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OVERVIEW
It’s Not Rektember Anymore, It’s Just September 🙏
Here’s What’s Happening 👇
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Rektember Called In Sick 🍂
Today we're doing two things. 🧠
First, a quick run down of what happened in August 2026 compared to what we thought would happen based on historical price action. And second, we're moving on to September, which has a worse reputation than August and, until recently, mostly deserved it.
We're looking at four tickers today: the Total Market Cap (TOTAL), the Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL3ES, which strips out BTC, ETH, and stablecoins), $BTC ( ▲ 1.0% ) , and $XRP ( ▲ 2.39% ) . The last one earns its spot - XRP runs a completely different calendar than everything else in here. 🗓️
One housekeeping note: I send this out around 1730ish EST, so there are several hours left until August officially closes. I'm using roughly the 0900 EST print as the monthly close, which is either completely fine or, given how this market and honestly this entire world is behaving, a phenomenally stupid idea that'll look ridiculous by the time you read this.
The month is up more than 21%, so it'd take a spectacular eight hours to change the shape of the story. Crypto has produced spectacular eight hours before, usually while I was asleep. 🤷
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So August Was Pretty Good 🍽
Four weeks ago in the July 31, 2026 Cryptotwits newsletter, I compared crypto’s performance in August to Tommy Wiseau's The Room and called it roadkill. As of this morning, the Total Crypto Market Cap is up 21.6%. 😬
The image below shows what I wrote about August according to historical data. Some of the expected price action behavior for August held and some didn’t.
Click to enlarge.
Like I said, at the time of writing and by the time of sending this out August is several hours from closing, but so far August 2026 looks pretty damn good:
TOTAL: +21.6%
Altcoins: +22.4%
BTC: +23.8%
XRP: +28.3%
That's the third-largest August on record for the Total Crypto Market Cap, Altcoin Market Cap and XRP, and the second-largest for bitcoin. Bigger than 10 of the previous 12 Augusts on TOTAL and 11 of 12 on BTC.
One thing about the Altcoin Market Cap though: August 2026 changed things.
Click to enlarge.
For the Altcoin Market, August was the worst performing month. August 2026 moved it up to third-worst. Just and FYI. Let’s see what September could bring us. 👇
STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇
$ETH.X big move inbound…
Golden cross is less than $4 away from crossing.
It’s about to go down!
— Tom_Ace (@Tom_Ace37)
4:55 PM • Aug 30, 2026
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
September: What History Says 📕
Tomorrow we get to welcome September. 👋
Every September Since 2014 - Click to enlarge.
September sucks, historically. It’s also a bit a mixed bag depending on what you’re looking at - so a mixed bag of suck. But unlike August, at least September’s average and median are fairly similar. Unless you’re XRP.
Sept Avg & Median - Click to enlarge.
XRP’s does very well in September. But Bitcoin, the Total Crypto Market, and the Altcoin Market? September is something they’d rather avoid.
Sept Rankings - Click to enlarge.
September is the second-worst month of the year for the total market and Bitcoin, behind only August. Fourth-worst for altcoins. But for XRP, it’s the third-best month on the calendar. XRP's worst month is November. Its best is July. 🎆
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
September Doesn’t Crash, It Leaks 💧
For the assets we’re looking at today, September is the lowest-volatility month of the entire year - except for XRP (Sept is the 6th least volatile month). Standard deviation of 8.0% on TOTAL against a 22.4% average across all twelve months.
Shhhh - Click to enlarge.
No September has produced anything near a tail event. The Total Crypto Market’s best September in twelve years is +7.5% and its worst is -16.9%. Again, XRP stands out:
One Of These Is Not Like The Other - Click to enlarge.
XRP’s average returns are higher and deeper than BTC, the Altcoin Market, and the Total Crypto Market: nearly +30% when green and -15% when red. 😕
STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇
$BTC.X $90K plus this week
— N/A (@SmartiePantss)
11:50 AM • Aug 31, 2026
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
We Used To Call September Rektember, Now It’s Just September 🍂
Through 2022, the Total Crypto Market won 2 of 9 Septembers with a median of -6.46%. Bitcoin the same. Altcoins won 1 of 6. 🔴
September Got Better? - Click to enlarge.
Then 2023, 2024 and 2025 all closed green.
All three of those Septembers followed a red or flat August. Which brings us to this next part:
Not A Lot Of Data - Click to enlarge.
After an August gain above +15%, September has gone green zero times out of seven observations across all four assets. XRP's median September in that setup is -21.68%.
Ya, small sample size. But I work with what I’ve got. 🟢
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
What September 2026 Is Walking Into 🚶
The Good: August cleared +15% on all four assets, and that setup is 0-for-7. The August-September correlation is negative everywhere. All three recent green Septembers followed a weak August; this one follows the opposite. 🫂
September Expectations - Click to enlarge.
The Bad: The market is in its strongest two-month impulse since 2021. Q3 is running +29.1% for the Total Crypto Market Cap and +32.9% for Bitcoin with a month left. September has closed green three years running on everything. And the setup we're in - red first half into a monster August - had never happened before this year, so the base rates are describing a different market.
The Ugly: The Total Crypto Market Cap sits near $2.60T this morning, against an August high of $2.71T and a 2026 low of $1.99T set in June. Bitcoin is near $77,800 after opening the month at $62,850, with a 2026 low of $57,749 in July.
A September that holds the August range makes this a real trend change. 🧠
OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long, Long Time Ago ⌛
August 31
1056 - Byzantine Empress Theodora dies without an heir, ending the Macedonian dynasty after nearly 200 years.
1422 - England’s Henry V dies of dysentery in France. Shite happens.
1886 - A roughly magnitude-7 earthquake strikes Charleston, killing about 60 people and damaging thousands of buildings.
1888 - Mary Ann Nichols is murdered in London, becoming the first generally accepted victim of Jack the Ripper.
1895 - Ferdinand von Zeppelin patents his steerable rigid airship design.
1907 - Britain and Russia divide Persia into spheres of influence without asking Persia.
1920 - Polish cavalry defeats a larger Soviet force at Komarów in one of history’s final major cavalry battles.
1935 - Franklin Roosevelt signs America’s first Neutrality Act, attempting to keep the United States out of another European war.
1957 - Malaya gains independence from Britain after more than 170 years of colonial control.
1962 - Trinidad and Tobago becomes independent from Britain.
1986 - The Soviet passenger liner Admiral Nakhimov collides with a cargo ship and sinks in minutes, killing 423 people.
1991 - Kyrgyzstan declares independence from the Soviet Union.
1997 - Princess Diana, Dodi Fayed and driver Henri Paul die after their car crashes inside a Paris tunnel.
2005 - A panic-driven stampede on Baghdad’s Al-Aaimmah Bridge kills more than 950 people, many of them women and children.
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋