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OVERVIEW

Your Complete Guide to Crypto January Seasonality: 9 Assets, 9 Stories 🔢

Look, I'm not going to dress this up with some hopium-soaked intro about "what the new year holds for crypto." The data tells a story, and, as much as it sucks to hear, it's not the one most people want to hear. 😐️

I ran a stupidly long OCD & ADHD enhanced January seasonality analysis on nine major crypto tickers: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, BNB, Cardano, TRON, Solana, Cosmos, and Zcash - going back as far as each asset's history allows (well, as far back as Santiment’s data goes).

This format is a little different than what I’ve done over the past 3.5 years here at Stonktwits, but after some feedback (some nice and most salty AF), I hope this newer format is one you enjoy. If you don’t, please let me know. I thrive on the hate.

Anyway, the goal here is the same as I’ve done for other months: figure out what January actually does for each asset, and more importantly (something I’ve added), what conditions precede the good Januaries versus the bad ones.

Some of what I found runs completely counter to the narratives you'll see elsewhere. The assets that look similar on the surface behave very differently under the hood. And the setups heading into January 2026 vary wildly across the board.

Let's do this. 💪 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
You Said You Wanted A TL;DR Version, So Here It Is 🍽️

The January Winners

• Solana (SOL): 60% win rate, +47.08% average, ranks #1 of 12 months

• Ethereum (ETH): 60% win rate, +31.21% average, ranks #2 of 12 months

• TRON (TRX): 75% win rate, +10.99% average, ranks #2 of 12 months

The Middle Ground

• BNB: 62.5% win rate, +9.50% average, ranks #5 of 12 months

• Cardano (ADA): 50% win rate, +16.82% average, ranks #3 (but median is -3.56% - skewed by outliers)

• Cosmos (ATOM): 50% win rate, +5.81% average, ranks #5 of 12 months

The January Losers

• Bitcoin (BTC): 41.7% win rate, -0.75% average, ranks #10 of 12 months

• XRP: 41.7% win rate, +0.81% average, ranks #8 of 12 months

• Zcash (ZEC): 33.3% win rate, +6.41% average, ranks #7 (but median is -18.47% - heavily skewed)

Cool Observations. Well I Think They’re Cool

• Year-end strength is generally bearish for January (BTC, XRP, ADA, ZEC)

• Year-end weakness is generally bullish for January (SOL, ETH, BNB)

• TRON is the anomaly which makes sense because its a shady as fook ticker

• Cosmos shrugs at all seasonal patterns

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Here’s Some, ‘WTF’ Pieces Of January Data 🤯

We’re getting to the individual play-by-play for each ticker, but before that, here are some patterns/insights/observations you might find interesting. 🤔

The Green December Curse Is Real - For Most Assets

Bitcoin, XRP, and Cardano all show significant underperformance after green Decembers. BTC's January win rate drops from 57% (after red Dec) to just 20% (after green Dec). XRP's drops to 25%. Cardano's to 33%.

But not every asset follows this pattern. Ethereum is 60/60 regardless of December's color. TRON actually shows an 80% January win rate after green December - the opposite of the curse.

Double-Red Year-End Is Often Bullish

When both November and December close red, several assets show strong January rebounds. Yes, omg, I know these data sets are small, but they’re what we’ve got:

• ETH: 100% win rate (3/3), +33.76% average

• BNB: 100% win rate (2/2), +30.51% average

• SOL: 100% win rate (1/1), +139.95%

Green Q4 Often Exhausts Buyers

Strong fourth quarters tend to produce weaker Januaries across most assets:

• BTC: 42.9% win rate after green Q4 vs. 40% after red (similar, slight edge to red)

• XRP: 33.3% win rate after green Q4 vs. 50% after red

• ZEC: 0% win rate after green Q4 (0/3, all losses averaging -31%)

• BNB: 40% win rate after green Q4 vs. 100% after red Q4

Momentum Reversal Is More Common Than Continuation

Most assets reverse December's direction in January more often than they continue it:

• SOL: 80% reversal rate (highest)

• BTC: 67% reversal rate

• ADA: 62.5% reversal rate

• XRP: 58% reversal rate

• TRX: 37.5% reversal rate (continuation is more common)

Now let’s get into the individual breakdowns. 👇️

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin: The Green December Curse 😨 

Win Rate: 41.7% (5/12) | Average: -0.75% | Median: -3.19% | Rank: #10 of 12 months

January is historically Bitcoin's third-worst month. But that average masks significant conditional variation.

Well, That’s Dramatic: When December closes green, January follows with a loss 80% of the time. Only 2021 bucked the trend. After a red December, January's win rate jumps to 57% with an average return of +3.56%.

December's momentum reverses 67% of the time. The market uses January for profit-taking after strong finishes and dip-buying after weak ones.

Double-Green Trap: When both November and December close green, January posts just a 20% win rate averaging -6.78%.

The Halving Cycle: Januaries following a halving year (2017, 2021, 2025) have a 66.7% win rate and average +6.13% - the best of the bunch.

January 2026 Setup: The setup is mixed. Red Q4 is modestly bullish (+1.78% avg), but if December finishes green, that triggers the 20% win rate curse. The key question is whether December can hold its gains or flip red by month-end. A red December close would significantly improve January odds. ⚖️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum: Actually Good 😯

Win Rate: 60% (6/10) | Average: +31.21% | Median: +31.68% | Rank: #2 of 12 months

ETH's January seasonality is almost the mirror opposite of Bitcoin's - and that divergence itself is useful information.

Red Or Green Don’t Matta: December's color doesn't matter for ETH. After green December: 60% win rate, +48.22% average. After red December: same 60% win rate, +14.19% average. No curse here.

The Double-Red Signal: When both November and December close red, ETH's January has been green every single time - 100% (3/3), averaging +33.76%. The oversold bounce is reliable.

Q4 Conditioning: After red Q4, ETH January posts a 75% win rate.

January 2026 Setup: Not a double-red setup since December is currently green. However, Q4 is firmly red, which historically triggers a 75% win rate. The setup is moderately bullish - not the slam-dunk 100% pattern, but red Q4 is a constructive signal. 😶 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP: Where December Euphoria Goes to Die 💀

Win Rate: 41.7% (5/12) | Average: +0.81% | Median: -7.93% | Rank: #8 of 12 months

If Bitcoin's January has a "Green December Curse," XRP's version is more like a Green December Massacre.

Nope Nope Nope Nope: After a green December, XRP's January posts a 25% win rate with an average of -26.36%. 

Double-Green Death Sentence: When both November and December close green, January has posted a 0% win rate (2/2 losses averaging -46.38%).

Green Q4 Curse: 33.3% January win rate after green Q4, -16.44% average. Red Q4 produces 50% win rate, +18.07% average.

January 2026 Setup: This is a double-red setup with red Q4. Historically: red Q4 → 50% win rate, +18.07% avg. Double-red → 40% win rate, +0.22% avg. The setup is neutral - not the bearish post-pump scenario, but double-red hasn't been a strong bullish signal for XRP like it is for ETH. 👍️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BNB: The Pure Contrarian Play 🎭️

Win Rate: 62.5% (5/8) | Average: +9.50% | Median: +9.99% | Rank: #5 of 12 months

BNB's January is all about buying the fear. Every major conditional signal points the same direction: when the prior period was ugly, January delivers.

Meh: After a red Q4, BNB's January is 100% green (3/3), averaging +21.40%. After green Q4? Only 40% win rate, +2.37% average.

Red H2 Signal: Also 100% (2/2) after red H2, averaging +18.13%.

Double-Red Setup: 100% (2/2) after both Nov and Dec red, averaging +30.51%.

December color alone doesn't matter - it's the broader period that counts.

January 2026 Setup: Q4 is red, which triggers the 100% win rate pattern. This is the contrarian setup BNB loves. Even though December is currently green (preventing double-red), the red Q4 is the dominant signal. Setup is bullish. 🐂 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano: Boom or Bust 😶

Win Rate: 50% (4/8) | Average: +16.82% | Median: -3.56% | Rank: #3 of 12 months (skewed)

Cardano's January is high-variance gambling. The average looks attractive, but the median tells the real story - a few monster wins are carrying everything.

Well, That Sucks: Green December produces only 33.3% January win rate. Double-green Nov-Dec is also 33.3%. Strong momentum reversal tendency (62.5%).

The Outlier Problem: January 2021's +96.69% and January 2023's +56.51% pull the average up. But most Januaries are losses.

January 2026 Setup: Not double-green, not double-red. Mixed signals. Red Q4 historically produces 50% win rate with +20.98% avg - slightly better than green Q4. Red December would improve the setup. Currently neutral to slightly bullish given the deep red Q4. 😐️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TRON: The Quiet Outperformer 🤫

Win Rate: 75% (6/8) | Average: +10.99% | Median: +9.42% | Rank: #2 of 12 months

TRON does something in January that almost no other major crypto does: it shows up consistently.

The Headline Finding: After green December, TRON's January posts an 80% win rate (+10.46% avg) - the opposite of BTC/XRP/ADA. Momentum continuation rate is 62.5% - most cryptos reverse.

The Contrarian Still Works: After red H2, TRON is 100% (3/3) with +28.19% average. But it's not the only path to January gains.

January 2026 Setup: This is a double-red setup with red Q4. Historically: red Q4 → 75% win rate, +15.44% avg. This is TRX's strongest conditional setup. Bullish. 🟢 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Solana: The Mean Reversion Monster 👾 

Win Rate: 60% (3/5) | Average: +47.08% | Median: +19.48% | Rank: #1 of 12 months

Solana's January is the market's reset button - and it's only been around for five Januaries, but the pattern is unmistakable.

The Headline Finding: 80% momentum reversal rate from December - the highest of any crypto analyzed. After red Q4: 100% green (2/2), averaging +135.72%. January 2023's +139.95% followed Q4 2022's -69%.

Extreme H2 gains lead to January exhaustion. Year-end weakness creates January opportunity.

January 2026 Setup: Q4 is deeply red, which triggers the 100% win rate pattern historically. However, December is currently green - the only instance of a green December preceded SOL's lone January loss. The Q4 signal is bullish, but watch December's close. Bullish on Q4 signal, but December's direction matters. 🤔 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cosmos: The Coin Flip 🪙 

Win Rate: 50% (3/6) | Average: +5.81% | Median: -2.12% | Rank: #5 of 12 months

If you're looking for a strong seasonal edge in Cosmos, January isn't it. The data shows almost perfect randomness.

The Headline Finding: 50/50 splits across nearly every conditional metric. Green December, red December, green Q4, red Q4 - doesn't matter. Momentum continuation/reversal is also 50/50.

ATOM's unique position as an "ecosystem coin" means it trades more on idiosyncratic catalysts (airdrops, ecosystem launches, staking dynamics) than on broader market seasonality.

January 2026 Setup: This is a double-red setup - the pattern that produced the only 100% win rate in ATOM's data. Only one prior instance, but it was +41.36%. Cautiously bullish based on the double-red pattern, though small sample size warrants a coin flip. 🪙 

NEWS
Zcash: The Green Q4 Death Sentence 💀

Win Rate: 33.3% (3/9) | Average: +6.41% | Median: -18.47% | Rank: #7 of 12 months (heavily skewed)

The Headline Finding: After a green Q4, Zcash's January is 0-for-3 with an average loss of -31.22%. Every single green Q4 has been followed by a losing January.

After green H2: only 25% win rate. The pattern is consistent across timeframes.

Zcash's boom-bust cycles create exhaustion after rallies that plays out in subsequent months.

January 2026 Setup: This triggers every warning signal. Double-green Nov-Dec (0% win rate), massive green Q4 (0% win rate), and one of the biggest Q4 rallies in ZEC history. All three prior green Q4 instances lost more than 25% in January. Strongly bearish. If you're long ZEC from the Q4 rally, history says: take chips off the table. 🥹 

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋