OVERVIEW

Bitcoin Stared Into The Abyss, And The Abyss Pointed And Laughed 🤣

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Charts, Charts, & Moar Chartz 💹

There’s a lot of interesting take aways across the board in crypto, let’s look at some of the more interesting conditions some tickers find themselves in. And by interesting I mean ‘that looks kind of gross’ or ‘honestly, that doesn’t look to bad’. 😷 

Cardano

This guy definitely falls into the ‘looks kind of gross’ category.

Cardano’s daily chart is on track to make a new 1+year low, just a hair above $0.50.

To put a level of suck on this into perspective, this time last year $ADA.X ( ▼ 2.93% ) rallied from $0.33 to $1.33, a +307% gain.

At $0.509, it’s down -62% from the December 3, 2024 swing high of $1.33. 📉 

Litecoin

Litecoin’s daily chart sits firmly in the “doesn’t look that bad” bucket. Not questionable spoiled meat, but more like pre-cut watermelon cubes you left in the fruit drawer and it looks and smells ok to eat.

• Composite Index crossed below the slow MA, but the slope looks like it’s trying to carve out a flat bottom.

• DPO is showing similar behavior, flirting with a base and teasing a bounce off the zero line, which would be bullish if it actually follows through.

The key bullish conditions:

• Composite Index crosses back above its fast or slow MA on a daily close.

• DPO turns positive and slopes upward and remains above zero.

• Price closes above the daily Cloud around $104, confirming an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout.

If those pieces align, bulls finally get something that doesn’t feel like a practical joke. 🤡 

Optimism

Not only is $OP.X ( ▲ 0.19% ) the worst named cryptocurrency in the history of ever, but it’s price action is just depressing.

It’s weekly close is on track for its lowest ever. 💩

NEWS
FYI: Strategy Has No Forced-Sell BTC Price. The Real Risk Lives in 2027-2029 🧠

If you’ve been doomscrolling Stocktwits and X and ran face-first into some influencer yelling “$MSTR ( ▼ 4.22% ) gets liquidated at $30k BTC,” take a breath. That number doesn’t exist. 

No BTC-backed loans. No margin call trapdoor. No covenant that eats their coins.

The real tension sits somewhere else entirely. And it’s way more boring than crypto socials fears.

No, There’s Still No BTC-Price Trigger

• Strategy holds 641,692 BTC as of November 2025.

• Every BTC-collateralized debt instrument is gone.

  • Silvergate term loan: repaid March 2023, releasing 34,619 BTC

  • 6.125% secured 2028 notes: redeemed September 2024, releasing 69,080ish BTC

• All current debt is senior unsecured convertible notes.

  • No claims on BTC

  • No liquidation waterfall

  • No collateral-value thresholds

Nothing in their capital stack forces them to sell Bitcoin because of a price drop.

You could take BTC to 50k, 30k, 10k, or straight into Dante’s basement and nothing automatically triggers. 👿 

The Real Risk: Put Dates, Not Price Levels

Strategy doesn’t owe anyone Bitcoin. What they owe is cash, on certain dates, if noteholders exercise their repurchase rights.

That’s the only real “stress test” moment, and it spans 2027-2029.

Holder Put Windows (the actual pressure points)

• $1.01B due Sep 15, 2027

• $3.0B due Jun 1, 2028

• $0.8B due Sep 15, 2028

• $603.7M due Sep 15, 2028

• $2.0B puttable Mar 1, 2028 and again Jun 15, 2029

• $0.8B due Jun 15, 2029

• Total: $8.24B of puttable debt between 2027-2029

If absolutely everyone demanded cash and the capital markets were shut, they’d need to raise it somewhere. That “somewhere” could include selling BTC. But it’s a choice, not a covenant.

Stress-Testing the Worst Case (Only If BTC Must Be Sold)

If Strategy magically turned off all other capital-raising tools and had to sell Bitcoin for all 2027-2029 puts, here’s how much BTC they’d unload:

• $100k BTC: 82,400 BTC

• $80k BTC: 103,000 BTC

• $60k BTC: 137,333 BTC

• $40k BTC: 206,000 BTC

• $30k BTC: 274,667 BTC

• $20k BTC: 412,000 BTC

Still leaving hundreds of thousands of $BTC.X ( ▼ 3.37% ) untouched.

More realistic scenario: they never need to sell anywhere near this much because they’d stagger refis, ATMs, exchanges, and equity issuance long before touching treasury Bitcoin.

TL;DR Version

Strategy cannot be forced to sell Bitcoin at any price level. None. Zero. You can’t stress-test a trigger that doesn’t exist. The real world is more mundane:

• Big puttable convert stack

• Big Bitcoin stack

• Big capital-markets playbook in between

Price doesn’t trigger anything.

Time does. ⌛️ 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🌉 Dusk, NPEX and Chainlink Drag Old-World Securities On-Chain

A regulated Dutch exchange linking up with a privacy chain and an oracle network sounds like a fever dream, but here we are: Dusk and NPEX are hauling European securities onto blockchains where they actually get to behave like programmable assets. The setup fuses Dusk’s confidentiality tools with Chainlink’s cross-chain plumbing and market-data feeds, giving tokenized equities the ability to jump between ecosystems without breaking compliance. Dusk Network.

🤖 Sui’s Verifiable AI Layer Makes Bots Prove They Aren’t Misbehaving

Sui built an AI control stack where agents can’t touch data or execute tasks without leaving a paper trail your compliance team will swoon over. Walrus, Seal, Nautilus and the Sui chain tag-team to enforce policies, log everything and verify every inference or action. It’s the closest thing Web3 has to forcing AI to “show its work” instead of shrugging like a C- student. Sui.

STOCKTWITS
Stonkmarket News 📰 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

💸 Avalanche’s Sierra Brings Money-Market Logic to DeFi Without the Circus

Avalanche released the SIERRA token, a liquid-yield asset backed by Treasuries, commercial paper and DeFi positions, all allocated through OpenTrade’s institutional framework. No lockups, no ritualistic staking chores - just transparent reserves and dynamic rebalancing. Avalanche.

🏛️ Calastone Uses Polygon to Drag 4,500 Institutions Into the On-Chain Era

Calastone processes £250B a month and just shifted fund distribution onto Polygon, giving thousands of institutions a way to launch tokenized fund shares without Frankensteining a new backend. Settlement speeds drop, fees drop and cross-border friction pretty much evaporates. Polygon.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🔋 Gala’s VEXI Ledger Boxes Turn Loot Boxes Into Thanksgiving Dinner

If you’ve ever wanted Black Friday to invade a blockchain game, congratulations, your moment has come. Gala is selling a limited batch of VEXI Ledger mystery boxes with a 42% holiday discount and rarity odds that feel like a gacha game wearing a tie. You get one unit, random rarity, and maybe a synergy bonus if you pair it with the right building. GalaGames.

🎨 1inch Declares NFTs Dead, Then Explains Why They’re Actually Molting

NFT market caps nuked 45% in a month, corporate NFT brands bailed and even blue-chips slipped, but the tech itself quietly pivoted into membership keys, RWA wrappers and phygital flex items. The speculators left, the infrastructure kids stayed, and suddenly NFTs look more like access credentials than cartoon JPEG casinos. 1inch.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🏦 Uniswap’s Continuous Clearing Auctions Bring Price Discovery Out of the Shadows

Consider this the civilized version of “who gets rugged first.”Uniswap v4 is done with backroom token launches, replacing them with fully on-chain auctions where bids clear block-by-block and everyone pays the same fair value. Early bidders get better fills, snipers lose their favorite hobby and the proceeds automatically seed a fresh v4 pool. Uniswap.

🪙 mXRP Lets XRP Finally Do Something Useful in DeFi

If XRP holders suddenly start acting smug, this is probably why. mXRP gives 480,000 XRP holders on BNB Chain a liquid-staking token that actually earns yield instead of collecting dust. It’s backed by market-neutral strategies, governed by transparent contracts and instantly composable across lending, farming and looping setups. Axelar.

🧙 Celonames Turn Celo Wallets Into Something Humans Can Read

Watching people pay $400 a year for a three-letter name will be hilarious until it’s you doing it. Celo users finally get to ditch copy-pasting cryptic addresses and instead mint “celo.eth” subnames that plug straight into ENS. Add a bit of zk-verification from Self and you’ve basically got a wallets-meet-username system that doesn’t require you to chant seed phrases in the mirror. Ethereum Naming Service.

⚡ Reactive + Plasma Turns Stablecoin Settlement Into an Autopilot System

Reactive Network plugged into Tether-backed Plasma so stablecoins can settle and reroute automatically instead of waiting for a bored treasury analyst to notice a dashboard turning red. Plasma is purpose-built for digital-dollar throughput, while Reactive contracts fire off rebalances, settlements and compliance triggers the moment conditions shift. Reactive Network.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🎪 Polkadot Hijacks TechCrunch Disrupt With Beanbags and Bravado

Turns out you can teach Web2 about parachains if you bribe them with soccer-jersey raffles. Polkadot rolled into Disrupt as the only blockchain presence and somehow pulled almost 10,000 people into its LED-blasted booth like moths to a neon-pink flame. Most attendees had never touched blockchain, which made the beanbags, stickers and real explanations feel like a cultural exchange program. Polkadot.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🌪️ Feds reject Tornado Cash dev’s bid to overturn conviction

🧠 Google DeepMind’s new AI agent learns, adapts and plays games like a human

🕸️ Palladium Network bets big on tokenized real estate

🕊️ Canary submits MOG coin ETF to SEC, expanding alt roster

😶 OCC urged to reject Sony bank’s effort to join the crypto banking sector

🦄 Former SEC staffer Amanda Fischer attacked over Uniswap comments

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋