OVERVIEW

Therapist Asked How I'm Coping, I Showed Her My Screen Time Report And She Kicked Me Out 🚪

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

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NEWS
Congress Discovers You Shouldn't Arrest People For Writing Code 🤦

Another example of why everyone should follow Eleanor Terret to keep up with all the policy shenanigans in crypto:

Three House lawmakers introduced the Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026.

In a nutshell, it clarifies that Section 1960, the federal criminal statute targeting unlicensed money transmitters, applies only to entities that actually control customer funds. Not to developers who write code. 

That's it. That's the bill.

The fact that this clarification needs to be written into law at all is a direct consequence of what happened to Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet, where prosecutors stretched Section 1960 to cover noncustodial software developers who never touched a single user dollar. 

Samourai Wallet co-founder Keonne Rodriguez got five years in federal prison for building open-source privacy software..

Worth noting: the federal fix doesn't automatically neutralize state-level money transmitter exposure. Developers could still face a patchwork of state obligations depending on how "custody or control" gets defined in edge cases - and that definition is very much unsettled.

This bill is moving alongside CLARITY Act deliberations, with the White House pushing a March 1 deadline for a Senate market structure vote. Washington is suddenly in a hurry.

Better late than never - though try telling that to Keonne Rodriguez. 🥹 

NEWS
Stablecoin Gold Rush Has a New Shovel Salesman - And It's MoonPay ⚒️

The stablecoin market is getting another layer of infrastructure, and this one has PayPal's fingerprints all over it. 🤘 

MoonPay and M0 announced PYUSDx this week, a platform that lets developers launch application-specific stablecoins backed by $PYUSD ( ▲ 0.07% )  in days rather than months. Think of it as stablecoin-as-a-service.

M0 provides the universal token platform and interoperability infrastructure across multiple chains, while MoonPay handles issuance and distribution. PYUSD itself remains issued by Paxos Trust Company, giving the whole structure a regulated foundation.

PYUSDx tokens are distinct instruments, however, and carry their own licensing responsibilities by jurisdiction.The first builder on the platform is USD.ai, designing an application-specific stablecoin for AI infrastructure use cases.

The big question isn't whether the platform works, it's whether PYUSD's relatively modest market cap can anchor meaningful liquidity for the application tokens built on top of it.

Also, I mean, PayPal has a boat load of drama right now, too. 🎭️

NEWS
More zachxbt insider stuffs 👇️

Those wonderful people at Lookonchain share a little update. 🟩 

In case you can’t see/read the X link above, Lookonchain identified 12 additional wallets that, well, made a lot of bank before the Axiom news dropped.

Let’s see what kind of developments happen over the weekend. 📰 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Six And A Half Percent. That's What's Left of Cardano's Profitable Supply. 😶

Yesterday, we looked at Ethereum’s on-chain activity (same as we did BTC on Wednesday) and condition based on four metrics: Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA), Percent Of Total Supply In Profit, MVRV Ratio, and the NVT Ratio. Today, we’re looking at Ethereum and Cardano the same way.

If you want a refresher on what each measures, check out Wednesday's Cryptotwits newsletter, here.

Mean Dollar Invested Age

Before we get into the numbers, there's a methodological (is that even a word?) footnote that has to come first. Cardano's MDIA reading is a number so far removed from anything we see in Bitcoin or Ethereum that it demands an explanation rather than a verdict.

The culprit is Cardano's staking architecture. Because essentially all ADA is perpetually staked and staking rewards are distributed on an epoch-by-epoch basis, coins are in a constant state of on-chain movement in a way that has nothing to do with holder intent.

The MDIA is designed to detect dormancy versus activity. For Cardano, almost nothing is ever truly dormant in the on-chain sense, which makes the metric noisy to the point of being unreliable as a standalone signal. I'll show it for completeness and context, but I’ll be leaning harder on the other three for this analysis.

Percent of Total Supply in Profit

Six and a half percent. That's the number. 

Out of every 100 ADA in circulation, roughly six and a half of them would book a gain if sold today. The other 93.5% are underwater. The dataset low was 6.06%, hit on February 11th - two+ weeks ago.

For context on how extreme this is: the cycle peak was December 3rd, 2024, when 94.3% of supply was in profit. Fourteen months later, 93.5% of the supply has gone from green to red. That's not a correction. That's a full-scale liquidation of the gains from an entire cycle, completed in just over a year, with almost nothing left standing.

MVRV Ratio (365d)

What -0.482 on the MVRV tells me is that the average person who bought ADA in the last year is sitting on a loss of roughly 48 cents on every dollar invested. That's not a paper loss that feels abstract - that's a loss that is real enough to affect behavior, real enough to trigger tax-loss harvesting decisions, and real enough to discourage most holders from adding more.

It is also, for the same reasons, a loss that has already been absorbed by the people who are still in the market. The weak hands that were going to sell into this have largely already sold.

NVT Ratio (Circulation)

This is the one chart in the Cardano stack that doesn't look like a a horror show. The Cardano network is being priced cheaply relative to its actual on-chain circulation activity. Whatever economic activity is happening on Cardano right now - staking, DeFi, transfers - is not being overshadowed by speculative valuation.

Price has fallen far enough that NVT has actually become constructive for the first time in a meaningful stretch. It’s the closest thing to a supportive fundamental signal in this whole stack.

Putting It All Together

Cardano's on-chain situation is more severe than either Bitcoin or Ethereum by almost every measure that isn't distorted by staking mechanics. 

• Only 6.5% of supply is in profit.

• MVRV is two ticks from its dataset worst.

What the data is telling you is that this is a market where almost everyone is already losing. The argument for a recovery is not that things are good - it's that things have gotten bad enough, for long enough, that the available supply of motivated sellers has gotten very thin.

Whether that matters depends on whether there are motivated buyers to meet them. That part is not in the on-chain data. That part is the bet. 🪙

NEWS
The Scam Center Strike Force Is Three Months Old and Already Hit Half a Billion 👮

The U.S. Attorney's Office in D.C. dropped a number this week that deserves your full attention: $580 million in cryptocurrency frozen or seized from Chinese transnational criminal organizations in just three months of operation. 👍️ 

They’re targeting pig butchering operations, a genuinely stomach-turning name for a genuinely stomach-turning crime. Scammers spend weeks or months building fake relationships with victims online - sometimes romantic, sometimes just friendly - before steering them into fraudulent crypto investment platforms.

The victims think they're investing or helping. They're actually handing their life savings to Chinese organized crime running compounds in Burma, Cambodia, and Laos.

DOJ estimates these scams drain nearly $10 billion from Americans annually. In some Southeast Asian countries, scam revenue represents close to half of GDP. And the workers inside those compounds are often trafficking victims themselves - held against their will, guarded by armed groups, forced to defraud strangers on the other side of the world.

The Strike Force is a collaborative effort spanning the FBI, Secret Service, IRS Criminal Investigation, and U.S. Attorney offices across multiple districts. Field offices in San Francisco, Memphis, Honolulu, Phoenix, New York, and elsewhere are all contributing to seizure operations.

$580 million in 90 days is a serious number. 🔢

STOCKTWITS
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋