Well, it’s official: last week’s close confirmed an Ideal Bullish Engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. That is, historically (and behaviorally), a signal bulls look at as a green flag for ‘go’. 🟩

But… dangit, look at where it is on the weekly chart. 🤦

It’s in the Cloud. On the weekly. The Cloud.

This is the technical analysis equivalent of watching your 6 year old smiling and happily running into the McDonald’s ball pit, ignoring your shouts of ‘NO! DON’T GO IN THERE!’ and then, after not listening, the six year old stops, looks down at this feet, looks at you and starts to frown, because his socks are wet with something some other Typhoid Mary of a toddler left hidden in Satan’s plastic bacteria ball pit of Hell.

But momentum looks strong - let’s see how the rest of the week plays out. 👿

I’d just like to say that, while justified, what XRP longs have done to those shorting XRP since last Tuesday (September 15) is just cruel and rude. I wouldn’t even call it a bear trap because a bear trap implies there was at least a moment where bears felt like ‘ya, this is gonna be fun.’

Bulls didn’t even give a punch line, they just used a punch. And if today closes above $1.4215, that means the Chikou Span (black) will close above the bodies of the candlesticks and be in open space, confirming an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout on XRP’s daily chart. That would be the first since July 10, 2025. 🥳

Written by yours truly. Super data heavy. Right up your alley. 👀

It’s once a week, on Mondays. Let me know what you think! 👇

Is the bottom in? Nobody knows that in advance, but the On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard answers a different one - how much of what past bottoms looked like is showing up right now?

Six signals, each scored up to 1.00:

Near 0, nothing resembles a bottom. Near 6, most of it does. Let’s look at $BTC ( ▼ 0.18% ), $ETH ( ▼ 0.66% ), $AAVE ( ▲ 0.93% ), and $ADA ( ▲ 4.49% ). 👇

Bitcoin ripped 6% today. But you wouldn’t know that from the on-chain activity. 😶

But the two weeks leading into the pop look like a guy who jogged to the gym and then sat in the parking lot.

Fresh money entering the network, measured by how fast realized cap grows, slowed to about a third of the prior two weeks' pace. The big-money wallets are still growing, but at a third of the speed. New addresses dipped and sit a bit under their one-year average. The largest wallets? Flat. Not buying, not selling.

Small wins: long-term holders got a touch stiller, and volume relative to valuation eased slightly off its expensive extreme. Slightly less bad is still a direction.

The market sits about 51% above what the average holder paid. Bitcoin lows have historically printed at or below that line. It's a house "on sale" at 50% over appraisal.

Better? Around the edges. Catching a bid? On the chart as of Monday and over the last couple weeks. On-chain, not yet. Buyers haven’t bordered yet. 🛳

The score dipped from 3.18 to 3.08 over two weeks, mostly because price climbed 5% (then another 4% Monday). Rising prices shrink the drawdown and thin the discount. It's like failing a fire inspection because the fire went out. 🧑‍🚒

So, skip the score and ask the real question - is anyone buying?

Yes.

The big-money wallets grew nearly 3% in two weeks, a stronger stretch than usual for them. Realized cap, the running tab of what everyone paid for their coins, rose close to 2%. Real dollars are walking in the door, even if the pace cooled from the prior two weeks. And holders are the stillest they've been since at least August 2024 - they set another low this month. Nobody's letting go.

Who's not buying: the largest wallets. They keep leaking coins and sit near the bottom of their two-year range. New addresses are flat and run about 15% below the yearly average, so the crowd isn't growing.

Aaaaand the discount is gone. The market sits about 14% above aggregate cost basis. You're paying retail now. Better? Yes. Catching a bid? Yes - from the middle of the room, not the top table. 😶

Two weeks ago, Aave's big-money wallets were heading for the exits - down almost 5%. This time? Down about half a percent. That's not a rally. That's the tourniquet working. 😷

The largest wallets went from trimming to adding. Barely - a rounding error. Holders got noticeably stiller, with the share of supply moving over the past year dropping more than a full point. Volume relative to valuation fell 12%, so coins are changing hands cheaper relative to what people paid. Price steadied after a 3% slide the two weeks before, then jumped 4% Monday.

New addresses slipped a little and sit just under the yearly average. Realized cap is barely growing, so fresh money isn't flooding in. The largest wallets still hold slightly less than they did in August 2024.

Holders sit about 10% underwater, and price is 66% below the December 2024 high. The patient is off the table and breathing on his own but he’s not ready to run a marathon yet. 🏃

Cardano is a nice house with the lights on upstairs and nobody at the front door. 🏚

The largest wallets own more ADA than at any point since August 2024 and they're still adding, just slower than two weeks ago. The big-money wallets flipped from shrinking to growing, up almost 4%. Price nudged up 2% over the two weeks, then popped nearly 8% today. That's a bid, and it's coming from people with real balances.

The doorbell stopped ringing. New addresses dropped more than a quarter versus the prior two weeks and run about a third below the yearly average. Realized cap shrank, meaning coins moving at a loss outweighed new money coming in. It sits near its lowest level in two years. Volume relative to valuation got pricier, back near the high end.

Holders are 40% underwater on average and price is 83% off the December 2024 high. Score slipped from 3.96 to 3.68, mostly on fading newcomers and pricier volume. 😐

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
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