OVERVIEW

Green Bags Any Flags? 😰

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
MVRV Pops, Flows Bleed 🩸

On-chain data gives traders live x-rays of crowd behavior. Two of the tools we’re looking at today are the 60-day MVRV and Exchange Flow Balance (EFB). 🩻 

• MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) looks at how “in profit” short-term holders are. If it spikes, wallets are heavy with unrealized gains and the odds of profit-taking rise. If it’s flat or negative, stress is higher and dip-buy conditions improve.

• Exchange Flow Balance tracks coins moving on or off exchanges. Net inflows often signal selling pressure loading up, while sustained outflows drain supply from the open market.

Put together, these two paint a risk map: rising MVRV plus inflows = distribution danger; low MVRV plus outflows = quiet accumulation. It’s not a crystal ball, but it does give you the difference between “froth” and “fuel.”

Bitcoin (BTC) - MVRV Stretch Meets Shrinking Exchange Supply

Bitcoin’s 60-day MVRV just clocked in at 8.4%, which means a lot of short-term holders are finally sitting on green bags. That MVRV also climbed +9.3 pp over the past month, a sharp sentiment shift.

Exchange Flow Balance (EFB) tells a different story. Last week showed −2,491 BTC in net outflows and −23,988 BTC over the last 4 weeks. Near-term supply keeps leaking off exchanges even though MVRV says the herd is more profitable.

• Rising MVRV + outflows = healthier grind higher.

• Risk only spikes if MVRV jumps above 10% while exchange flows flip to +10k BTC or more. That’s the distribution cocktail where sellers pile in just as latecomers arrive.

Outlook: Bullish, but not bulletproof. BTC has room to run as long as exchange balances keep bleeding and MVRV stays under the double-digit danger zone. Watch that 10% threshold like it’s a landmine - one that you can see and you know where it’s at. 💣️ 

Ethereum (ETH) - Quiet MVRV, Relentless Exodus

Ethereum’s 60-day MVRV sits at a mild 4.5%, basically flat on the month. No froth, no panic. Just… meh.

But the flow data? It’s screaming. ETH has booked 13 straight weeks of outflows: −146k ETH this week, −1.62M ETH over 4 weeks, and nearly −5M ETH in 13 weeks. That’s coins vanishing from exchanges.

• Low to mid-single digit MVRV + consistent outflows = stealth accumulation.

• The danger setup only comes if MVRV spikes above 12% and flows swing back to +500k ETH. Until then, it’s boring bullish.

Outlook: Bullish. ETH has the cleanest setup of the two. Supply keeps exiting the casino while MVRV hasn’t overheated. Market structure says ETH is coiling, not distributing. ♨️ 

NEWS
Well, Ok Then 🫢 

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart shared on X that REXShares & Osprey Fund filed for 21 crypto ETFs. 🤯 

Nope, not a typo. 21. Two. One. Twenty-One. And 12 of them are for staking ETFs!

What makes these filings interesting is they’re not filed using the new generic listing standard, but the old 1940 act bla bla bla method.

The size of the list must have triggered a happy feeling in another Bloomberg big-wig, because the Bloomberg ETF savant, Eric Balchunas only posted a meme in response to this:

Always fun to see TradFi dip their toes into the degen way of life. 🦶 

NFTs
Court Says Bored Apes Aren’t Securities. Weird That Needed a Judge. 🦍

A federal judge in California just did what should have been obvious from day one: ruled that Bored Ape NFTs are not securities. Years of lawsuits, regulatory posturing, and courtroom bills later, we officially have legal clarity that a monkey JPEG is… a monkey JPEG. 🤦 

What The Court Said

Judge Fernando Olguin tossed a class-action against Yuga Labs, the crew behind Bored Ape Yacht Club, and explained why the securities label doesn’t stick. Plaintiffs pointed to other cases, like Dapper’s NBA Top Shot moments or DraftKings NFTs, where courts let claims proceed. The judge wasn’t buying it.

• Marketplace matters. Apes were bought and sold on third-party venues like OpenSea and Coinbase, not on a walled-garden chain or platform Yuga controlled.

• No common enterprise. Without that issuer-controlled ecosystem, plaintiffs couldn’t show the pooled fortunes Howey requires.

• Royalties backfired. Yuga taking a cut on every resale means their revenues weren’t tied to whether holders won or lost. That’s the opposite of “we’re all in this together.”

The SEC previously tried to use royalties as evidence NFTs encouraged resales and profit-seeking. Here, the judge basically said royalties prove the opposite. Context matters. 🧠 

And yet, the market yawned. BAYC’s floor price slid another 2% on the day, sitting around $37k. That’s down about 90% from the April 2022 peak near $370k.

For Yuga Labs, it’s a win. For NFTs in general, it’s precedent.

But the comedy here is that it took years of litigation for a judge to say what most of us already knew: collectibles on open markets don’t magically turn into securities. If your investment thesis was “courts will bless my ape,” congratulations. If it was “number go up,” you’re still stuck with a 90% drawdown and disappointment. 😥 

Shout to Decrypt for the story idea.

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NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

💵 Sui + Ethena Roll Out suiUSDe, a Yield-Bearing Native Dollar

Sui, SUI Group, and Ethena are teaming up to launch suiUSDe, the first income-generating stablecoin native to a non-EVM chain. Backed by assets and futures, its yield will flow back into the ecosystem by buying more SUI off the open market. Sui is certainly turning itself into a flywheel for native demand. Sui.

🛡️ Zashi Adds Decentralized ZEC On-Ramp, Says Bye to Coinbase

Zashi wallet now lets users swap BTC, USDC, or SOL into ZEC directly via Near Intents, no centralized exchange required. Coinbase integration was axed for privacy reasons, so this fills the gap with a censorship-resistant rail. Shield it in-wallet, and you’re living Josh Swihart’s vision of unstoppable private money. Zcash.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

💸 Lisk EMpower Fund Commits $15M to Emerging Markets

Lisk launched a $15M fund to bridge the “Series A cliff” in Africa, LatAm, and Southeast Asia, where adoption is real but VC flows are scarce. The model pairs capital with advisory on governance, fundraising, and scaling, plus tokenized LP participation for investors. The first cohort spans supply chain, agritech, stablecoins, and gold-backed finance - exactly the kind of startups Silicon Valley ignores until it’s too late. Lisk.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

⚾ Avalanche Powers Blockchain Ticketing for Copa América de Béisbol

This is going to be one of the biggest stress tests yet for Web3 ticketing - 200k fans, zero excuses for fake tickets. Fans hitting Panama’s Estadio Mariano Rivera this November will enter with Avalanche-backed digital tickets instead of paper stubs. Tixbase built its own Avalanche L1 for the event, with rotating barcodes and fraud-proof onchain issuance. Avalanche.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🌍 $PLUME Payments Go Live on Binance Pay

Plume just plugged into Binance Pay, making $PLUME spendable across 45M+ users with gas-free, instant transfers. Merchants, travel sites, and lifestyle shops now accept it alongside 400 other cryptos. To sweeten it, they’re handing out 3,000 $PLUME to early users - free money if you send money. Plume.

🤝 1inch Becomes Coinbase’s DeFi Back-End

DeFi wins when “seamless” means nobody notices the aggregator doing the heavy lifting. Coinbase integrated 1inch’s Swap API, letting its users trade on-chain assets through a self-custodial wallet without touching a CEX order book. It’s 1inch’s biggest U.S. client yet and proof that even giants outsource DeFi plumbing. 1inch.

⏱️ BandChain Pushes for 1-Second Blocks With Validator Overhaul

If you’re staking BAND, validator performance just became the difference between speed and lag. Band v3 is live, and with it comes the “Active Validators Set” - 53 top validators chosen for uptime, stake, and credibility. The move tightens coordination, targets sub-1s block times and better reliability. Band.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🧾 NOWNodes Lets Devs Track eCash Without Losing Their Minds

Building on eCash isn’t just sending tokens, it’s making sure they actually land where they’re supposed to. NOWNodes now gives devs simple RPC access to monitor transactions, fetch details, and confirm payments in real time. It’s basically “Ctrl+F for the blockchain” - but with API keys. eCash.

🔥 Casper Kicks Off Liquid Staking Beta With Wise Lending

Casper’s September X Space revealed liquid staking is now live, letting users delegate CSPR and receive liquid sCSPR tokens in return. The update rides alongside the 2.0.4 upgrade and sets the stage for Casper 2.1’s multi-VM future. It’s the capital-efficiency upgrade stakers and DeFi builders were waiting for. Casper.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

📱 Walmart’s OnePay app to include Bitcoin, Ethereum trading: CNBC

📲 Samsung taps Coinbase to bring crypto to more than 75 million Galaxy users

🐻 Bear walked into southern Arizona grocery store and ran around for a few minutes

☢️ Amazon's giving away one great Fallout game and one bad one this October

🤖 Creepy robot with eerily realistic head leaves onlookers terrified: ‘Man-made horror’

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋