OVERVIEW

Crypto Fear Index Stuck on 'Mild Dread,' Considering Rebranding to 'Acceptance Index’ 😱

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

NEWS
MetaMask Turned Wallet Activity Into A 90-Day Cash Grab 🦊

MetaMask finally made loyalty programs cool again. MetaMask Rewards Season 1 begins, throwing $30 million in $LINEA.X ( ▼ 12.33% ) tokens at anyone who trades, swaps, bridges, or refers through the app. Basically, use the wallet, get paid. 💰

This first season runs for 90 days, and the more you do, the more you earn. Rewards stack up as you interact with MetaMask features, unlocking new levels and benefits over time.

Season 1 kicks off with that $30 million Linea pool for both long-time users and the fresh recruits who just downloaded the fox. MetaMask said this is “just the beginning,” teasing that future seasons will build on what you earn now - so those $LINEA tokens might snowball into bigger payouts later. 🦊

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NEWS
Today Was A Big Crypto ETF Day 🎇 

If it wasn’t for all the Fed, earnings, and China/US shtuff going on, the big focus would likely be the the three crypto ETFs today. 🥳 

Canary Capital’s spot $HBAR.X ( ▼ 5.06% ) and spot $LTC.X ( ▼ 7.97% ) become the third and fourth spot crypto ETFs behind BTC and ETH to hit Wall Street today:

And Bitwise’s $SOL.X ( ▼ 7.59% ) staking ETF went live today too:

Two years ago, nobody would have thought we’d see these come out so fast. Crazy how much better things are getting for crypto.

Well done Bitwise and Canary Capital, well done. 👏 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Sucktober’s Almost Done, Who’s Winning (Or Who’s Dead Weight) 🔢

The start to Q4 2025 has split crypto clean in half - Bitcoin and Ethereum are running the show while alts, like Chainlink and Cardano, are the kids still trying to figure out how the stupid digital transparent fridge window works because banging on it with fists isn’t working. 🧊 

Bitcoin (BTC): Calm, Rich, and Boring

$BTC.X ( ▼ 3.79% )’s sitting near $115K and pretending it doesn’t care who notices. It’s up 19% YTD and barely moving day-to-day - volatility’s down to a museum-quiet 1.65%.

MVRV’s stuck around the 31st percentile, which means everyone’s under-positioned even though it’s near all-time highs.

• Bull side: low leverage, no FOMO, clean structure.

• Bear side: maturity’s killing the fireworks. The whales are now family offices in Patagonia vests.

• Reality: BTC’s a coiled spring but won’t sprint. Think slow grind to $120K - $125K, then a long nap.

Outlook: Cautious bullish. Stable floor, limited near-term upside.

Ethereum (ETH): Still the Only Grown-Up in the Room

$ETH.X ( ▼ 6.82% )’s at $4.1K and, for once, everyone’s metrics agree - it’s the best setup out there. MVRV’s at 0.1079 (66th percentile), L/S is strong at 0.22, and the Z-score’s negative, meaning leverage has been flushed. It’s like being confident and hungover at the same time - impressive balance.

• Base case: $4.5K - $5.2K within 6 months.

• Bull case: $6.5K if retail shows up late to the party again.

• Bear case: $3.2K floor if macro turns ugly.

Outlook: Strong bullish. Solid risk/reward of the big boyz according to just these on-chain metrics.

Chainlink (LINK): The Schrödinger Chart

$LINK.X ( ▼ 9.48% )’s sitting at $18.40, which sounds fine until you remember it peaked at $26.59. It’s still -31% from January, down 17% YTD, and the data’s bipolar - MVRV’s negative but momentum’s rising hard.

• Bull thesis: biggest MVRV improvement (+0.0895), extreme de-leverage, classic rebound setup.

• Bear thesis: six months of “almost recovered” followed by “oops, not yet.”

• Reality: LINK’s in purgatory. Either breaks $20 and runs to $24 - $25 or collapses back to $16. No middle ground.

Outlook: Neutral-bearish until proven otherwise.

Cardano (ADA): The Ghost of Bull Markets Past

$ADA.X ( ▼ 7.84% )’s trading at $0.66 and apparently enjoys it there. After all, it’s been underwater since 2021. MVRV’s -0.11, long/short positioning is basically nonexistent, and its 45 straight days of negative MVRV readings might be a record for pain tolerance.

• Bear case: everything.

• Bull case: maybe a dead-cat bounce if sentiment shifts for 15 minutes.

• Reality: underperforming everything else, even stablecoins look adventurous next to it.

Outlook: Bearish. Avoid unless you like losing slowly.

Current Reality Check

ETH and BTC have become the S&P 500 of crypto. LINK and ADA are penny stocks that forgot to be delisted or picked up like some trashy forgotten micro-cap biotech stonk.

Judging from just the two on-chain metrics I used (180-Day MVRV Ratio & MVRV Long/Short Difference), quality’s back in charge. The “rising tide lifts all coins” seems like a lie.

Ethereum’s the clear winner of the first third of Q4 - best metrics, best structure, best narrative. Bitcoin’s the ballast. LINK’s a coin-flip. ADA’s a cautionary tale. 🥹 

STONKTWITS
Stonk News: MSFT and AAPL Hit $4T 📈

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🤖 MWX Is Building an AI Marketplace on Aerodrome - Because Why Not

MWX wants small businesses trading AI models like they’re memecoins. It’s launching the first AI token marketplace on Aerodrome, giving companies direct access to machine-learning tools without enterprise gatekeeping. Imagine Uniswap for algorithms - except half the listings are probably smarter than their buyers. Aerodrome.

💵 Circle’s ARC Testnet: Banking on the Blockchain, Literally

Circle launched its ARC Public Testnet, and it’s exactly what it sounds like - programmable stablecoin rails for the people who actually follow laws. Built-in KYC, onchain compliance, and liquidity that doesn’t break a sweat. It’s TradFi’s dream: control without chaos. Circle.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🔥 SKALE’s Gasless Chain Isn’t a Gimmick, It’s a Middle Finger to Fees

While other L2s argue about EIP numbers, SKALE just quietly built what everyone else pretends to have. Most “gasless” chains still make you pay - just hidden behind buzzwords. SKALE’s X402 design actually kills fees. No coins to juggle, no “sponsored transaction” fine print. It’s validator-funded, self-contained, and somehow doesn’t crumble under spam. SKALE Network.

🎃 Gala’s Eternal Paradox Got Possessed by Halloween

If you’re the kind of person who calls “grinding for drops” a lifestyle, welcome home. Eternal Paradox just went full pumpkin spice mode. The Halloween Frenzy event drops limited bosses, cursed loot, and way too many sleepless farming nights. Gala Games.

⚔️ WEMADE’s Legend of YMIR Is Basically “Skyrim With Tokens”

After years of teasing, Legend of YMIR is finally live - Unreal Engine 5 graphics, global servers, and all the crypto bells and whistles. WEMADE’s trying to merge MMO addiction with tokenomics, and honestly, it might work. PvP, streamer servers, and play-and-earn loops - it’s Korean gaming meets DeFi farming, and the dopamine’s priced in. Yes, I’ve played it. No, I dont’ have enough time to play it as much as I’d like. WeMix.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🤝 1inch Just Found TradFi’s Backdoor Into DeFi

1inch partnered with Innerworks to plug institutional money straight into DeFi - legally, no less. Innerworks handles the boring compliance junk; 1inch handles everything that actually makes money. It’s the perfect marriage: TradFi gets exposure, DeFi gets liquidity, and somewhere in between, both pretend they’re not sleeping with each other. 1inch.

🏦 Manifold’s Bringing TradFi Rules to Polygon - Without Killing the Fun

Manifold’s setting up institutional-grade liquidity pools on Polygon, complete with risk controls and reporting standards that don’t read like hieroglyphs. It’s DeFi with training wheels for fund managers. Polygon’s betting this mix of compliance and composability is what finally lures the suits in. Polygon.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

⚙️ Akash’s Mainnet 14 Is Basically the Moment They Went Pro

Akash called this update Core for a reason - it’s not a patch, it’s a rebuild. Networking? Rewritten. Latency? Shaved. GPU orchestration? Live. It’s the decentralized cloud version of going from a Linux basement setup to AWS-level uptime without the AWS-level bill. Akash Network.

🛡️ Aragon Finally Built a Panic Button for DAOs

Aragon rolled out Guardians, a safety net that stops hacks and “oops” votes before they drain treasuries. The Ethereum Foundation and Morpho are already using it - probably because they’re tired of waking up to “we got exploited again” tweets. It’s not DeFi’s cure-all, but it’s the first time a DAO can hit pause before the damage is done. Aragon.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, XLM, ADA, ZEC, FET.. 📋