OVERVIEW

November Is Crypto's Booty Call And It Almost Always Says Yes 📲

If you’ve been around long enough, you already know that November has a reputation in crypto - it’s where trends are born, bubbles inflate, and traders rediscover both hope and leverage. But how do the numbers actually stack up? 🤔

Today we’re looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, and Dogecoin - each with enough historical data to at least give us a rough idea of how November tends to behave.

Each crypto’s section breaks down its average November performance, win rate, streaks, and a few deeper stats like Right-Tail Juice (the upside explosiveness), Tail Risk (the pain potential), and the Seasonality Z-Score (how it stacks up against other months).

And if you’re wondering what any of those terms actually mean, there’s a short glossary just below this.

Bottom line? November’s arguably the most important (price action-wise) in crypto. Whether you’re holding, trading, or just watching from a safe emotional distance, the data tells its own story. 👀

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Glossary: What The Numbers Actually Mean 📕 

Average Increase When Up (%): The average gain during Novembers that ended positive. Basically, how hard the asset tends to rally when it’s green.

Average Decrease When Down (%): The average loss during red Novembers. Tells you how nasty the typical drop is when things go south.

Overall Average Monthly Change (%): The average return across all Novembers, ups and downs combined. Think of it as the month’s batting average.

Median November Change (%): The middle return if you lined up all November performances from worst to best. Cuts out the influence of extreme outliers.

Right-Tail Juice: The average of the top 25% of November returns. It shows how explosive the upside potential can be when things go right. More “juice,” more moon missions.

Tail Risk: The average of the bottom 25% of November returns. Measures how painful the downside extremes are. Big negatives = high probability of tears.

Seasonality Z-Score: A fancy way to show whether November performs better or worse than the asset’s other months.

• Positive Z-score - historically stronger than most months.

• Negative Z-score - underperforms relative to the rest of the year.

Win Rate (%): The percentage of Novembers that closed positive. How often the month behaves.

Longest Green/Red Streaks: The most consecutive Novembers that closed up (green) or down (red). Tells you if the month tends to trend or flip-flop.

Rank (Avg Increase / Gentlest Decrease / Overall): Compares November to all twelve months. Rank 1 = best. Rank 12 = worst.

BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance in November 📈

It’s the best month ever. Hands down.

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 15

• Win rate: 60.00%

• Average increase when up: +73.87%

• Average decrease when down: -17.24%

• Overall average monthly change: +38.57%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 1 of 12 - No month even comes close.

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 10 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 1 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 9 of 15 Novembers (60%)

• Longest Green Streak: 6 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +470.94% (2013)

• Worst November: -36.54% (2018)

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top quartile avg): +151.26%

• Tail risk (bottom quartile avg): -19.74%

• Seasonality Z-score: +1.88

• Skew: Aggressively positive - when BTC runs in November, it erupts.

November is Bitcoin’s MVP month. Highest upside, best averages, biggest blowouts. Volatile? Absolutely. But historically, this is where legends are made and shorts go to cry. 👀

Dataset range: August 2010 - October 2025 

ETHEREUM
Ethereum’s Historical Performance in November 📈

ETH treats November like therapy - emotional, volatile, and occasionally life-changing. Half the time it’s enlightenment, the other half it’s a full-blown existential crisis. 👀

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 9

• Win rate: 55.56%

• Average increase when up: +33.94%

• Average decrease when down: -24.61%

• Overall average monthly change: +7.92%

• Median November change: +7.96%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 7 of 12

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 10 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 7 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 5 of 9 Novembers (56%)

• Longest Green Streak: 2 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +59.39% in 2020

• Worst November: -42.71% in 2018

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top-quartile avg): +49.57%

• Tail risk (bottom-quartile avg): -27.25%

• Seasonality Z-score (vs all months): -0.22

• Skew: Positive - when ETH rallies in November, it does it loud.

November’s been kind more often than cruel for ETH, with a mild bullish lean and some monstrous upside bursts. But volatility’s still the rule, not the exception. 👀

Dataset range: April 2016 - October 2025

XRP
XRP’s Historical Performance in November 📈

November for XRP feels like watching a bar fight in slow motion - wild swings, loud exits, and somehow everyone’s richer or bruised by the end. 👀

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 10

• Win rate: 40.00%

• Average increase when up: +119.92%

• Average decrease when down: -16.82%

• Overall average monthly change: +37.88%

• Median November change: -11.25%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 2 of 12

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 6 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 2 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 4 of 10 Novembers (40%)

• Longest Green Streak: 2 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +282.5% in 2024

• Worst November: -23.43% in 2019

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top quartile avg): +159.58%

• Tail risk (bottom quartile avg): -21.20%

• Seasonality Z-score: +0.97

• Skew: Explosively positive - when XRP wins, it obliterates the curve.

November has been XRP’s personal moon-ticket season - low consistency, sky-high rewards. Traders who survived 2018 earned 2024’s revenge. The month’s built for adrenaline, not stability. 👀

Dataset range: February 2015 - October 2025

DOGECOIN
Dogecoin’s Historical Performance in November 📈

DOGE in November acts like it just remembered it’s a meme. One month it’s rewriting the laws of gravity, the next it’s eating crayons again. You love to see it. 👀

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 8

• Win rate: 50.00%

• Average increase when up: +75.09%

• Average decrease when down: -22.72%

• Overall average monthly change: +26.18%

• Median November change: +6.51%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 4 of 12

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 9 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 4 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 4 of 8 Novembers (50%)

• Longest Green Streak: 2 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +160.95% in 2024

• Worst November: -42.57% in 2018

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top-quartile avg): +119.97%

• Tail risk (bottom-quartile avg): -32.98%

• Seasonality Z-score: +0.21

• Skew: Positive - DOGE can stay boring for a while, then suddenly remember Elon exists.

DOGE’s Novembers flip a coin between euphoria and despair. It’s neither safe nor steady, but history shows when it breaks out, it really breaks out. 👀

Dataset range: July 2017 - October 2025

CHAINLINK
Chainlink’s Historical Performance in November 📈

November for LINK is like a half-charged oracle node - sometimes it delivers divine insight, sometimes it just times out. 👀

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 7

• Win rate: 42.86%

• Average increase when up: +40.01%

• Average decrease when down: -18.21%

• Overall average monthly change: +6.74%

• Median November change: -2.29%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 5 of 12

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 6 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 8 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 3 of 7 Novembers (≈43%)

• Longest Green Streak: 2 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +66.28% in 2024

• Worst November: -37.21% in 2018

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top-quartile avg): +46.63%

• Tail risk (bottom-quartile avg): -27.45%

• Seasonality Z-score: -0.30

• Skew: Slightly positive - not wild, but enough to keep hope alive.

LINK’s Novembers have been more “meh” than magic. When it runs, it’s clean - but most years it’s just sitting in the middleware of mediocrity. 👀

Dataset range: March 2018 – October 2025

CARDANO
Cardano’s Historical Performance in November 📈

If ADA had a favorite month, it’s November. Eff that, November is Cardano’s favorite month, and it’s not even close. 👀

Average Stats for November 🔢

• Years analyzed: 7

• Win rate: 42.86%

• Average increase when up: +109.55%

• Average decrease when down: -22.24%

• Overall average monthly change: +34.24%

• Median November change: -1.94%

November vs. Other Months 🥊

• Average Increase When Up
  Rank 1 of 12

• Average Decrease When Down
  Rank 11 of 12 (1 = gentlest)

• Overall Average Change
  Rank 1 of 12

Consistency & Streaks 📅

• Win Rate: 3 of 7 Novembers (≈43%)

• Longest Green Streak: 2 years

• Longest Red Streak: 2 years

• Best November: +215.31% in 2024

• Worst November: -44.68% in 2018

Extra Context 🔎

• Right-tail juice (top-quartile avg): +150.21%

• Tail risk (bottom-quartile avg): -33.04%

• Seasonality Z-score: +1.68

• Skew: Violently positive - ADA doesn’t do “mild rallies.”

November is ADA’s Super Bowl. Huge swings, massive upside, and crashes that make you question your life choices. But historically, this is the month ADA traders watch the hardest. 👀

Dataset range: January 2018 – October 2025

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