Grandpa Bitcoin, whose mood decides everybody else's.

Ethereum, the middle child who's brilliant in January and a maybe for Thanksgiving.

XRP, the brother-in-law. Either he doesn't show or he lands a helicopter in the yard.

Dogecoin, the nephew who peaked in 2021 and still brings it up.

Zcash, the cousin who vanished for six years and came back rich.

Solana, the son-in-law who married in with the wrong crowd.

8 of 13 green. Median +8.8%. The +41% average is 2013's +450%, the story he tells every year while the gravy congeals.

Red Novembers average -19%, and four of the five were -16% or worse.

Never three bad Thanksgivings in a row. Last year was bad.

Red November, red December: five for five. He sulks through Christmas.

Good years: in the driveway by November 12th, never more than 6.3% under the open, except 2017, when he threw his back out on the SegWit2x weekend, dipped -13.7%, then ate more than anyone.

Bad years: the low lands by Nov 21st or later, at least 13% under.

October's low held in every green November; four of five red ones broke it. That low for this year is $76,173, 1.6% under the open.

BTC’s Dominance has fallen 10 out of 12 Novembers - meaning altcoins typically outperform Bitcoin.

$72,550 is the monthly Tenkan, the weekly Kijun, and -6.3%. Three rulers, one line. Bulls looking for long opportunities above it.

$66,800: below here every November on record has been red. Bears get giddy.

$83,555 by Nov 20 or the quarter's red. He's never fixed that from a red October. 😶

Median -9.3%, his second-worst month. Only September is worse.

Green Novembers average +34.5%. Red ones average -22%, and every one traded at least -27.6% under the open.

After a red October: 1 of 4 green, and the one was 2024.

Green-year dips topped out at 8.7%. Red-year drawdowns started at 27.6%. Nothing in eleven years landed between.

In five of six red years, the month's low printed the same day it first hit -27.6%.

October's low: held in all five green Novembers, broken in five of six red. This year it's $2,170, 3.7% under the open.

October closed under the monthly Cloud ($2,541 to $2,778), the second time ever. The other was 2023, +13%.

$2,156 is the monthly Tenkan and the weekly Kijun, $14 under October's low.

$2,056 is -8.7%. No green November has traded below it. That's the door.

Bulls get nervous under $2,156. Bears get giddy under $2,056. 🐻

5 of 12 green. Median -9.7%, it is $XRP ( ▲ 2.38% )’s worst month of the year. Worse than June.

The seven red Novembers finished -9% to -23%. Three of the five green ones finished +146%, +178% and +285%.

After two reds, a green: three for three. November 2024 was green. November 2025 was red.

October 2024 closed below the monthly Tenkan, Kijun and Cloud, every condition you can fail. November 2024 did +285%.

The monster Novembers were the whole year: 2024 was +238% for the year, -12% across the other eleven months.

Three of seven red Novembers rallied more than 21% above the open before finishing down. Grandpa's best red-year bounce is 12.5%.

The green-red gap is three cents, $1.13 to $1.10. The rule exists, technically. Don't trade it.

He's flipped the quarter after Nov 20 three times. Everyone else, zero.

$1.20 is October's low. $1.34 changes the chart. $1.57 means he’s showing up in a helicopter. 🚁

3 of 7 green. Median -11.2%, his tenth-best month. The +21% average is November 2024's +161% doing all the work, the way one good semester carries a transcript.

His month is January, not November. $DOGE ( ▲ 1.63% ) is a New Year's guest who gets dragged to Thanksgiving.

A red November has never been followed by a green December. Four for four.

Green years: the low was in by Nov 3, dips of 4% to 12%.

Red years: lows on the 9th, 21st, 25th, 26th, drawdowns of 19% to 44%.

The Nov 20 lock-in holds for everyone else; he's 5 of 7. Twice he was up double digits on the 20th and finished the quarter down.

0.0946 is the Q4 open. 25.3% over the November open.

0.0722, October's low, 4.5% under. 0.0665, the deepest healthy dip ever. 🥄

Nine Novembers that count. I’m not using 2016 because $ZEC ( ▲ 6.11% )’s November 2016 was -96%: it started on launch-week prices (Kraken's first bar has a $30,000 high) and ended at something a human would pay.

6 of 9 green, tied with March for his best month. Three green in a row coming in; only Grandpa's done that.

Green Octobers led to green Novembers 4 of 4. Red Octobers, 2 of 5. This one was red.

Green-year dips: 5% to 16%. Red-year drawdowns: 33% to 49%. Nothing between. He's already dipped 10%, his worst November start ever. The prior worst, 2020, finished +36%.

Thanksgiving week is green 8 of 10, best at the table.

The catch is December: green November, green December only 2 of 6. He leaves before the pie's cut.

$1,056 is the deepest healthy dip; October's low is $1,048.

$841 is the red-year floor, $860 the monthly Kijun. Bears giddy there.

If he hasn't bottomed by Nov 21, he's doing something new. 🧠

2020: +27%, inside a -48% quarter. 2021: +3%, the wedding. 2022: -56.5%, FTX; Nov 8-9 alone was -52%. 2023: +54%. 2024: +41%, in one seven-day streak. 2025: -29%.

4 of 6 green, median +14.9%. The two reds averaged -43%. When he's bad he's the worst thing at the table, and the table includes XRP.

A green November gave back December 3 of 4 times. Good Thanksgiving, bad Christmas. Family tradition.

Green-year dips: 1.6% to 10.7%, 2020's 17.8% the outlier. Red years: 35% and 66%. Nothing between.

He broke October's low ($92.34) on Nov 2, which is also the monthly Tenkan and weekly Kijun. Only 2020 did that and still went green, and 2020 bottomed on the 4th. So it's 2020, or it's 2022 and 2025, which bottomed on the 21st and 22nd.

Thanksgiving week is green 2 of 6, worst at the table. Nov 12 is red 6 of 6, impressive consistency for a man who can't keep a job.

$92.54: back above it on a daily close and the 2020 reading lives.

$62.09: -35%, the shallowest red drawdown, two dollars above the June low.

Wonderful at two dinners, fine at two, set something on fire at two. 🔥