OVERVIEW

Winning Feels Good But Also A Little Weird 😰

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

$BTC ( ▲ 3.4% ) tagged $78k today and $ETH ( ▲ 3.79% ) hit it’s highest level since February 1. And this week has seen some alts hit major gains: $AAVE ( ▲ 0.99% ) up +31% this week, $M ( ▲ 2.65% ) +45%, $TON ( ▲ 0.13% ) +12%, $HYPE ( ▲ 1.49% ) +13%, and $PEPE ( ▲ 1.41% ) +16%.

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Charts 📈

Zcash

$ZEC ( ▼ 4.42% ) is one of many altcoins that looks primed for a big continuation move. It’s also one of the few altcoins that had a big run in late 2025 and maintained a good chunk of those gains.

A couple people asked if I could do some analysis on this - specifically Elliot Wave. So here you go.

Without getting into the nitty gritty of it all, I’ll summarize this with identifying where Wave 3 could be depending on linear and logarithmic measurement. Some of the projections are underwhelming and some are in the realm of Stupidsville, but hey, maths are maths.

Linear Projection

On a linear basis, the measured move puts a basic Wave 3 target near 836, with the classic 1.618 extension landing around 1,235. Push it harder and the next zones come in near 1,481 and 1,880.

Logarithmic Projection

Logarithmically, things get much more unhinged. That same structure projects a 1.0 extension near 1,366, a 1.618 extension around 4,606, and a full 2.618 blowoff near 32,923. Told ya it was in Stupidsville.

Bitcoin

Yesterday confirmed an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout setup, and, as of this afternoon, $BTC ( ▲ 3.4% ) is still pushing higher, topping $78. But closing above $80k might be difficult.

One of the interesting behaviors of the Chikou Span is that it responds to the same support and resistance levels as price. So, if, today and over the weekend it looks like Bitcoin got stuck in the middle of a breakout, that’s one reason why.

Additionally, the Composite Index is getting close to some recent resistance levels that could halt or slow any near-term moves.

RWA
So That’s A Lot Of Tokenized Gold For One Day 🤯

Tokenized gold has had a busy Friday. Hong Kong’s OSL said it’ll dual-list Matrixdock’s gold token XAUm and silver token XAGm, making itself the first regulated digital asset platform in the city to offer both at the same time - plus the first to list a silver token at all. 🪙

Then there’s Theo, which took the more trader-brained route. Its gold-backed stablecoin thUSD is now open in 200-plus countries after a $100 million genesis program sold out in 24 hours.

And then, from the “sure, why not” desk, Dogecoin Cash announced it’s developing a “Dogecoin Gold” framework tied to physical gold reserves at the nanogram level. No launch yet. No token yet. No finalized structure yet. Just a white paper coming later and a concept built on math, custody, and all that other stuff. 🐶

RWA
Oh, Wait, There’s More Gold 🤯

Just when it looked like the week had squeezed all the juice it could from shiny rocks onchain, two more stories showed up to say, “Actually, no, we’re still doing this.” 🫡 

KorDA teamed up with $ZRO ( ▲ 1.95% ) to launch KGLD, a physically backed gold token built to move across blockchains without the usual wrapped-asset clown show. One gold asset, multiple chains, no liquidity fragmentation, no extra layers of “trust me, bro” infrastructure jammed in the middle.

Then there’s the $XTZ ( ▲ 3.34% )  metals push, which is less about gold specifically and more about dragging the broader metals market into this century. That includes gold and uranium, but also niche industrial metals like hafnium, rhenium, indium, neodymium, and praseodymium - the kind of stuff most people only hear about when supply chains break and governments start sweating.

Never heard of some of those? Me either, but according to Tezos’s presser, they’re essential for things like semiconductors, EVs, defense systems, and advanced manufacturing. 🧠 

PLEASE
Tell Me What You Want, What You Really, Really, Want 🧂

Every year (for the past four years), I like to change things up a little. Then I ask for feedback from the saltiest group of salty readers out there. 🤦 

The results have been great! The News In Three Sentences is popular, on-chain analysis and interpretation is a hit, and some other smaller changes have been the result of you telling me what you like.

Or don’t like. Sometimes in very mean ways. How mean? Like walking-two-blocks-to-the-liquor-store-but-then-feeling-better-mean.

And it’s that time of year to try something new. So let me know what you think!

• Email me here: [email protected] 

• Send a hate filled PM on Stocktwits here: Jonathan Morgan on Stocktwits

• Or send you adoration on X: Hi.

NEWS
Kraken Just Skipped A Decade Of Regulatory Misery 🦑

Kraken just made one of the more important crypto infrastructure grabs of the year, then hid it inside a press release written like melatonin. Kraken’s parent company (Payward) agreed to acquire Bitnomial for up to $550 million in cash and stock, in a deal that values Payward’s equity at $20 billion. 😨 

Strip out the corporate throat-clearing and the real story is simple - Kraken buying Bitnomial is like buying an airport that already has the runway, control tower, and FAA approval.

Oh, but doesn’t Kraken already offer stocks, futures, crypto, etc? They do, but the Bitnomial acquisition gives them the foundation for spot margin, perps, and options. For Kraken it’s more of a ‘we own the machine now’ instead of ‘we’re plugged into one’. 👍️

NEWS
Speaking Of Bitnomial 😯

And speaking of Bitnomial, it just handed $INJ ( ▼ 0.6% ) something most altcoins only get to fantasize about - a regulated U.S. futures market. The Chicago-based exchange launched monthly INJ futures, marking Injective’s first entry into America’s regulated derivatives arena. 💉

The contracts settle in INJ, expire monthly, and can be margined in either crypto or U.S. dollars through Bitnomial’s clearinghouse. Institutional clients can trade them now, while retail is supposed to get access soon through Bitnomial’s Botanical platform.

The exchange also says perpetuals and options are coming, because apparently once you give degenerates a futures contract, restraint leaves the building. 😶 

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• One year after the halving, BTC had logged its weakest post-halving performance on record.

• Bitcoin was up just 32.74% 12 months after the 2024 halving, versus a +368.55% average for prior cycles.

• OKX said it was coming back to the U.S.

• Someone offered 1 BTC to crack Bitcoin with quantum computing .

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Bitcoin was two days from the halving.

• SingularityNET and Minswap teamed up.

• A Nebraska scammer allegedly stole cloud resources to mine crypto - about $3.5M in fraud tied to a mining scheme and a very stupid nickname.

• Big UK banks were testing tokenized deposits - Barclays, Citi, Visa, and Ma.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

April 17

• 1521 - The trial of Martin Luther begins.

• 1524 - Giovanni de Verrazzano discovers New York Harbor.

• 1790 - Benjamin Franklin dies.

• 1837 - J.P. Morgan is born.

• 1861 - Virginia votes to secede from the United States, becomes the eighth Confederate State.

• 1895 - Treaty of Shimonoseki, end of the first Sino-Japanese War.

• 1961 - Bay of Pigs invasion.

• 1964 - Jerrie Mock is the first woman to fly solo around the world.

• 1969 - Sirhan Sirhan convicted of assassinating JFK.

• 1975 - Cambodian Civil War ends.

• 1982 - Queen Elizabeth II proclaims the Patriation of the Canadian constitution. Canada earns its independence by asking nicely.

• 1998 - Space Shuttle Columbia launched, final Spacelab mission.

• 2011 - Game of Thrones premieres on HBO.

• 2014 - NASA’s Kepler telescope finds the first Earth-sized planet in the Goldilocks zone of another star.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋