Today we’re going to look at some stats, behaviors and patterns between $BTC ( ▲ 0.03% ) and its 200-day EMA (exponential moving average). Before anyone says, ‘hey, shouldn’t we use the 360/365 day?’ We could. And despite Bitcoin being a 24/7 365 day a year asset, the 200-day is an ‘industry’ standard, so there it is. 🪙

There’s a maxim/belief in crypto that Bitcoin always comes back to the 200-day moving average - it does, eventually. I mean, that’s something said about anything and everything pretty much. Which is about as useful as telling a rancher the cattle always come back to the feed bunk. He knows. What he wants to know is how far they wandered, and for how long, before coming home.

So I measured it. Every daily bar of Bitcoin back to 2011, every trip away from the 200-day EMA, above and below - how far it got, how long it stayed gone. I began each count on the first daily close above/below the 200-day EMA and ended on the first close back above/below.

Fun fact: almost half of all crosses of the 200-day EMA returned across. So I left those out. Anything under 10 days above/below before returning is out.

The median run above gets 31% over the average and lasts about seven weeks. The mean is 83%. However, since 2020 the median is 27% and the mean is 40%. The typical run hasn't changed much.

The downside doesn't have that problem, since nothing falls more than 100%. Mean and median agree, all-time and since 2020. Stints below the line lasting a month or more have a median depth of 34.5% across the whole history and 34.5% in the six since 2020.

Also: Bitcoin has spent 63% of its days above the 200-day. Let’s keep going. 👇

Every dot is a day Bitcoin made a new all-time high, plotted by how far above the 200-day it was when it printed. The final high of 2013 came 422% over the average. December 2017 was 215%. November 2021 was 44%. The October 2025 high near $126K printed 18% over.

In 2017, 18% over the 200-day was just another Tuesday.

The last time Bitcoin touched double percentage points above its 200-day was March 14, 2021, which means the November 2021 top never got there. Last touch of 50% over was November 22, 2024. Last touch of 25% was July 14, 2025, three months before the top.

This rubber band used to be able to take an eye out. Now it's the one that's been in the junk drawer since 2014 and it’s getting crusty.

And one for the log-scale crowd (hi): 72% above sounds bigger than 54% below, but in log terms the 54% is the larger move. So the 2024 peak stretch was smaller than the 2022 washout that came before it, and that had never happened in a prior cycle.

Next. 👇

Take every run of 100-plus days above the 200-day. Find the most extended close. Then find the close that finally broke back under the average, and see what price did in between. 👀

Before 2020 there were four of them, and the return to the 200-day cost between a third and two-thirds of the price in two to three months. After the December 2017 peak it took 57 days and a 47% haircut. If you traded through one of those, hi, I feel you, I’m here for you, but just in spirit.

Since 2020 there have been four more. Drawdowns ran from 5% to 22%, and the trip took three to five months. The 2025 run took 148 days. Price gave up 5% over that stretch while the average climbed 21% to meet it.

Bitcoin used to fall back to its mean. Lately it stands at the curb and waits for the mean to come pick it up.

The shrinking tops and faster recoveries are the same story. When price only (this is one of the only assets where 25% is considered meh) gets 25% above the 200-day, the it can catch up on its own in a few months. When price is 224% above it, like December 2017, the average isn't closing that gap without help from a crash.

The sample is tiny. Four runs before 2020, four since. And it only works on the way up. I checked whether bear markets changed the same way, and they haven't. 2022 was slow, 211 days from the washout back to the line.

Which brings up this year. Bitcoin spent 289 of 290 days under its 200-day. The washout bottomed 38% below the line, when the four bears before it all went to about 50% or deeper. Then on August 20 it closed back above. 👇

Bitcoin's tops have printed closer and closer to the 200-day EMA for a decade, and since 2020 the trip back to the 200-day costs 5% to 22% where it used to cost half. This section is about where it/we are at right now.

Bitcoin closed back above its 200-day EMA on August 20. Before that it spent 289 of 290 days under it. The one exception was a close above on May 10 that didn't survive the next session.

There have been 26 prior runs above the 200-day that made it past 10 days. Fifteen lasted longer than this one has so far. Twenty-three eventually stretched further than the 14% this one reached on September 3.

So, by age it's middle of the pack. By weight it's the runt. Prior runs still alive at day 29 were sitting 11% to 23% over the average, typically around 20%. This one is at 4% and has been sliding back toward the line for two weeks.

Right now the card reads alive and underweight.

The last three bears ran 406, 364 and 378 days from the cycle's highest close to its lowest. This one is at 267, if the June 30 close near $58,500 holds as the low. It's also the shallowest of the four, 53% off the high against 77% to 85% before. By Bitcoin standards that's a bear market with a salad bar.

Believe it or not, we’re nineteen days away from the October 6, 2025 high.

Bitcoin has closed 40% or more below its 200-day EMA on 131 days. One year later it was higher every single time. Worst case was up 13%, the median was up 193%. But let’s break down those 131 days because there’s some good stuff to look at.

Those 131 days are five episodes: 2011, 2015, 2018, the March 2020 crash, the summer of 2022. Bitcoin is higher a year later from 72% of all days anyway, so going five for five happens on dumb luck about one time in five.

The deepest close this cycle was 35% under on February 5. The worst intraday wick, a day later, got to 38%. Either this was a milder bear than the four before it, or it isn't finished. 🤷

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
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