OVERVIEW

Perp My Ride 🏎️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ALGO ( ▼ 3.79% ) , $UNI ( ▼ 0.88% ) , $KTA ( ▼ 13.73% ) , $ETH ( ▼ 1.77% ) , and $ADA ( ▲ 2.08% )  

NEWS
Post Fed Price Action 🤯

FYI: I’m writing and annotating these charts as of 1500 EST. That’s 1-hour post the rate decision so things could look very, very different depending on when you read this. ⌚️ 

XRP

$XRP ( ▲ 0.1% ) monthly chart is just a fantastic example of how useful the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system is. June’s candle close right on top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) and almost the entirety of July has been a fight between bulls and bears, with bulls (so far) keeping it above the top of the Cloud. ☁️ 

I’d also like to point out that the Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillator between February and July of this year are the lowest in XRP’s history and they’re just now starting to turn up.

Special note: If you look ahead towards December 2026 to February 2027, you’ll see the Cloud does eventually turn and move higher, with both Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B point up. Watch what happens in those months, there’s a high probability of XRP finding some upside momentum.🧠

BTC

Something similar going on here with Bitcoin as to what we looked at with XRP: a good Ichimoku example. 👍️

Unfortunately the only example here is a warning: it’s inside the Cloud. So it’s a good idea to just look at it and then put it out of your mind because anything that is inside the Cloud is just something you don’t even want to think about. It’s dead to you. It will only hurt you.

The only time you want to care or even look at a chart likes $BTC ( ▼ 0.61% ) ’s daily chart is when the candlesticks look like they’re breaking out of the Cloud. Then, and only then do you even give it a deeper look.

The Cloud represents volatility, indecision, whipsaws, false breakouts, and just misery on a scale you don’t want to measure. The Cloud is where everything bad in the world exists (socks with sandals, inflation, Hitler, Putin, Canadian wild fires, cilantro, wasps, hornets, those random lawn potholes that make me roll my ankle every god damned time I mow, etc).

HYPE

Ooof. Hyperliquid. That’s a rough looking daily chart. 😶

From an Ichimoku perspective, $HYPE ( ▼ 3.08% ) has a confirmed Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout on the daily chart. That confirmation happened on Monday and there has, so far, been no clear attempt by the bulls to give it a little push higher.

And if you want some fundamental pressure, you’ve got some in the form of the $CME ( ▲ 2.09% ) ’s new single stock futures that released on Monday, too. 📆

DEFI
Perp My Upside: The Closing Bell Gets Fired 🔥 

Some cool data from coingecko came out today regarding how traditional assets are trading on exchanges. 😯

• Crypto exchanges generated $393.14 billion in traditional-asset volume during June.

• Perpetual futures supplied $387.39 billion. Spot supplied $5.75 billion.

• That makes perps 98.5% of the entire market.

Not exactly Wall Street getting tokenized, more like the tickers got copied, kept open 24/7, and handed a leverage slider.

The Perp Machine

The growth has been fairly stupid:

• Monthly perp volume climbed from $3.32 billion to $387.39 billion.

• Open interest exploded from $60 million to $4.67 billion.

• June volume was roughly 84 times total open interest.

Gold Out Stocks In

Precious metals powered the first wave, reaching $236.76 billion in March. By June, metals volume had fallen 48.2% to $122.59 billion.

Then stock perps knocked, kicked in the door, threw metals out the door, built an addition, then two more stories, and now they’re working on a six car garage.

• May volume: $43.40 billion

• June volume: $189.84 billion

• Monthly increase: 337.4%

Traders Want The Night Shift

Among the report’s survey respondents:

• 64.7% valued always-on market access.

• 73.3% traded before traditional markets opened.

• 58% called early positioning the greatest CEX advantage.

Across the report’s 18-month window, crypto exchanges turned traditional assets into a $393.14 billion monthly market. June 2026 supplied the high-water mark. 🤯

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS
Kraken Will Pay You 7% If You Can Prove You Don't Need It 🦑

Kraken rolled out Fixed Rate Rewards this week, offering up to 7% APY on cash and stablecoins locked for 3, 6, 12, or 18 months. Rewards compound weekly. Auto-renew if you'd rather not think about it. 🤑

Also: US accredited investors only.

That means a million in net worth outside your house, or $200k a year in income. The people who qualify for a guaranteed 7% on idle cash are, by definition, the people least likely to be sweating what their idle cash is doing. Everyone parking $4,000 in USDC hoping to outrun their savings account gets to read the press release and move on.

The product itself is fine. Fixed-term, fixed-rate, no drift, on USD, EUR, USDT, USDC and USDG. It's a CD with a blockchain in the plumbing, which is roughly what a lot of DeFi has been converging toward anyway.

To be clear, the requirement isn't Kraken's fault. Reg D wrote it decades ago. And, if you’re hopeful about the loosening of things from a regulatory perspective, this (accredited investor) could be something going away (or at least becoming more attainable for normal people) in the near future. 🔮

NEWS
IMF: Brazil, You’ve Been Naughty 🫢

Brazil’s crypto market has boomed since 2017. USD stablecoins now handle trading, remittances and cross-border transfers. And it does those things, now, with shocking ease. And the IMF doesn’t much like that. 😤

Its latest assessment found Brazil’s cross-border crypto flows have grown faster than traditional capital flows. Stablecoin purchases are also 2 to 3 times more sensitive to global shocks than portfolio investment or foreign direct investment.

They’re basically saying that when markets wobble or the real (Brazil’s currency) comes under pressure, Brazilians can move into digital dollars fast. No foreign currency account. No banking hours. The IMF sees that as a stability risk.

But, dear readers, there is a little gem in this 79-page wall of text: Buried in the assessment is a chart they (the IMF) probably didn’t want to be interpreted a certain way.

When Brazil raised its IOF financial transaction tax, stablecoin purchases jumped roughly $400 million. When it cut the tax, they fell.

Most people in the crypto space will call BS on the idea this is only about safety. Stablecoins made dollar access embarrassingly easy. Institutions built around controlling currency movement do not enjoy being bypassed. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• The main piece was an MVRV read on altcoins - checking 7-day and 30-day MVRV to see whether the pullback had cleaned out enough short-term pain for upside to matter again.

• BTC looked neutral - holders were basically flat, with no giant profit pile begging to be dumped, but still needing a catalyst instead of emotional support.

• James Wynn kept doing James Wynn things - more deposits, more high-leverage flips, more liquidations, and a balance down to about $30,890 after a PEPE cascade.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Bitcoin 2024 was the main event - Trump used the Nashville stage to promise a national Bitcoin stockpile, a crypto-friendly advisory council, no CBDC, support for self-custody, and firing Gary Gensler on day one.

• The conference was pure Bitcoin maximalist theater - Michael Saylor floated $13M BTC by 2045, VanEck’s CEO said over 30% of his net worth was in Bitcoin, and John Deaton said 82% of his wealth was in BTC.

• Edward Snowden was there - warning Bitcoiners that politicians may just be courting them for votes, which is rude because it is also obviously how politics works.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 29

• 587 B.C. - Babylonian forces destroyed Jerusalem and the First Temple.

• 238 - Rome’s Praetorian Guard seized and murdered 2 emperors, Balbinus and Pupienus, in one afternoon.

• 615 - Pakal became ruler of the Maya city of Palenque at age 12.

• 904 - Saracen raiders sacked Thessalonica and enslaved roughly 22,000 residents.

• 1014 - Byzantine Emperor Basil II blinded thousands of Bulgarian prisoners after defeating their army.

• 1148 - Crusaders abandoned Damascus after only 4 days, effectively wrecking the Second Crusade.

• 1588 - English ships defeated the Spanish Armada at Gravelines.

• 1818 - Augustin Fresnel presented work proving light behaves as a wave.

• 1921 - Adolf Hitler took control of the Nazi Party. Nothing improved from there.

• 1932 - U.S. troops attacked protesting World War I veterans with tanks, bayonets, tear gas and fire.

• 1954 - J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Fellowship of the Ring was published.

• 1958 - President Eisenhower signed the law creating NASA.

• 1981 - Roughly 750 million people watched Prince Charles marry Diana Spencer.

• 2005 - Astronomers announced Eris, the discovery that helped get Pluto demoted. Pricks.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋