I’m on a boat. 🚢

Five real correlations. Five explanations nobody should have written down. 5⃣

You have seen the chart. Global M2, shifted ten or twelve weeks to the right, whichever fits this month, laid over Bitcoin. Two lines that went up, going up together. It gets posted every week, it does numbers every week, and every week somebody replies "liquidity is all that matters" like they were the first to notice.

That chart is a correlation between two price levels that both trend. So is every chart below. The difference is I picked mine to be dumb on purpose.

Nothing here is investment advice. Most of it barely qualifies as arithmetic. ➕

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Between 2014 and 2025, Bitcoin's average price and USPS First-Class Mail volume spent twelve years heading in opposite directions. Mail fell from 63.8 billion pieces to 42.2 billion. Bitcoin went from five hundred bucks to six figures. 📤

I call this the Envelope Capitulation Cycle.

It’s not even close to deceptively sophisticated. Your grandmother stops mailing birthday cards. Physical correspondence contracts. A man with three monitors concludes that monetary civilization has entered a new phase. You are still out twenty dollars.

"Grandma, did you forget my birthday?"
"I sent you a text."

In the model, every unmailed envelope is capital liberated from stationery. The stamp is stranded infrastructure. The little red flag on the mailbox becomes a sentiment indicator.

A consultant has described the transition as intergenerational disintermediation. Two things that trended for twelve years, one up and one down, and nothing at all connecting how they moved year to year. 📥

Ethereum's average price and the number of firearms TSA pulled out of carry-on bags rose nearly in lockstep from 2016 through 2024. TSA found 6,678 guns in 2024. The 2020 hole in the black line is what happens when nobody flies. 😶

Brent is our investor. Brent is invented, and if you know a Brent, he is also invented. Actually, I went to high school with a Brent. We’re friends on Facebook. Anyway.

Brent's diligence is real and it is total, and it stops at the exact edge of his own luggage. If you ask Brent if he checked the side pocket, he’ll probably say he verified the protocol. God damnit, the bag, Brent.

An economist would call this an information asymmetry. Brent knows everything about his assets except which ones are in his backpack. And now Brent missed boarding and is explaining to a federal employee that his risk management is normally excellent. 🔫

Look at the chart. For ten months of 2024, XRP and UFO reports did the same thing, which was nothing. Both lines lie flat on the floor from January through October like they're waiting on a ruling. 🤯

Then November. XRP goes from about fifty cents to about two dollars in a month. In December the New Jersey drone panic hits and the National UFO Reporting Center logs 1,002 reports, up from 224 in January.

COINCIDENCE?!

That's the whole correlation. Two lines that were asleep for ten months and then both got up, a month apart, for unrelated reasons. One was an election. The other was a guy in a driveway filming a regional jet.

Cross-border payments were never ambitious enough, and the addressable market now includes civilizations without billing addresses. Every blurry photo is a sales lead. A saucer over a cornfield is, well, something to tell someone about. 🤷

Written by yours truly. Super data heavy. Right up your alley. 👀

It’s once a week, on Mondays. Let me know what you think! 👇

Across 2025, HYPE's price and Counter-Strike 2's peak player count on Steam moved in opposite directions. Peak players fell from 1.8 million in March to 1.4 million in July while HYPE tripled off its March low. I have interpreted this as somebody's husband changing tabs. 🎮

A kitchen. Evening. The gaming chair has not moved. The energy drink cans have multiplied.

"I thought you stopped gaming."
"I'm managing capital."
"Why are you yelling?"
"Price discovery."
"You said 'one more' forty minutes ago."
"That was a different position."

He says the transition has improved his discipline. He records his mistakes in a spreadsheet now instead of explaining them to strangers through a headset. Sometimes he does both, which he calls diversification. A loss used to be the teammate's fault. Now it's market structure. 📈

Chainlink's average price and the Dallas Cowboys' regular-season penalties climbed together from 2018 through 2025. Eight seasons. Dallas has averaged nearly seven flags a game across the window, and Chainlink has averaged a holder who thinks the referee is talking to him. 🤦

The portfolio manager, hypothetical, now watches football with a laptop, a beer, and a financial interest in procedural mistakes. His wife thinks he has a football problem. His accountant has pointed out that the football is a recent addition.

The seasons don't line up with calendar years. The regular season went from 16 games to 17 in 2021, which pads the flag count. Check it year to year and there is almost nothing there. 🤷

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
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