OVERVIEW

Traders Are Interrogating Every Green Candle For Lies And Information 🟢

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $DOGE ( ▲ 2.6% ) , $HBAR ( ▼ 2.1% ) , $XRP ( ▼ 0.3% ) , $BTC ( ▼ 0.5% ) , and $ALGO ( ▼ 1.8% )  

TECHCNICAL ANALYSIS
Cloud Control ☁️

Time for some charts. 📈

$BTC ( ▼ 0.5% )

I’ll just start of with saying that if you are someone who trades both sides of the market, then the short side is starting to look pretty damn tempting for you. Why? Well, there’s a boat load of warnings that price could see another dip.

First, the current daily candlestick is not far from the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A). That by itself isn’t a big deal - but when you look at the Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillator, then things look dire for bulls. The red circles highlight hugely strong bearish crossing events.

Ultimately, price needs to confirm something ugly is going to happen, that will occur when/if price closes below $62,611. That would also put the Chikou Span below the candlesticks and in open space, creating what’s known as an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout.

But I’ll reiterate: For all of you happy ‘oh yay BTC falling again’ people out there, remember: (wait, can I put two colons before a sentence ends?!) it’s still in the Cloud. And the Cloud loves to be a jerk.

So, despite a lot of things warning of another dive south, it could just be the Cloud being an ass. 🐎

$LINK ( ▲ 5.1% )

To use a cliche, Chainlink’s chart is in sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s. It’s doing very well today (close to +5%) while everything else is in the red. For those seeking a fundamental reason, it might have something to do with Standard Chartered’s $200 target - but I’m going to attribute it to the technical (technical analysis) side. 👛

Chainlink closing about the Cloud doesn’t confirm an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout, I mean it’s necessary for that to happen, but the price level needs to be at a level where the Chikou Span will be in open space - a condition where it won’t equal a candlestick body over the next five to ten periods at it’s current price.

And for some Ichimoku traders, they also like to see the Chikou Span above the Cloud. So, for all of those conditions to be true, Chainlink would need to be above $8.93. That might be difficult because Senkou Span B is the top of the Cloud. And Senkou Span B is the strongest level of support/resistance in the Ichimoku system. Also, the long Senkou Span B is flat, the stronger it is perceived to be.

So, basically, until the Chikou Span closes above Senkou Span B, things might remain choppy despite LINK breaking out above the Cloud. ✂️

NEWS
Crypto Revenue Is Easy. Crypto Profit Is Not 🤔

Exodus grew Q2 revenue 2% to $26.2 million. Bakkt’s revenue collapsed 70% to $170.1 million. Between them, the companies reported $18.5 million in adjusted EBITDA losses. 😱

Crypto remains a wonderful place to process enormous numbers while making very little money.

Exodus added just $400,000 in year-over-year revenue while general and administrative expenses jumped $25.9 million. G&A surged 138% to $44.7 million. Partnership expenses climbed 76%. A $37.7 million profit from last year became an $18.6 million loss.

The operating numbers were not that great either. Monthly active users fell 6.7% from Q1. Funded users dropped 7.1%. Swap volume slid 8.3% to $1.1 billion.

Bakkt looked a little healthier for roughly 6 seconds. It reported $80.8 million in net income, up from a $14.7 million loss last year. The useful footnote was a $98.5 million non-cash gain tied to the value of its Transchem warrants.

Underneath the accounting confetti, Bakkt posted an $11.8 million adjusted EBITDA loss - worse than $9.8 million last year. Its $170.1 million of revenue came with $169.3 million in crypto costs and execution fees.

Both companies are doing things other than just ‘get crypto here’: payments, cards, stablecoin infrastructure and embedded finance. Whether they can turn any of it into operating profit remains to be seen. 🥸

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS
Galaxy’s $50 Million Bet On Putting U.S. Home Prices On-chain 🏘️

Speaking of expanding beyond being just another entity that offers crypto, $GLXY ( ▲ 3.13% ) is committing $50 million to USHP - a coming Ethereum-based digital asset tied to U.S. home prices. 💵 

Galaxy puts the residential housing market at roughly $55 trillion, comparable to the entire S&P 500. Yet investors still cannot buy broad home-price exposure like they buy an equity index, Treasury ETF or gold. The existing options are mostly expensive impersonators. Homebuilders, REITs, etc.

USHP is designed to remove that mess. It would give eligible non-U.S. institutional investors liquid, indexed exposure to U.S. home prices without purchasing or managing physical property.

Important distinction - USHP is not a tokenized piece of a house. It references a home-price index. Think housing beta without the tenants, furnace or lawn mower.

Galaxy also sees USHP as somewhere for stablecoin capital to go besides the usual crypto yield carousel of basis trades, leverage and token incentives. Roughly $300 billion in stablecoins exist on-chain, much of it earning little or nothing. Connecting some of that money to a $55 trillion real-world market is at least a better idea than inventing another governance token for a governance token. 🧠 

NEWS
The ETF Is Learning To Behave Like A Token 🧑‍🎓

Tokenized stocks already exist. Tokenized funds do too. Precidian Investments’ new U.S. patent is designed to move a fund between ETF form and token form without changing what it owns. 🤔

Precidian announced U.S. Patent No. 12,646,040 today, which allows securities to exist as conventional fund shares or asset-backed digital tokens representing the same underlying portfolio.

The patent describes canceling ETF shares at a securities depository, calculating the portfolio’s real-time intrinsic value and creating an equal value of digital tokens on-chain. Precidian says those tokens can also convert back into ETF shares.

Like me, I’m sure you’re asking yourself, ‘wait, doesn’t this already exist and happen? Like, don’t entities like Securitize already do this? This is where Precidian differs from Securitize’s tokenized-stock model, although the distance is smaller than Precidian’s announcement might suggest.

Securitize puts public-company shares on-chain. They are not synthetic tokens tracking a stock from several rooms away. Securitize also handles tokenized funds. BlackRock’s BUIDL, for example, issues blockchain-based fund shares backed by cash, Treasury bills and repurchase agreements.

What Precidian patented is a specific bridge between a traditional ETF share and a token representing the same managed portfolio. Securitize makes a security blockchain-native. Precidian gives fund exposure a switch. 🔃

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• BTC dominance kept slipping - it had fallen from a mid-July peak near 66% to the 60% area, with the August 9 close marking the lowest daily close since February 1, 2025.

• Chainlink landed the big TradFi headline - ICE, the parent of the NYSE, plugged its FX and precious metals data into Chainlink Data Streams, giving banks, asset managers, and thousands of apps real-world market data on-chain.

• The Chainlink argument was middleware, not revolution cosplay - banks were not being asked to abandon their stack or worship at a new token altar. Chainlink was connecting existing systems to blockchains, which is exactly the boring stuff that wins RFPs.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 11

• 3114 B.C. - The Maya Long Count calendar’s creation cycle began.

• 355 - Roman general Claudius Silvanus declared himself emperor. He was murdered 28 days later.

• 1492 - Rodrigo Borgia became Pope Alexander VI, bringing bribery, nepotism and family drama directly into the Vatican. It was an ok show.

• 1806 - Meriwether Lewis was shot in the thigh, likely by a nearsighted expedition member who mistook him for an elk.

• 1919 - Germany adopted the Weimar Constitution.

• 1929 - Babe Ruth became the first baseball player to hit 500 career home runs.

• 1942 - Hedy Lamarr and George Antheil received a patent for frequency-hopping technology that helped shape modern wireless communications.

• 1960 - Chad gained independence from France.

• 1973 - DJ Kool Herc hosted a Bronx party widely regarded as the birth of hip-hop.

• 2003 - NATO assumed command of forces in Afghanistan, its first major operation outside Europe.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋