OVERVIEW

Tom Lee Says It's A Bottom. Tom Lee Always Says It's A Bottom 🤦

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $AMP ( ▼ 2.78% ) , $NEAR ( ▼ 7.22% ) , $FET ( ▼ 3.29% ) , $XCN ( ▼ 1.54% ) , and $PENGU ( ▼ 6.56% )

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Same Panic, Different Exits: BTC & ETH Exchange Supply, Six Years On 😱

Spring 2020, COVID crash erasing everything, and hodlers did the rational (or irrational) thing - shoved coins onto exchanges to sell.

$BTC ( ▼ 2.35% ) supply on exchanges topped out at 3.22 million BTC on March 12, 2020, the day of the crash. $ETH ( ▼ 2.85% ) peaked at 22.9 million eight weeks later, on May 14. Peak fear, peak float sitting on order books.

Six years on, both piles are a lot smaller. The amount of BTC on exchanges is down to 1.32 million, off 59% from that 2020 high - about 1.9 million coins that walked off exchanges and never came back. ETH is at 7.2 million, a 69% drop, roughly 15.7 million gone.

One Of These Is Not Like The Other

But something interesting has occured over the past twelve months. They’ve stopped agreeing.

The amount of ETH on exchanges is down about 45% in a year, from 13.0 million to 7.2 million, and it printed a multi-year low of 6.94 million back in April. The ETH treasury crowd has been buying float to sit on. ETFs park the rest in custody. All of it pulls ether off the order books and doesn't hand it back.

Bitcoin went the other way. After years of one-directional draining, BTC exchange supply ticked up about 7% over the same stretch, from 1.23 million to 1.32 million. Not a flood. But it's the first sustained move back onto exchanges in a while.

Whatever's dragging ETH off exchanges isn't dragging Bitcoin the same way.

NEWS
Ethereum Isn't Going eUTXO. It's Just Not Saying Cardano's Name 🦜

A reader emailed and asked me if $ETH ( ▼ 2.85% ) is switching to an eUTXO model. Short answer: no. Some of the chatter about this has to with this post from Nero_eth on the ethresear.ch forum.

Basically, the claim is that ETH is not that great for one-shot payments. The problem it solves is dull: the first time an address gets ETH, it earns a permanent account leaf in state, and that data sits there forever. State bloat.

The propsed fix is to treat some payments the way $BTC ( ▼ 2.35% ) treats all of them - a one-shot object, created once, spent once, gone. The chain keeps one bit instead of a full account entry. Hence the viral number: a claimed 99.8% cut in permanent state for payments.

So no, ETH is not going eUTXO.

Bitcoin has UTXO - one-shot outputs. $ADA ( ▼ 5.82% ) built eUTXO, the extended version with scripting bolted on, and shipped it for years. But Cardano didn’t get a shout out for it. And Charles is kind of mad.

His words, from X: mentioning Cardano is "literally a crime in the Ethereum inner circles." He also hit Gokhshtein's stream flexing 119 failed transactions out of 119.4 million since 2020, and pitching Gary Gensler as Pennywise in a storm drain.

Fun drama.

NEWS
Your Tokenized NVDA Can Now Post Margin. If You're Not American. Or Panamanian 🤦

$ONDO ( ▼ 4.55% ) switched on Ondo Perps yesterday, and that means you can post tokenized stock and ETF holdings as collateral for perpetual futures. First platform to let you do it. No parking a separate pile of cash on a second venue to hold the position.

It's perps on U.S. equities, ETFs, and commodities - SPCX, NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, QQQ, gold, oil - up to 20x leverage, 24/7. Fun fact, they’re the largest or at least one of the largest tokenizers of stonks by TVL.

But it’s for non-U.S. investors only. And non-Panamanians. I’m sorry, I just think that part is funny because usually the fine print just says, something like Not available in the U.S. and other prohibited jurisdictions. But Ondo’s slips Panama in there with Not available in the U.S., Panama and other prohibited jurisdictions.

Anyway, according to their presser, Ondo Global Markets has grown roughly 5% a week since September and cleared $1 billion in TVL.

NEWS
The Risk Team Outgrew The Risk 👋

LlamaRisk started in 2021 as a grassroots project inside the $CRV ( ▼ 3.22% ) community - unpaid people worrying about whether the pools would hold. It grew up. Somewhere along the way it turned into a real firm: Aave Horizon's RWA risk, a seat on Ethena's risk committee, Chainlink liquidation dashboards, its own product in LlamaGuard.

As of last month it was still Curve's market curator for Llamalend v2, running a $725k mandate. This week it's leaving.

So Curve is doing what you do when the person who's held the keys for years hands them back. It posted a help-wanted ad. Open forum thread, two-week window, no fixed budget, propose your own scope and price. The job is the whole safety layer - whether crvUSD holds its peg, whether the lending markets eat bad debt, whether anyone's watching when they start to.

The post doesn't say why LlamaRisk walked. What's plain is the shape of it: a risk team born to watch one protocol grew into a firm that watches everyone else, and the original stopped being worth the seat.

Curve raised it, funded it, and now gets to interview its replacement. The kid moved out.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• The main piece was an RWA tokenization cheat sheet - 15 tokens split across 5 buckets: hard assets, private credit, real estate, regulated securities, and niche/intangible RWAs.

• The big names included ONDO, SKY, PAXG, Maple, Centrifuge, Goldfinch, Polymesh, LCX, Swarm, KlimaDAO, and others.

• The Stocktwits Retail Radar detour looked at Lucid - retail sentiment had flipped sharply positive as traders watched the $2.00 area for support and $2.60 as the next obvious trouble spot.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• The main question was whether altcoin pain was finally easing.

• Santiment’s MVRV was the core tool - LINK, ADA, and UNI had deeply negative 30-day MVRV readings, which suggested entry risk was lower, even if it didn’t guarantee a bottom.

• Grayscale’s research framed crypto as a 2024 election issue - 47% of voters expected crypto to be part of their portfolio, ownership was nearly even between Republicans and Democrats.

• The Crypto 101 section explained stablecoins - fiat-backed, crypto-backed, and algorithmic versions, with the usual reminder that “stable” in crypto sometimes means “stable until it becomes a documentary.”

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 8

• 1497 - Vasco da Gama left Lisbon for India

• 1663 - Rhode Island received its royal charter,

• 1776 - John Nixon publicly read the Declaration of Independence

• 1777 - Vermont’s constitution declared people born free and independent

• 1853 - Commodore Perry sailed into Tokyo Bay

• 1889 - The first issue of The Wall Street Journal was published

• 1892 - St. John’s, Newfoundland burned

• 1898 - “Soapy” Smith was killed in Skagway

• 1918 - Ernest Hemingway was wounded in Italy

• 1932 - The Dow hit its Great Depression low

• 1947 - Roswell officials said they recovered a “flying saucer,” then changed it to a weather balloon

• 1950 - Truman named MacArthur commander of U.N. forces in Korea

• 1959 - The first Americans were killed in the Vietnam War’s American phase,

• 1994 - Kim Il Sung died, ending North Korea’s founding dictator’s rule

• 2011 - Atlantis launched on the final space shuttle mission

• 2018 - The Thai cave rescue began pulling boys out alive, after 12 players and their coach had been trapped underground for more than 2 weeks

• 2022 - Shinzo Abe was assassinated during a campaign speech

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋