OVERVIEW

Insult To Injury: Crypto Makes Support Group And No One Showed Up 🥹

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
WTF Is Happening? Maybe ETH’s On-Chain Data Can Help 🤔 

ETH’s on-chain reads aren’t screaming euphoria or doom. They’re pointing to a market that took a hit, cooled hard, and is now sitting in a spot where upside doesn’t require divine intervention, just the absence of fresh stupidity. 😖 

TL;DR Net Eead: neutral leaning bullish, with good risk-asymmetry if inflows don’t spike and short-term holders stop bleeding.

• Positioning looks washed out rather than cooked.

• Short-term holders are underwater, which usually means sellers are tired or already gone.

• Distribution cooled off. Exchange inflows eased. That’s what you want before an impulsive push.

• If we get a sudden inflow spike or a reflexive MVRV pop back above 1.1 without price acceptance, temper the hopium.

Metric-By-Metric Read

MVRV 30-Day

Current: −0.107, sitting near a 30-day low with a −1.41 z-score.

Short-term holders are in the red. That’s not bearish. That’s fuel. Extended time sub-0.0 tends to precede relief legs because marginal sellers capitulate, then run out. We’re oversold. Bullish-leaning for now.

Exchange Inflows

Latest: 352.6k, about flat vs 30-day average with a tiny −0.11 z-score, and down 46.7k over 7 days.

Deposits aren’t rushing to exchanges to sell. No “get me out” energy. If this stays muted while price grinds, buyers get cleaner traction. Watch for single-day spikes north of the recent 30-day max.

Network Realized Profit/Loss

Latest: +$20.3M, way down from earlier monster prints, 30-day z-score −0.67.

Distribution cooled. Big profit-taking waves are gone for now. That usually gives price room to recover because you’re not fighting every uptick with a wall of sellers ring-the-register-ing.

If this flips to persistent 9-figure realized profit while price stalls, that’s your classic top-of-range churn.

Percent Of Total Supply In Profit

Latest: 83.8%, down 4.7 percentage points over the week, 30-day z-score −1.61, near the month’s floor.

Broad profitability backed off. Sentiment pressure eased. You want this in the low-to-mid 80s during setups because it leaves room for expansion without tripping euphoria alarms. Above 92ish% and sticky, start looking for distribution risk.

My Takeaways

• Bias: neutral-to-bullish while 30-day MVRV stays ≤ 0.0 and exchange inflows remain below their recent 30-day mean.

• Confirmation: higher highs on price with realized PnL staying tame tells you supply isn’t dumping into strength.

• Invalidation: sharp exchange inflow spike plus a jump in realized profit while price stalls. That’s your sellers ambushing the rally.

• Watch levels: if the 30-day MVRV rips to 0.10–0.15 in a day or two without price acceptance, expect a slap back. If “Total in Profit” rips back above 90% quickly, start trimming the victory lap.

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Friday Stonk Market Recap 🔢 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Why Bitcoin’s Real Clock Runs on a 10-Year Cycle ⏲️ 

Every time Bitcoin sneezes, someone blames or blesses the “four-year cycle.”
You know the script: supply halves, price moons, euphoria peaks, then we rinse and repeat. 🌊 

It’s a tidy story. Too tidy.

The halving cycle built its fanbase because it worked - twice. Hell, even I’ve been a fan of it! 2017 and 2021 both delivered post-halving bull runs so clean you could chart them with a ruler. But markets grow up.

Bitcoin in 2025 is not the Bitcoin of 2016. ETFs, derivatives, institutional positioning, and global liquidity now move this market more than miner issuance/rewards ever will.

Hell there was a pre-halving all-time high, which should be impossible under their logic. Market depth, derivative structure, and fiat on-ramps have completely changed the feedback loop.

A Different Clock

I’m a student of Gann Theory. Gann believed time creates price - that markets vibrate to predictable harmonics. The halving may be a beat, but it’s not the song.

If you chart Bitcoin using Gann’s decennial framework, the map snaps into focus:

• Year 0 (2020): The COVID crash - a textbook Gann “climactic completion,” wiping out the prior campaign and resetting the decade’s cycle.

• Year 1 (2021): Explosive rebound.

• Years 2 - 4 (2022 - 2024): Repair phase - consolidation, apathy, rebuild.

• Year 5 (2025): Strong expansion and volatility - new highs mixed with sharp reactions.

• Year 6 (2026): The natural correction.

• Year 7 (2027): Renewed strength, continuation of the main trend.

• Year 8 (2028): Maturity phase - the market trades heavy, participation peaks, and distribution quietly begins near all-time highs.

• Year 9 (2029): The exhaustion year - volatility returns, early cracks form, and the strongest hands quietly exit while late entrants chase the final move.

• Year 10 (2030): The next climactic completion - a fast, brutal reset that clears the board and begins the new decade’s cycle.

There’s more to this because really, we’re in the back half of the 20-year Master Cycle.

The Bigger Picture: The 10-Year Inside the 20-Year

This current 10-year cycle isn’t standalone. Like I said, it’s the back half of Bitcoin’s first 20-year master cycle, which began in 2009-2010 with Bitcoin’s birth and first price data.

In Gann’s framework, twenty years marks a great cycle:

• 2010–2019: Growth and Discovery - the childhood of Bitcoin.

• 2020–2029: Maturity and Distribution - the adulthood phase where it proves whether it’s infrastructure or just speculation.

What that means behavior-wise:

• Late-cycle rallies stretch further and turn violent.

• Institutional saturation slows the tempo but increases amplitude.

• Corrections grow sharper but shorter.

• A final speculative blow-off and broad reset complete the 20-year rhythm around 2029-2030.

So this decade is the climax of Bitcoin’s first great 20-year wave - the chapter where it either secures its role as a global settlement layer or dies to be reborn.

The Forecast That Called The Shots

In June 2024, I published my Square-of-Nine forecast for 2025 - complete with degree dates and price rings. Every date, every level was posted before the year began.

And here’s how some of those time and price squares faired:

The black boxes represent swings that were within a few days of the forecasted date along with the nearest forecasted price level.

The blue boxes show two examples of the the exact date and the nearest price level along with what that candlestick’s OHLC was.

My Takeaway

The sell-off we’re seeing is partly four-year followers doing what their chart told them to do. But in my opinion, they’re watching the wrong clock.

If you trade the four-year script, you’ll catch sentiment waves. If you watch the ten-year cycle, you’ll catch the campaign.

March 2020 was the reset. The next major reaction will be the Year 6 low in 2026. From there, Year 7 should rebuild into a new leg higher. That’s the path I’m looking at - not the calendar halving rhythm. 🩰 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🏦 DAW London 2025: Tokenized Money Market Funds Take Center Stage

This year’s Digital Asset Week in London was suits-only - the era of hoodies and slogans is dead. Every major TradFi name from Goldman to HSBC was there, and the theme was simple: liquidity, interoperability, and tokenized money market funds (TMMFs) as the killer app. Panels agreed that tokenized funds are turning collateral into instant, yield-bearing instruments, bla bla bla. Forbes.

💵 RWA Market Hits $34B as SEC Calls Tokenization a “Top Priority”

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is officially Wall Street’s new obsession - the on-chain RWA market just hit $33.98B, up 10% in a month, while BlackRock and CMB International roll out tokenized money market funds that meet the Genius Act’s new U.S. stablecoin standards. Stablecoin transfers soared to $3.87T, but retail users barely budged, showing that institutions - not degen traders - now run the flow. PANews.

🥇 Gold-Backed Tokens Soar as PAXG Trades Above Physical Gold

As Bitcoin cooled, tokenized gold went ballistic - Pax Gold (PAXG) hit $4,407, even topping spot gold’s record $4,364. Billions in 24-hour volume poured into PAXG and Tether’s XAUT as traders fled volatility for digital gold vaults. But beware: these tokens can trade at premiums - and premiums can vanish fast. Insights.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🐋 Aave Whales Are Quietly Steering DeFi’s Liquidity Engine

Mega-holders on Aave are looping ETH, leveraging stablecoins, and swinging rates across the protocol - sometimes yanking hundreds of millions and spiking borrowing costs overnight. These “whale loops” amplify yield… until they liquidate and trigger cascading crashes. It’s financial Darwinism at blockchain speed, and regulators are starting to notice the risks of DeFi’s unregulated leverage jungle. Aave.

💰 Stripe-Backed Tempo Raises $500M to Build the “Payments Blockchain”

Stripe’s stealth blockchain baby, Tempo, just scored a $5B valuation in a massive Series A led by Thrive Capital and Greenoaks. The Ethereum-compatible network is built for high-speed payments and already counts OpenAI, Visa, and Shopify as partners. The Block.

📜 Ondo Finance Pushes Back on Nasdaq’s Tokenization Plan

Ondo Finance told the SEC to slow down before greenlighting Nasdaq’s proposal to settle “securities in token form” via DTC. The firm wants more transparency around how clearing would actually work. Ondo’s message saying don’t tokenize Wall Street without reading the fine print. The Block.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🏦 Jefferies CEO says bank was “defrauded” by First Brands amid bankruptcy fallout

🥷 Gaps in crypto rules can be exploited, warns Financial Stability Board

🔽 JPMorgan report: Crypto downturn driven by native traders, not institutions

🕵️ In the Age of Surveillance, Privacy Coins are having a moment

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋