OVERVIEW

Tomorrow Is The First Day Of Awful-gust 😩

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

What’s happening today? Fun is happening today. Fun in the form of data and stats about just how full of suck the month of August is. If August was a movie, it’s Tommy Wiseau’s The Room. 🎥

Today we’re going to look at two pieces of crypto data: The Total Market Cap (TOTAL) and the Altcoin Market Cap (Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins) and how they’ve historically performed in the month of August.

If you’re looking for those charts in TradingView, the Total Market Cap Chart listed as TOTAL and the Altcoin Market Cap Chart we’re using is listed as TOTAL3ES.

Quick Note On The Altcoin Market Data

the altcoin market was worth $40+ million in 2014. I’ve instead analyzed the market going back to 2017 when it was at $14 billion and looked like, well, a market. Also, if I used the oldest data for the altcoin market going back to 2014, the results would make August look more ‘meh’ than the roadkill it really is. 🦌

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
August Is Crypto's Worst Month And Its Biggest Month 🎰

Some wildly different performance metrics for August. 👇️ 

Positive average on both. Negative median on both.

The aggregate crypto market is going on four consecutive red Augusts - in the suck since 2022.

Take out 2017, and the bullish case goes poof for altcoins, from +18% to zero. Take out 2021 and the average is -8%. Ouch.

And out of all the months of the year, August is, historically, the worst month for altcoins and the broader crypto market. 😭 

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins Batting Average, Usain Bolt Exit Velocity 💨

How does crypto do when August closes in the green vs. the red? Well, insanely divergent, so that makes total sense for this market. 📔

That +42% is the highest average green return of any month on the calendar for all of crypto. The altcoin figure of +60.36% ranks second, behind December.

The red Augusts are unremarkable. Middle of the pack on both. June, November, and January all hit harder when they go wrong. August's worst month ever for crypto is nearly -19% and eleven other months in the sample beat it for damage.

So August doesn't hurt more than other months. It hurts more often.

And here’s something you might not read anywhere else (well, there’s a bunch in here that can’t get anywhere else #chestthump): August has never been the best month of any year. Not one.

Might as well keep the Minnesota sports analogy going here: August is the Minnesota Vikings in the post season: a regular, seasonal, disappointment. 📆

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So. Anyway To Tell How Much Suck August Will Have? 🤔

The answer is a solid shmaybe. The Total Market Cap data is going to be a little more useful than the who nine pieces of data I’ve got for altcoins. And to be honest, crypto is still so new that it doesn’t have a the kind of multidecade history analysts would like. We literally work with what we have. 🤏

Relief rallies after a bad Q2 are normal. August is when the market checks whether the rally had anything behind it. Historically the audit turns up irregularities. August has historically required real momentum coming in. A polite July bounce doesn’t qualify, and a broken first half has never been repaired in August.

The altcoin version is directionally similar and statistically thin. Three red first halves since 2017 - 2018, 2022, 2025 - produced August returns of -21%, -10%, and +4%. One green out of three. 

Fun fact: Every red Q2 for crypto (and alts) has been followed by a green July. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Does August Determine Q3? Maybe 🔢

August is the middle child of Q3, but might also be the one calling the shots. 📱

The combined July-August return has matched the final direction of Q3 in every observation on record. Never missed. But that’s mostly about how much of a bore September is. The standard deviation for September is a whopping 8% for all of crypto and nearly 10% for the altcoin market.

If you want a stat to tell your besties, here’s one: The total crypto market has produced ZERO green Q3s in twelve years. Zip. And the altcoin market was in the same boat until… last year. Q3 2025 it ended green. Not that it helped. 🤦 

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• The main piece asked what happens if you skip August - testing BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, LTC, and XMR to see whether selling before August and buying back in September helped or hurt.

• Bitcoin’s August history looked awful - but skipping August historically beat holding by about 60%.

• ETH was the exception-ish - August average return was +6.1%, but median was still -7.4%.

• Monero was the weird alpha goblin - August ranked 1st for XMR, with a monster average return of +62.99%, and skipping August nuked gains by 94%.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Algorand was the quiet overachiever - huge transaction growth, record TPS, millions of accounts, and still one of the most beaten-down holder bases imaginable.

• Zcash was the privacy comeback candidate - miserable price history, but still active and positioned as the middle ground between Bitcoin’s transparency and Monero’s full privacy.

• Stellar was the RWA tokenization play - Taurus brought custody and issuance tools to Stellar, and the piece noted that roughly $360M of the estimated $1.7B RWA market was already on Stellar.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 31

• 781 - Mount Fuji produced its earliest recorded eruption.

• 1498 - Christopher Columbus reached Trinidad on his third voyage.

• 1715 - A hurricane sank ten Spanish treasure ships off Florida, killing hundreds and scattering a fortune.

• 1777 - Lafayette, age 19, became an unpaid American major general.

• 1790 - The United States issued its first patent, for an improved potash-making process.

• 1917 - Passchendaele began, turning Belgian farmland into one of World War I’s bloodiest mud pits.

• 1932 - Hitler’s Nazi Party became the largest party in Germany’s parliament.

• 1976 - NASA released the “Face on Mars” image, launching decades of alien-conspiracy fuel.

• 1991 - The U.S. and Soviet Union signed START I, requiring thousands of nuclear weapons to be dismantled.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎 

Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋