OVERVIEW
The Good News Is We're Stuck ↔
Here’s What’s Happening 👇
NEWS
Degen Mode Activated 🚨
So this notification popped up on my phone this morning. 👇
I laughed when this popped up. Really hard. I mean, I didn’t spray my Scooter’s Strawberry Horizen Redbull Infusion all over my keyboard, but it did dribble a little all over my shirt. And now it’s stained. 🥹
Note: This is not an endorsement of Kraken or Hunter Biden’s Laptop. I do not own Hunter Biden’s Laptop. I do not own any $LAPTOP ( 0.0% ). My current exposure to Hunter Biden’s Laptop is reading/writing the words “Hunter Biden’s Laptop”.
Is Hunter Biden’s Laptop just a memecoin? Or had someone tokenized the actual Hunter Biden’s Laptop? Was Hunter Biden’s Laptop even Hunter Biden’s laptop anymore? Who had custody of Hunter Biden’s Laptop? Are we talking about Hunter Biden’s Laptop as a real-world asset backed by Hunter Biden’s Laptop?
An RWA of Hunter Biden’s Laptop. Fractionalized Hunter Biden’s Laptop.??? 😱
Edit Note: I have since confirmed that $LAPTOP ( 0.0% ) is not a tokenized version of Hunter Biden’s Laptop. Hunter Biden’s Laptop is a memecoin named Hunter Biden’s Laptop. 💻
STOCKTWITS
Stocktwits MCP Screener Went 5 For 5 5⃣
So did everything else. 😶
This is an update to the Stocktwits MCP screener and results I used three-ish weeks ago (August 18).
I ran thirty-eight crypto tickers through Stocktwits' MCP looking for three conditions at once: price going sideways, the sentiment score grinding higher a point or two a day, and message volume refusing to move.
Also: This is not trading or investment advice. I'm describing how I use the MCP. 👇
Click to enlarge.
Three weeks on, all five are green. From the August 18 close through yesterday:
$SOL ( ▼ 1.82% ) +34.3% (peaked +41.6% on Aug 27)
$TAO ( ▼ 2.67% ) +36.7% (peaked +39.4% on Sep 6)
$AVAX ( ▼ 2.74% ) +25.6% (peaked +27.6% on Sep 7)
$BNB ( ▼ 3.75% ) +24.3% (peaked +26.6% on Sep 6)
$BTC ( ▼ 0.72% ) +22.1% (peaked +25.6% on Sep 3)
Bitcoin ran 22% in the same stretch. When the benchmark does that, five tickers going up is a beta result, not a stock-picking one. Only SOL and TAO meaningfully beat the tape.
Based on the screen, I dismissed SOL as "noise in a trend costume" and it posted the biggest peak gain of the group. I wanted two more prints out of BTC before committing, and they showed up on August 19 and 20.
AVAX is still worth watching. No volume breakout at all - sentiment 58 to 72, message volume 52 to 54, price up 25.6% and sitting 1.6% off its high.
Click to enlarge.
Up a quarter with nobody in the room is the condition the screener was built to find. So what does the Stocktwits MCP say about today? Let’s see. 👇
STOCKTWITS
Same MCP, Same Data, Opposite Question 🔄
This week I asked the opposite across 100 names - the trending board plus the liquid ones that don't trend: where has everybody already shown up. If a quiet room is the ‘heads up’. A full room is the count down to the end of the show starting. ⌛
Click to enlarge.
Room Full, Price Already Left
DASH and ARB - sentiment 88-89, volume 90-93, both up 100%+ on the month, both 12-13% below highs set two sessions ago. Everyone is still bullish and posting. Price is already walking out. Out of 100 names, these two are alone in this corner.
Lean: Bearish.
Room Full, Price Still High
ZEC and XCN - six sessions with sentiment above 80 and volume to match. ZEC is +138% in thirty days. August's median top came five sessions after the crowd arrived. These two are past that.
WLD, COMP, XYO, VET, DOT, ALGO - two to five sessions in. VET and DOT hit new highs today. Earlier in the count, same clock.
TAO - 69 sentiment, 49 volume when I called it the tightest quiet setup on August 18. Now 80 and 82, up 29%. The crowd arrived.
Lean: They’re still moving. Adding is iffy.
Crowd Left, Price Hasn't Noticed
BTC, ETH, SOL, CRO, DOGE, SUI - Two ways to read this: the tourists left and the holders stayed, or price is the last one to get the memo.
HYPE - the sharpest version, and the one I'd tilt bearish. Sentiment 93 to 57, volume fading, and it set its 30-day high two sessions ago.
Lean: Neutral. Keep watching.
Rooms Filling Up Right Now
$SEI, $ATOM, $TIA, $NEAR, $FET, $COTI - sentiment just crossed the high 70s, volume climbing, not full yet. None of these trend, so the board wouldn't show them. Day zero of the timer.
Lean: Bullish.
We’ll revisit these in a couple/few weeks! 📆
STOCKTWITS
My Stocktwits MCP Prompts 👇
Finding Opportunities
Use the Stocktwits MCP. Pull the crypto trending board (up to 50 symbols) and add these tickers if they are not already on it: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, LINK, DOT, SUI, HYPE, TAO, NEAR, ATOM, AAVE, ARB, OP, TIA, SEI. For each symbol, get the watcher count and drop anything under 1,000 watchers.
For every remaining symbol, pull sentiment history and message volume history at the 1M zoom, which returns 30 daily buckets scored 0-100. Then fit an ordinary least squares line to the last 14 sessions of each series and report the slope per day and the R-squared.
Flag a symbol as a QUIET ROOM candidate if all of the following hold:
- Sentiment slope over 14 sessions is positive with R-squared of at least 0.5, and no faster than 2.6 points per day. Faster than that is a hype burst, not a grind. Also report the 10-session slope in case the 14 catches a U-turn.
- Message volume slope over 14 sessions is between -0.4 and +0.4 per day, and the 14-session high-minus-low range is 10 points or less.
For the flagged symbols only, fetch 31 daily closes ending today from DefiLlama: https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:<coingecko-id>?start=<epoch 31 days ago>&span=31&period=1d&searchWidth=6h. Then check the price leg:
- 30-day change between -6% and +10%
- Current price within 8% of the 30-day high
- Daily volatility (stdev of daily returns) under 3%
Output one table sorted by sentiment R-squared, highest first: symbol, watchers, sentiment start/now/slope/R2, volume slope/range, 30d price change, % off 30d high, daily vol, and a verdict column with one of: CLEARED ALL THREE, SOCIAL ONLY (price failed), or PRICE ONLY. Below the table, list every symbol that has had a message volume breakout this month (a print above its prior 14-session high), because those already had their crowd arrive. Do not editorialize. Numbers and verdicts.Finding Exits
Use the Stocktwits MCP. Pull the crypto trending board (up to 50 symbols) and add these tickers if they are not already on it: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, LINK, DOT, SUI, HYPE, TAO, NEAR, ATOM, AAVE, ARB, OP, TIA, SEI, FET, ZEC, DASH, ALGO, VET, WLD, COMP, CRO, PEPE, SHIB. Drop anything under 1,000 watchers.
For every remaining symbol, pull sentiment history and message volume history at the 1M zoom (30 daily buckets, 0-100). Record for each: sentiment now, sentiment 30-day peak and the date it printed, points dropped from that peak, message volume now, message volume peak, points dropped from that peak, and how many consecutive sessions sentiment has been at or above 80.
Fetch 31 daily closes for every symbol from DefiLlama (same endpoint: https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:<coingecko-id>?start=<epoch 31 days ago>&span=31&period=1d&searchWidth=6h) and compute 30-day change, the 30-day high and its date, and % below that high.
Sort every symbol into exactly one group, checked in this order:
1. ROOM FULL, PRICE LEFT - sentiment now >= 80, volume now >= 75, price more than 8% below the 30-day high. Lean: bearish.
2. ROOM FULL, PRICE AT HIGH - sentiment now >= 80, volume now >= 75, price within 8% of the high. Lean: still going, timer running. Report the session count above 80.
3. CROWD LEFT, PRICE HASN'T - sentiment peaked at 80 or higher, has dropped 25 or more points, volume has dropped 15 or more from its peak, price within 6% of the high. Lean: neutral, keep watching.
4. SPENT - sentiment peaked at 80 or higher, dropped 25 or more, price more than 10% below the high. Lean: over.
5. ROOM FILLING - sentiment crossed 75 within the last 5 sessions and volume has risen 10 or more points over the same stretch. Lean: bullish, day zero.
6. NONE OF THE ABOVE.
Output one table per group, sorted by sentiment now descending: symbol, watchers, sentiment now / peak / drop, volume now / peak / drop, sessions above 80, 30d price change, % off high, date of high. Then a one-line count of how many symbols landed in each group. Do not add commentary. Numbers and groups.DEFI
Crypto Discovered Accounts Receivable 📜
Truckers can wait 30 to 180 days to get paid. Diesel, tires, and payroll remain annoyingly uninterested in that arrangement. 🚛
TCS is tackling that problem with a token that just listed on Kraken. Transportation companies exchange the rights to collect their freight invoices for $TCS, then sell those tokens for dollars on the exchange. TCS says users receive funding the same day or next business day, with most saving 50% to 90% on financing costs.
Oh, and this industry is enormous, like $2.58 trillion enormous. With trucks moving 72% of freight and a bout 91% of carriers operate just 1 to 10 trucks, waiting months for payment hits a small operator right in the grocery budget.
That makes this kind of cool. Faster access to money already earned. Lower costs for collecting it. A use case you can explain to someone who owns a Peterbilt without making them sit through a tokenomics presentation. 🙏
NEWS
Wall Street Wants The Dollars Behind Your Digital Dollars 💰
Northern Trust Asset Management oversees $1.6 trillion. Its newest product is a money market fund built for stablecoin reserves. And it owns zero stablecoins. 🤔
The fund, NSCXX, holds short-term U.S. Treasuries and Treasury repurchase agreements. Stablecoin issuers get a dedicated place to manage the assets backing their digital dollars, with capital preservation and liquidity as the priorities.
This isn’t a new thing. There’s already serious company here. $BLK ( ▼ 2.13% ) has managed
$CRCL ( ▼ 3.32% )’s reserve fund since November 2022. Northern Trust is entering an established business serving stablecoin issuers.
Also, Northern Trust already manages $395 billion across its liquidity strategies. This new fund gives that existing business another type of customer. Those are company-wide liquidity assets, though. The announcement doesn’t disclose how much this particular fund has attracted. 🤷
NEWS
Lithium Company Mines Entire Thesaurus In Single Press Release 🔋
This weeks winner for the longest press release headline ever goes to Rain City and ZERO13 for their insanely long headline: “Rain City Resources Announces Strategic Agreement to Develop Blockchain-Enabled Traceability, ESG Verification and Digital Infrastructure for Lithium Production Along with Corporate Update”
In a nutshell, Rain City Resources and ZERO13 want to track lithium’s production history, including water use, energy consumption, purity, and lab results. Potentially useful stuff. The real idea is to give buyers a verifiable history of what they’re buying and how it was produced.
But putting B.S. on a blockchain doesn’t improve it. A ledger can preserve a water-use claim. It cannot visit the mine and check the meter. The measurements, lab work, and verification still have to be trustworthy.
This is also an early development framework. Most of the agreement expresses mutual intentions; a working pilot isn’t guaranteed. The press release’s headline, however, is already producing at industrial scale. 😯
OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛
September 9
1087 - William the Conqueror died from injuries suffered when his horse stumbled during a military campaign.
1543 - Nine-month-old Mary Stuart was crowned Queen of Scots.
1776 - The Continental Congress officially replaced “United Colonies” with “United States of America.”
1791 - Commissioners named America’s planned federal capital Washington and its surrounding territory Columbia.
1850 - California became the 31st state as part of the Compromise of 1850.
1926 - RCA created the National Broadcasting Company. NBC began broadcasting two months later.
1943 - Allied troops landed at Salerno.
1945 - Japanese forces in China formally surrendered at Nanjing, ending eight years of full-scale war there.
1948 - Kim Il Sung proclaimed the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the Soviet-occupied north.
1956 - Elvis Presley made his first appearance on The Ed Sullivan Show, drawing roughly 60 million viewers despite Sullivan’s absence.
1971 - Prisoners seized control of Attica Correctional Facility and took 42 staff members hostage.
1976 - Mao Zedong died after ruling Communist China for 27 years.
2001 - Al-Qaeda operatives posing as journalists assassinated Afghan resistance commander Ahmad Shah Massoud with a bomb hidden in a television camera.
2015 - Elizabeth II surpassed Queen Victoria to become Britain’s longest-reigning monarch.
Get In Touch 📬
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋