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OVERVIEW

Bitcoin Got Picked Last For Risk-On Kickball 🤔

Here’s What’s Happening 👇

NEWS
NYSE's Tokenized Stock Venue Still Doesn't Exist, But Now It Has A Chain ⛓️

NYSE's affiliated digital ATS will use $AVAX ( ▲ 8.69% ) as its blockchain. The NYSE announced it in this morning's pre-market Content Update, wedged in above an AI publisher's $64 million raise and a Peruvian miner's 30th listing anniversary. 🏔️

What the presser says:

  • The job: clearing tokenized equities on-chain "at institutional scale."

  • Who's talking: Ava Labs President Charley Cooper, on NYSE Live.

What it didn't:

  • A name, a launch date or a regulatory status. "Upcoming" is carrying the whole sentence.

  • Which Avalanche. No word on whether it's the C-Chain or an L1 of its own.

None of that stopped AVAX from ripping 13% on today's candle, its best day since Sept. 19. 🥧

AVAX daily Ichimoku chart

So how far did it get? Not far enough to fix the daily chart. AVAX ran from $7.92 to $8.99 and stalled 16 cents under the Kijun-Sen. It's still below the Cloud, and the Chikou Span is still buried in the mid-October candles. 🧱

Resistance ahead:

  • Kijun-Sen, $9.15. It slips to $8.93 Wednesday as October's high ages out, if nothing new prints.

  • The bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span B), $9.51. It barely moves through November.

  • The top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A), $10.59. It sinks to $9.20 by Thanksgiving, and the Cloud flips red on Nov. 23.

Bulls likely want a daily close over the Kijun-Sen first. Bears get giddy if this fades back under the Tenkan-Sen at $8.45, with Sunday's $7.79 low right behind it. 🐻

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Four Charts Have The Same Week Circled 📅

Nov. 16 shows up on three of the following four charts, and the fourth has it bracketed. It's Groundhog Day, except Bill Murray only had to relive one day and Gann wants you staring at nine of them, Nov. 12 through Nov. 20. 📅

Cardano: The Twist Lands On Day 144 🌀

Cardano daily Ichimoku chart with the Kumo twist on Nov. 15-16

ADA's June 25 low was $0.1381. Count forward 144 days and you land on Nov. 16, which is right where the Kumo twists. Which is a big friggin deal, and I don’t think I’ve explained why in a while, but a Kumo Twist is often a date range where moves terminate, reverse, or, in the case of sideways price action, begin to break out.

And why is 144 days important? Gann called the Square of 144 "the great square" and said it worked better than any other square for both time and price. He also wrote that most trend changes come at fractions of the square or at the full square, and day 144 is the full square. It's a Fibonacci number too. 👋

XRP: The Leash Is Pulled Tight 🐕

XRP daily Ichimoku chart showing a gap of roughly 9% under the Tenkan-Sen

XRP is sitting roughly 9% under the Tenkan-Sen today, about as stretched as it's been since June. The only comparable gaps came June 5-6 and Aug. 30, and all of them closed back above the Tenkan-Sen within a week. Price on a retractable leash can wander off for a while, but the leash always wins - well, that’s the theory anyway.

Now the calendar. Aug. 14 was the low at $0.9874, and Nov. 12 is day 90. Gann counted from extreme highs and lows, added 90 days, or ¼ of a year, and looked for a change in trend. His grain and cotton rules say a fast move can run past seven weeks, but around 84 to 90 calendar days it's "very important to watch for a change in trend." Nov. 20 is day 98. Put both on his Square of 12 and they land in the 8th and 9th sections, which Gann called the "death" zone, "the strongest and hardest points to pass." 🛑

Hedera: Gann's Fatal Seventh Week 💀

Hedera daily Ichimoku chart with the 49-52 day window and a 42-day time balance

HBAR's Sept. 28 high of $0.1308 came on a 27% one-day spike, and it's been leaking air for 42 days since, down 48%. Nov. 16 is day 49 and Nov. 19 is day 52.

Gann's rule for fast moves: seven weeks or 49 days "usually marks the culmination" of a rapid move up or down, sometimes on the 52nd day, and the change can start anytime between the 42nd and 49th day. He called the seventh period from the start of anything the most fatal. HBAR hit day 42 today. One Gann caveat worth keeping in your pocket: the turn may be only a minor one. Stack two of these seven-week cycles and you get 98 days, which is XRP's date up top.

Gann kept a second clock on swings like this: balancing time. Measure a swing, then run the same length forward. HBAR's rally from the Aug. 17 low to the Sept. 28 high took 42 days. The slide just matched it, so the time balanced today, and Sunday's low of $0.0644 stopped a hair above the August low.

One catch: back in 1923, Gann wrote that fast bear moves "wind up with wide fluctuations and large volumes of sales." HBAR's slide started at nearly 3x its pre-spike volume, but the last 10 days have run below that average. No climax yet. 😶

Ethereum: Same Square, Same Stretch 📐

Ethereum daily Ichimoku chart with Square of Nine counts on days 36, 64, 100 and 144

ETH's June 25 close of $1,565 was its lowest major closing low, and Nov. 16 is day 144, the same full square as Cardano. It's also pulling the XRP stunt: ETH closed 6% under the Tenkan-Sen on Sunday and is still sitting there today, the widest gap since June 25 itself. That's the day the count started.

Count days from a major low onto the square numbers, and if three of those dates land within two days of a swing high or low, he calls it an accurate match. ETH beat that off the June 25 low: day 36 caught the Aug. 1 low, day 64 the Aug. 27 high and day 100 the Oct. 2 high, each within a day. Day 144, 12 squared, is next on the line. 🎣

NEWS
Schwab Just Moved Three Coins To The Grown-Ups' Table 🦃

Charles Schwab added $SOL ( ▲ 1.03% ), $AVAX ( ▲ 8.69% ) and $LINK ( ▲ 3.13% ) to Schwab Crypto today, next to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto's spent a decade at the card table in the living room. This is the dining room. 🦃

And what's it like in there? About what I expected. Schwab is where your dad's IRA lives, and nobody at that table cares about a 13% candle. They want to talk fees.

  • 75 basis points a trade, which Schwab calls among the industry's lowest. A $10,000 round trip runs you $150.

  • No New York or Louisiana. New York? Makes sense. But since when does Louisiana ever fall into the No Fun For You State?

  • Same plate. Crypto sits beside your stocks on thinkorswim, Schwab.com and the app.

Early access in May, every eligible retail client by October, three more coins today. 🍗

NEWS
Formation's Solana Venue Plans To List Crypto, Crypto And Crypto 🪞

Formation Securities notified the SEC it intends to run a tokenized securities venue on Solana, under the Innovation Exemption the SEC rolled out in September. Trading's expected in early 2027, so nothing's live. 🪞

What's on the shelf at launch? Tokenized shares of $EXOD ( ▲ 10.07% ), $FWDI ( ▼ 2.98% ), and $GLXY ( ▲ 6.22% ), last seen parking $100 million in Sky's savings token.

How it'd work:

  • 24/7 trading against stablecoins in permissioned AMM pools built on $ORCA ( ▲ 3.62% ) (I totally forgot they still existed) tech, settled atomically on-chain.

  • Verified investors only, with caps on what lists and how much trades.

  • Same votes and dividends as the regular shares.

  • Transfer agents still keep the official shareholder books.

Securitize plans to add more tokenized shares. ⛳

STOCKTWITS
It’s Getting Cold. Stocktwits Has A Hawt Anthropic IPO Hoody. 👍

NEWS
PNC Will Take Stablecoins, Then Get Rid Of Them Immediately 🥔

$PNC ( ▲ 2.63% ) is letting corporate and institutional clients receive payments in $USDC ( ▼ 0.02% ), Reuters reports, with $COIN ( ▲ 0.99% )'s payment products doing all the fancy background shtuffs. Each payment gets converted 1-to-1 into dollars and dropped in a PNC deposit account, so the bank never holds the hot potato. 🥔

Run it through the bank-to-English translator:

  • "On a limited basis to eligible clients as part of a pilot program." No client count, no end date.

  • "Incoming stablecoin payments." Incoming. There's no word on sending USDC or holding it.

  • "Testing and learning with our clients." Nobody's signing a long-term lease.

  • "Builds on" the Coinbase relationship. Last year PNC plugged into Coinbase's crypto-as-a-service platform to offer trading.

Last Monday, Uber's HSBC pilot ran corporate cash on-chain without touching USDC or USDT. PNC went the other way, for about as long as it takes to cash a check.

And Coinbase? Friday it was holding the USDC under 82 million Samsung phones. Today it's behind PNC's treasury desk. 🔧

NEWS
Cosmos Gives IBC To The Linux Foundation, ATOM Didn't Make The Release 🔌

IBC trades a single parent for neutral, open governance. Cosmos and the Interchain Foundation contributed IBC, the protocol that moves assets and data between chains, to LF Decentralized Trust, the Linux Foundation's blockchain wing. 🔌

  • $50 billion-plus moved since 2021, across 115-plus networks.

  • Users in suits like Progmat, backed by Mizuho, MUFG and Japan Exchange Group, plus Caribbean and Latin American central banks.

  • Co-sponsors like Wells Fargo's digital assets platform chief. With PNC up top, that's two big U.S. banks in one issue.

Think Stargate SG-1, when the Americans finally let an international committee in on the gate program. The gate keeps working. The builders just aren't the only ones voting anymore.

Banks like standards nobody owns. LF Decentralized Trust already hosts Besu, the software under DTCC's private tokenization chain from late last month.

As for $ATOM ( ▲ 5.04% ), it's sitting at $1.39, down 97% from its record, and the release never names it. 📦

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋