OVERVIEW

The Rally Has A Pulse, A Burner Phone, And No Fixed Address 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Everybody Got Even By Selling 🟰

On February 5, 2026, five of the six tickers we’re looking at today had composite MVRV scores hitting their lowest reading of the past year. Oh, and that happened on the same day. 🤯

BTC at 0.70. ETH at 0.60. ADA at 0.58. UNI at 0.53. INJ at exactly 0.50, which is the kind of round number that makes you check your data twice and then feel stupid for hoping it was a bug.

Price did not bottom on February 5. Price kept going.

Bitcoin's low was June 30, 145 days later, at $58,562. Ethereum bottomed June 25. Cardano the same day. Uniswap June 10. Injective was quickest off the mark and it still took 56 days to find the floor.

Cost Basis Drifted

MVRV is market value over realized value. Price over cost basis. Under 1.00, the average hodler is sitting in the red, above 1.00, the average hodler is in green.

Now, the composite MVRV has recovered, but it recovered because holders sold at a loss and handed their coins to somebody with a cheaper entry. Realized value fell faster than market value did.

Five of six at or near break-even, while price sits 48% (BTC) to 79% (ADA) below the highs in this sample. The ratio says everyone's whole. The chart says nothing of the sort.

Backtest Stats

Some of ya’ll wanted some backtests on this kind of data. There’s an old mantra/maxim/saying in Wall Street: there’s no such thing as an unprofitable back test. A note to any would-be-trader, and this is just my opinion based on my own 15+ years trading: the only backtest worth anything is your account balance.

But hey, they’re still fun to look at. Fun like reading fantasy or sci-fi novels because they’re not real. Anyway, I ran forward returns by MVRV band with a full year of history. At 90 days:

• Below 0.70: -4.0%, 38% win rate

• 0.85 to 1.00: -24.4%, 4% win rate

• Above 1.00: -30.1%, 3% win rate

Then I split the sample in half and it fell apart. In the first six months, every band lost about 33% at 90 days. Every single one. So that’s fun. 😶

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🛣️ 0x Opens Its First Non-EVM Route

0x Swap API is now in open beta on Solana, covering SPL, native SOL, wrapped SOL, and Token2022 through one endpoint with introductory zero swap fees. 0x reports 97.8% quote simulation success and a 2.2% real-world revert rate, with Kamino and Titan already using it during closed beta. Teams retain control over signing, submission, priority fees, compute budgets, slippage, and monetization. 0x.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🔥 Chiliz Sends 24.3 Million CHZ to the Dead Wallet

Chiliz burned 24.29 million CHZ on July 29, worth an estimated $326,808, bringing cumulative burns under the program to 49.06 million CHZ. The mechanism uses 10% of proceeds from Fan Token transactions and marketplace activity to buy CHZ on the open market and permanently remove it. Chiliz.

🎯 Mirandus Lets Landowners Put A Price On Goblin Problems

Mirandus settlement owners will soon be able to escrow GALA rewards for killing specific enemies and lowering local Threat Levels, with up to three active bounties per deed and a 10% listing fee. Hunters take one contract at a time and must manually claim their earnings. Gala Games.

🗳️ Enjin Wants Ten More Validators And Thinner Paychecks

An Enjin referendum proposes expanding the active validator set from 25 to 35 in four stages between August 2026 and May 2027. More operators should improve geographic and provider diversity, but the fixed reward pool means estimated monthly commission per validator falls from roughly 15,700 ENJ to 11,200 ENJ under current conditions. Enjin.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

⏳ Jito Shows Your Place In Line, Not Your Boarding Time

JitoSOL’s StakeNet rescores validators every 10 epochs, admits only those clearing every eligibility filter, and assigns each selected validator an equal target while rank controls funding order. The queue moves through reserve SOL and a 7.5%-per-cycle rebalancing cap; BAM connectivity, commissions, vote credits, and validator age all matter. Onchain data can show eligibility, rank, target, SOL ahead, and remaining budget, but any exact arrival date is farm-fresh fiction. Jito.

🏛️ Four Pillars Was Studying Injective Now It’s Running It

After two years and 12 published analyses on Injective, Four Pillars has moved from studying the network to validating it. FP Validated now runs an Injective mainnet validator with a 5% commission, joining an infrastructure footprint spanning 24 chains, 99.9%-plus effective uptime, and $52.1 million under stake as of June 23. It will also vote in governance and support Korean and APAC ecosystem work. Injective Protocol.

🥞 The CAKE Printer Keeps Losing to the Furnace

July produced 674,316 CAKE and burned 1,944,441, leaving net issuance at -1,270,125 and shrinking supply by 0.38%. That makes 35 consecutive months of total-supply reduction and a cumulative decline of 57.22 million CAKE from the peak. PancakeSwap.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🔑 sBTC Changes Keyholders Without Moving the Vault

Stacks is rotating five early sBTC signers out and three unnamed institutional signers in across July and August. The protocol still requires 70% signer consensus for deposits and withdrawals, every handoff is verified on-chain, and peg security remains intact throughout the transition. Stacks.

🛠️ Mina’s Mesa Upgrade Comes With an Eight-Hour Intermission

Mesa reaches Mina Devnet on August 19 with 90-second slots, four times more on-chain state fields, higher event/action and account-update limits, and automated future hard forks. The process expects roughly eight hours of downtime, including five hours of empty blocks, while state is finalized and nodes restart. One restraint remains: zkApp transactions launch capped at 12 per block after stress tests found RAM spikes. Mina Protocol.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Trump’s executive order pushed the Labor Department to revisit ERISA rules so crypto, private equity, and commercial real estate could show up inside retirement plans.

• PancakeSwap launched stock perps.

• Salomon Brothers got roasted for wallet “cleanup” tactics - the firm sent OP_RETURN notices to old wallets, floated quantum-risk concerns, and positioned itself like a noble rescuer but they’re really greedy future-claim land grab bad people.

Two years ago - August 7, 2024

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Judge Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125,035,150 civil penalty, which looked tiny next to the SEC’s original $2B ask.

• XRP ripped because the cloud lifted - the market cared less about the fine and more about finally removing 4 years of “is XRP a security?” sludge from the windshield.

• Ripple still had rules to follow - the company was permanently restrained from violating Section 5, had to pay within 30 days, and could face post-judgment interest if it dragged its feet.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 7

• 461 - Roman emperor Majorian was tortured and beheaded after being overthrown by his own general.

• 936 - Otto I was crowned king of Germany, later becoming Holy Roman Emperor.

• 1420 - Construction began on Brunelleschi’s enormous dome for Florence Cathedral - built without traditional wooden supports.

• 1782 - George Washington created the Badge of Military Merit, predecessor of the Purple Heart.

• 1819 - Simón Bolívar’s forces won the Battle of Boyacá, securing Colombian independence.

• 1942 - U.S. Marines landed on Guadalcanal, beginning America’s first major offensive against Japan.

• 1959 - Explorer 6 launched and later transmitted the first photograph of Earth taken by a U.S. satellite.

• 1974 - Philippe Petit walked a tightrope between the World Trade Center towers, 1,350 feet above Manhattan.

• 1990 - George H.W. Bush launched Operation Desert Shield after Iraq invaded Kuwait.

• 1998 - Al-Qaeda bombed U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 and wounding more than 4,500.

• 2008 - Fighting erupted between Georgia and Russia, beginning a five-day war over South Ossetia.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎 

Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋