s right, the RRG is back in the weekend crypto newsletter. 🤯 

Boom. 🧨 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP 2025: The Fork in the Spiral 🍽️ 

XRP’s sitting near $2.70 (well, it was this afternoon), right in the middle of its current vibration (fancy Gann word). The cycles drawn from the Jan 16, 2025 high ($3.399), Apr 7 low ($1.614), and Jul 18 ATH ($3.661) set up three overlapping time windows that decide how the year ends.

Watch October 11, November 20, and December 30 - those are the volatility clusters.

What happens at these dates depends entirely on whether XRP’s trading above or below its harmonics.

Bullish Path 🟢

• Oct 6–11: If XRP closes above $2.93, the trend stays alive. That breakout targets $3.12–$3.33, and a follow-through confirms the market’s ready to retest the summer highs.

• Nov 20 ± 3 days: A push through $3.33–$3.48 unlocks a clean shot toward $3.66–$3.88. This is where the cycles overlap most tightly - a strong close here usually signals a breakout leg.

• Dec 29–31: Staying above $3.66 into year-end flips the whole 2025 cycle bullish. Next upside magnets sit near $3.88–$4.05, setting up a 2026 continuation.

If I was a mega XRP bag hodler, I’d start to get the sphincter pinch coming because I’d be hella nervous.

Bearish Path 🔴

• Oct 6–11: A drop under $2.74 flips structure bearish. That break typically sends XRP back toward $2.44–$2.21, retesting prior support harmonics.

• Nov 20 ± 3 days: Failing to hold above $3.12–$3.33 triggers a slide toward $1.99–$1.78. That’s the cycle’s danger zone where liquidity starts evaporating fast.

• Dec 29–31: Sustained trade below $1.78–$1.61 resets the entire 2025 vibration and reopens downside to $1.46–$1.33 - a full square restart for 2026.

This scenario is getting too close for comfort.

 TL;DR 🧩

XRP either holds above $3.12 and finishes 2025 with fireworks - or slips below $2.74 and retraces half its year’s gains. Different outcomes depending on which side of the square it’s standing on. 🎯

PRESENTED BY STOCKTWITS
Stonks Climb… Then Dump 💩

Stonks went up. 🔼 

And then they didn’t. 😥 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum 2025: The Cycle Turns Sharp 🔷 

ETH topped out at $4,957 in late August after a 258% rally from April’s low. Now, the cycles from the Dec 16, 2024 ($4,106), Apr 9, 2025 ($1,385), and Aug 24, 2025 ($4,957) pivots lines up again through Q4 - meaning this is where the next major move starts.

The angles point to three key time windows: October 20–24, November 22–26, and December 28–31.

Those are your volatility zones. What happens there decides whether ETH keeps expanding above $5K or slips back into a full correction cycle.

Bullish Scenario 🟢

• Oct 20–24: ETH needs to close above $2,985. That would confirm a mid-square reclaim and flip bias long again. A clean breakout here targets $3,420–$3,810 and resets momentum for November.

• Nov 22–26: If ETH pushes past $3,810, expect an acceleration wave toward $4,200–$4,560. That’s the dual-spiral overlap - one of the strongest continuation setups of the year.

• Dec 28–31: Holding above $4,560 signals that ETH is ready to complete the full rotation toward $4,957–$5,280. Sustained trade in that zone kicks off a new 2026 harmonic and likely extends the uptrend into Q1.

In short, ETH stays bullish while it’s closing above $2,985, and strength through $4.2K–$4.5K confirms a brand-new cycle.

Bearish Scenario 🔴

• Oct 20–24: A drop below $2,720 turns the structure bearish. That break usually unleashes a 20%+ drawdown toward $2,320–$2,040 and sets up a weak November.

• Nov 22–26: Failure under $2,040–$1,785 deepens the breakdown. That’s when the market usually unwinds to the bottom half of its 2025 range - expect a slide into $1,785–$1,585 with broader risk-off pressure across majors.

• Dec 28–31: If ETH closes below $1,585–$1,385, it resets the entire 2025 cycle. That’s a full rotation collapse back to the April base and possibly $1,250, signaling capitulation and a new bearish square for 2026.

ETH’s bias turns decisively negative if it can’t defend $2,720, and below $2,040 the next stop is the low $1Ks.

TL;DR 🧩

• Three dates matter: Oct 24, Nov 25, and Dec 30.

• If ETH’s above $3K in those windows, probable drive to $5K+.

• If it’s below $2.7K, gravity wins, and the 2026 reset begins early.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Zcash 2025: Cycle On A Bender 🍺 

I mean, there’s no way we can’t do this insane mover of movers. 😳 

Zcash is moving like it borrowed Bitcoin’s coke supply. From $26.30 (Feb 3) to over $230 (Oct 10) in eight months, it’s way past its original harmonic.

The key pivots are Feb 3, 2025 ($26.30), May 26, 2025 ($57.61), and Dec 3, 2025 ($79.10). Those angles still map the same volatility windows for late 2025: October 14–18, November 17–22, and December 30–January 3.

Bullish Path 🟢

• Oct 14–18: Holding above $210 keeps the parabolic structure intact. That momentum projects toward $250–$310, with the potential to run higher into mid-November.

• Nov 17–22: A strong close above $280 targets $330–$410. This is the dual-rotation confluence - historically where ZEC’s biggest legs start.

• Dec 30–Jan 3: If price stays above $410, expect a full-blown blow-off phase into $460–$500, completing the 2025 rotation and setting up a new 2026 square.

As long as ZEC lives above $217, bulls are still driving. Above $295, it’s not analysis anymore, it’s spectacle.

Bearish Path 🔴

• Oct 14–18: A drop below $210 signals a top and opens downside toward $185–$165. That’s where short-term structure starts breaking down.

• Nov 17–22: Continued weakness under $165 pulls ZEC into $135–$115–$95 - a retracement of half the rally and likely volatility spike.

• Dec 30–Jan 3: Sustained trade below $95 brings the full reset. Expect reversion to the old harmonic range near $79–$57–$26, erasing 2025’s mania in one square.

That’s a full reset, and a retest of $79 – $57 is back on the menu if the square collapses.

🧩 TL;DR

• ZEC’s either writing the next crypto legend or testing the limits of gravity.

• Hold above $210 and the math points toward $500.

• Lose it, and the cycle says $95 comes faster than anyone’s ready for. 💥

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Avalanche (AVAX) 2025: The Echo of the Square 🏔️ 

Avalanche has been quietly mimicking Ethereum’s rhythm all year - same structure, different altitude. From the Dec 4, 2024 high ($55.85) to the Apr 7, 2025 low ($14.65), and then the Sep 23, 2025 high ($36.18), AVAX has been tracing the same harmonic cycles, just compressed.

Gann’s applications say the next three volatility clusters land around October 22–26, November 18–22, and December 20–24. Those are the “time windows” where price and time collide again - where something breaks, one way or another.

Bullish Path 🟢

• October 22–26: Holding above $28.38–$31.11 shows strength. That range sets the base for another push toward $33.96–$36.94.

• November 18–22: A breakout above $36.94 opens the next zone at $40.04–$43.26, and if momentum holds, the rally can stretch to $46.62. This is where continuation waves tend to start.

• December 20–24: Sustained trade above $43.26–$46.62 finishes the 360° rotation. That lands AVAX between $50–$54, effectively bringing it back to its 2024 highs and setting the stage for a new bullish square into 2026.

If AVAX closes the year above $45, the new harmonic starts strong. Anything above $50 is the market’s way of saying “bull market confirmed.”

Bearish Path 🔴

• October 22–26: A drop under $27.72 flips structure from accumulation to distribution. Expect a fast slide into $25.15–$22.71 - the first warning of a deeper unwind.

• November 18–22: Failure to reclaim $28–$31 or a sharp rejection near $33–$34 usually sends AVAX back toward $20.39. That’s where the spring rally started, and it’s where exhausted trends go to rest.

• December 20–24: Sustained trade below $20.39 opens $18.19–$16.12 and, in a worst-case, retests the $14.65 April low. Lose that, and the whole 2025 structure resets into a new bearish square.

If AVAX closes below $27 in October, the year-end setup shifts bearish fast. Below $20, you’re basically watching a cycle die in real time.

TL;DR 🧩

• AVAX’s cycles mirror Ethereum’s - just faster and meaner.

• If it’s holding above $36 into late November, the path to $50–$55 opens cleanly.

• If it breaks below $27 before year-end, the harmonic resets and the climb starts all over again. ❄️

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋