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OVERVIEW
Is It Really Uptober? đ€
Tomorrow is Up-tober. đ„ł
But is it really that good of a month for crypto? October is a great month for some, but not for others. Weâre going to look at how well October has treated several tickers in todayâs Cryptotwits newsletter.
Also, on Thursday at 11 AM EST, if youâre around:
We are looking for the loudest communities to speak at our upcoming space đ
Current lineup: @injective@davidgokhshtein@HashPackApp@KenduInu@jonmorgan_HODL
â Cryptotwits (@CryptotwitsHQ)
3:02 PM âą Sep 30, 2025
BITCOIN
Bitcoin - October Plays Cleanup Crew After Septemberâs Bloodbath đ
Historical October Scorecard
Average return +27.63%, median +14.89%
Rank: 3rd out of 12 months, firmly in the podium pack
11 green, 4 red - 73.3% win rate
Longest green streak: 6 years straight (2019-2024)
Longest red streak: 2 years (2011-2012)
Fact Snacks
Octoberâs never once been the worst month. From 2010 to 2024, zero times.
It only wore the crown as best month three times: 2010 (+211%), 2015, 2021. Strong, but hardly dominant. Maybe Uptoberâs myth is louder than its stats.
Intra-month range averages 49% in October vs 47% across all months.
Halving-year Octobers average 11%, but non-halving ones since 2010 average 16%.
Best month 20% of the time, top-3 in a third of years. Not bad for spooky season.
After a red September, October averages +9.8% with a 62.5% win rate. After a green September, itâs +20.9% with 83% wins.
October flipped zero years from red YTD to green YTD. It boosts, it doesnât resurrect.
In three years - 2010, 2015, 2021 - October alone delivered half or more of the yearâs full gains. đ
Q4 Scorecard
Best avg quarter: usually Q4, then Q2. Calendar magic isnât a myth here.
When green: Q4 tends to deliver the fattest average winners.
When red: Q1/Q3 are typically the âless badâ reds; Q4 reds, when they happen, are heavier.
In A Nutshell
October is the redemption arc. After Septemberâs graveyard, October statistically plays savior, delivering some of the strongest gains in Bitcoinâs history. Itâs volatile, itâs streaky, and when it lands, it often sets the tone for Q4.
Date Range For This Analysis: August 2010 - September 2025
ETHEREUM
Ethereum - Uptober? More Like Meh-tober đ€·ââïž
Historical October Scorecard
Average return +4.79%, median +1.12%
Rank: 10th out of 12 months - firmly in the basement club
6 green, 3 red - 66.7% win rate
Longest green streak: 5 years straight (2019-2023)
Longest red streak: just 1 year at a time
Fact Snacks
Octoberâs never once been the worst month. Zero times in nine years.
But itâs also never been the best month.
Average intramonth range for October is 27% vs 47% for ETH overall. Less drama, more predictable swings.
Bear Octobers donât crater like youâd expect. Even the red ones are mild compared to true ETH drawdowns.
Volatility dips vs September. Less fireworks, more slow grind.
Macro spillovers matter: equities often perk up post-September, dragging ETH along for the ride.
Q4 Scorecard
Best avg quarter: Q2 edges out, Q4 respectable, Q1/Q3 more meh.
When green: Q2 green quarters are the best bang.
When red: Q3 reds are often shallower than Q4 reds. ETH throws smaller tantrums outside 2018-style wipeouts.
In A Nutshell
Octoberâs no graveyard for ETH, but itâs no rocket either. It lives in statistical bottom tier - rarely great, rarely catastrophic. Green months appear, but the upside is tame outside 2021âs blowout. Compared to September, ETH sees less bleed and more breather room.
If September dumps you, October might throw a towel instead of a lifeline.
Date Range For This Analysis: April 2016 - September 2025
XRP
XRP - October Pretends To Help, Then Trips You On The Stairs đ
Historical October Scorecard
Average return -1.23%, median -2.22%
Rank: 10th out of 12 months - near the bottom
3 green, 7 red - 30% win rate
Longest green streak: 1 year (never back-to-back)
Longest red streak: 4 straight Octobers
Skipping October would have improved returns by +23.3% vs HODL
Fact Snacks
October has never been XRPâs best or worst month in any year.
Top-3 month only 1 in 10 Octobers, bottom-3 also 1 in 10.
After a red September, October averages +4.1% with a 40% win rate. After a green September? -6.6% and just 20% wins. Uptober? Not here.
Correlation between September and October sits at -0.54. Strong mean-reversion tilt, but trading it would break your brain.
No YTD rescues: October never flipped a negative year positive. Not once.
October never delivered â„50% of any full-year gain. Side character, not star.
All-time-high monthly closes in October? Zero.
If Octoberâs green, November is red 66.7% of the time. If Octoberâs red, November flips up 42.9%. Momentum traders cry here.
Q4 Scorecard
Best avg quarter: Q4 leads by a mile on average, but the median isnât nearly as pretty. Classic XRP.
When green: Q4 greens go orbital.
When red: Q2/Q3 reds usually hurt less than Q4 reds. If Q4 misses, it misses hard.
In A Nutshell
October doesnât bless XRP, it leeches from it. No ATHs, no YTD rescues, no standout rallies. What you get is mean reversion, muted volatility compared to the rest of the year, and a month that consistently undermines the Uptober hype.
Date Range For This Analysis: February 2015 to September 2025.
CARDANO
Cardano â October Is A Habitual Buzzkill đ
Historical October Scorecard
Average return -3.72%, median -7.16%
Rank: 10th out of 12 months
2 green, 5 red - 28.6% win rate
Longest green streak: 1 year
Longest red streak: 3 straight Octobers
Skipping October improves compounded returns by +35.2%
Fact Snacks
October never took best or worst month. Zero crowns, zero dunce caps.
Also never cracked top-3 or bottom-3 in any year. Pure mid.
After red Septembers: October averages -2.93% with 33.33% wins. After green Septembers: -8.46% with 0.0% wins. Uptober didnât RSVP.
Within each year, October was never the most volatile month and was the calmest in 5 different years. ADA naps.
November follow-through is messy: after up Octobers, November is down 50.0%. After down Octobers, November flips up 40.0%.
October beats Septemberâs return in 5 of 7 years. Lesser evil energy.
Red Octobers finish ugly: closes sit in the bottom 32% of their monthly range on average. No bounce, just bleed.
Q4 Scorecard
Best avg quarter: Q1 or Q4 depends on the sample slice, but the edge isnât massive.
When green: Q4 greens can look decent; Q2 greens frequently underwhelm.
When red: Q2/Q3 reds are less savage; Q4 red quarters bite.
In A Nutshell
October is Cardanoâs seasonal dead zone. Not dramatic. Just quietly bad. If youâre trying to be clever, skipping October has been the only âedgeâ that actually behaved like one. đ
Date Range For This Analysis: January 2018 - September 2025
CHAINLINK
Chainlink â October Shows Up Like It Owns The Place đ
Historical October Scorecard
Average return +27.42%, median +24.95%
Rank: 2nd out of 12 months
6 green, 1 red - 85.7% win rate
Longest green streak: 6 straight Octobers
Longest red streak: 1
Skipping October wrecks compounded returns by -79.5% vs HODL
Fact Snacks
Worst October was barely red at -3.66% in 2024. For crypto, thatâs a polite cough.
Win rate 85.7% with median +24.95%. Not one freaking year pulling the mean. Broad strength.
Skipping October is portfolio arson. Excluding it nukes compounded returns by about -79.5%.
Frequently a top-3 month within the year while never being the yearâs worst.
Q4 Scorecard
Best avg quarter: Q4 isnât king the way October is, but itâs generally top-two with Q2/Q3 in the mix.
When green: Q4 green quarters deliver the cleanest upside.
When red: Q1/Q2 reds tend to be shallower; Q4 red quarters are rare but not gentle.
In A Nutshell
October is LINKâs comfort zone. High hit rate, big average win, tiny downside when it misses. Itâs the month where integrations and headlines seem to translate into price, then Q4 does whatever it wants.
If youâre picking an Uptober poster child, this is the one. đ„
Date Range For This Analysis: March 2018 - September 2025
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. đ
