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OVERVIEW

Market Down 50% But I've Grown So Much As A Person 👴

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Before We Begin: What We’re Measuring& Why 🏫

Today we’re going to look at tickers through two on-chain metrics: Suply In Profit (SIP) and MVRV Long/Short Difference. 🧠 

Supply in Profit (SIP) measures what percentage of an asset's circulating supply last moved at a price below the current market price. High SIP means most holders are profitable (and potentially itching to sell). Low SIP means widespread pain - and historically, that's where recoveries are built, because the sellers who were going to sell already have.

MVRV Long/Short Difference compares the relative profit positions of long-term holders versus short-term speculators. Positive means veterans are being rewarded for patience. Negative means the people who just showed up are doing better than the people who've been here for years - an abnormal, unstable condition.

Together they create a diagnostic picture. The signal we're hunting: SIP extremely low but MVRV only mildly negative. That divergence means the surface damage is worse than the structural damage - the long-term holders haven't capitulated despite the profitability collapse.

Historically, that's where the strongest recoveries start. 👍️

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Internet Computer: The Light Was a Train 🚂

$ICP ( ▼ 5.6% )’s Supply in Profit: 32.2%, the 2.4th percentile since launch. MVRV: -0.230, negative for 574 consecutive days. Two-thirds of all ICP is underwater. Long-term holders haven't been in a better position than short-term speculators since July 2024. 😭

Five hundred and seventy-four days.

That's a relationship your friends stopped asking about because the answer is always the same and the look on your face when you give it makes everyone uncomfortable.

The Problem. Well, One Of Them At Least

ICP has spent 69.6% of its entire tradeable existence with a negative MVRV - worst of the bunch today, not close. One sustained positive window: 6ish months in 2024. It ended with a complete collapse back into negative territory.

Like a guy who makes it to his six-month sobriety chip, drives home from the ceremony, and pulls into the first liquor store parking lot he sees.

The Bull Cas… Is There One?

SIP (supply In Profit) at the 2.4th percentile is genuine extreme distress. MVRV improved 1.47pts from the May nadir. Prior 581-day negative streak eventually led to a $3-to-$21 rally. Mission 70 proposes cutting inflation 70%.

The Bear Case

574 days and counting. Every recovery window came with an expiration date printed in font size 4 on the back of the receipt. The 2024 positive window lasted six months, then failed completely.

Verdict: Structurally Bearish

Recovery windows exist. They're narrow, they're fragile, and they arrive with expiration dates that show up faster than the holders expect. This is an asset you trade, not one you marry. If the MVRV approaches zero, take the win and leave. Don't unpack your bags. 🫡

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Dogecoin: Trust Me Bro 🐩

The Bull Run That Never Was

$DOGE ( ▼ 2.61% )’s MVRV has been negative since March 6, 2025 - 329 straight days. During that time, SIP rallied from 28% to 85% in the summer bounce. Charts looked like a recovery. Stocktwits, X, and crypto social everywhere celebrated. The MVRV never once crossed zero. Peaked at -0.060.

The long-term holders never got paid. Not once. The 2025 rally was a fresh coat of paint on a condemned building - the open house went great, the inspector's report would make you cry. Short-term tourists showed up, made money, left.

The veterans who held through the pain are still holding through the pain, except now there's more of it and the IOU has more zeroes.

Meh

SIP spent 14 consecutive weeks between 50-56%. The chart looks like a cardiac monitor right before someone calls time of death - technically registering, but nobody in the room is reaching for the paddles with any real enthusiasm.

The Case For

Double Danger Zone resolved bullishly in all four prior instances. DOGE ETF launched January 2026. At $0.10, down 86% from ATH - steep discount if you believe.

The Case Against

Forward returns from around 50% SIP are a literal coin flip. 329-day MVRV negative streak is longer than the entire 2022 bear market. DOGE has never demonstrated the ability to stay MVRV-positive for more than a few months at a stretch.

Verdict: Neutral

BTC and ETH are showing you account records. DOGE is showing you an IOU with "trust me bro" scrawled in crayon on the back of a Wendy's napkin. The data doesn't hate DOGE. It just doesn't trust it. 😶

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin: The Dog That Didn't Bark 🫡

$BTC ( ▼ 2.02% )’s Supply in Profit is at 55.1% - the 8.9th percentile in seven years of weekly data. Nearly half of all BTC is underwater. MVRV Long/Short Difference: -0.090, negative for 70 days. Mean SIP is 78.4%. We are not in the neighborhood of normal. We're not even in the same county.

This is territory reserved for genuine crises - COVID, Luna/FTX, and now whatever you want to call a 46% drawdown from $126K with no protocol failure to blame.

The Drop

99.1% to 55.1%. 43.9 percentage points in 133 days. Largest organic SIP drawdown in the entire dataset. COVID was faster but shallower. The 2022 bear was deeper but it had three exchange implosions as an excuse. This one is like a barn collapsing on a dead-calm day.

Every prior trip below 56% SIP saw MVRV between -0.28 and -0.37. Right now? -0.090.

The long-term holders haven't capitulated. It's the difference between a town where every storefront is boarded up and a town where the water treatment plant exploded - both look bad from the highway, but only one is actually uninhabitable.

Double Danger Zone

SIP below 60% AND MVRV below zero: happened four times before. All four preceded major multi-month rallies. Forward returns from ~55% SIP: 63-88% recovery within 12 weeks. Perfect batting average.

Yeah, But…

MVRV's only been negative 70 days. In 2022 it stayed negative for 413. There's no cosmic law that says this resolves quickly. The macro backdrop has all the warmth and clarity of a February funeral in Duluth, MN - everyone's there, nobody wants to be, and the eulogy keeps getting longer.

Verdict: Cautiously Oversold

The MVRV shallowness is the dog that didn't bark. When profitability craters this hard but the veterans refuse to tap out, that's where recoveries are built. 🧱

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum: The Frequent Flyer at the ER 🏥

If Bitcoin's decline is a barn collapsing on a calm day, $ETH ( ▼ 3.16% ) is the guy who keeps showing up to the emergency room swearing this time it's different while the triage nurses exchange knowing glances and pull up his chart from ten months ago. "Same arm? Yeah, same arm."

93.6% to 37.5% in 133 days - 56.1 percentage points, steepest of the bunch. The BTC-ETH SIP spread blew out from near-zero to 17.7pp in five weeks. ETH is struggling relative to BTC, which is itself having a historically bad episode.

The Divergence

January 8 to 29: MVRV improved from -0.082 to -0.046 while SIP collapsed from 76.7% to 41.5%. Opposite directions. The newer ETH is getting vaporized but the long-term holders aren't tapping out. At 56 days negative, this is the shallowest MVRV reading for a comparable SIP level in ETH history.

Could Be Better… Soon?

April 2025 already proved the playbook: SIP hit 27.6%, then ripped to 99.9% in 18 weeks. Double Danger Zone has resolved bullishly every time, 8-12 weeks.

Truth Sucks

This is the second time ETH's been below 40% SIP in ten months. First time's a crisis. Second time's a habit. At some point you stop blaming the pothole and start wondering if the car's alignment is shot.

Verdict: Deeply Oversold

The short-term signal is the strongest of the group - 2.4th percentile with a near-perfect recovery rate. But ETH keeps checking into the ER, and eventually the doctors stop treating the injury and start asking lifestyle questions.

Best short-term setup. Most concerning long-term trajectory. 🧠 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano: The 44th Time 🤔

$ADA ( ▼ 3.49% ) Supply in Profit: 14.1%, the 9.7th percentile - worst reading in this entire five-asset series by a country mile. MVRV: -0.237, negative for 98 days. Eighty-six percent of all Cardano is underwater. A mass grave with a ticker symbol and a subreddit. 🪦 

80.9% to 14.1% in 175 days. 66.7 percentage points - largest SIP collapse of all five we’ve looked at today. Cardano fell off a cliff, hit a ledge, briefly got everyone's hopes up, then fell off another cliff. The January bounce to 33.7% was the ledge. The hope was the cruelest part.

ADA's median SIP is 46%. Being majority-underwater is Cardano's natural state. Over 55% of its existence has been spent below 50% SIP. The condition that would be a generational buying opportunity in Bitcoin is just a Tuesday for ADA.

History Says It Stops Hurting…

43 prior instances of SIP below 15%. Forward returns: every single one produced higher readings within 12 weeks. Zero failures. Magnitude varies - muted in 2022, explosive in 2023 - but the direction has never missed.

… But Experience Says Pain Is Normal

ADA's recoveries are violent in both directions. Dips to 8-10% SIP are within precedent. Even a "recovery" means getting back to majority-underwater, because that's just what ADA is.

Verdict: Insanely Deeply Oversold

Strongest contrarian signal in the series. This exact movie has played 43 times and the ending has never changed. The only question is whether this is the 44th time the pattern holds… or the first time it doesn't. 🤷 

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋