OVERVIEW

Hope Is Back Like A Drunk Uncle With A Pontoon ⛴️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ROAM ( ▲ 18.39% ) , $BONK ( ▼ 1.61% ) , $XCN ( ▼ 0.26% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 2.69% ) , and $JASMY ( ▲ 0.88% )

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So. The market is green. It feels good. But how do you feel about it?

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
The Composite MVRV 🪗

MVRV is Market Value over Realized Value. Market value is what a coin's supply is worth right now. Realized value is what that supply last moved at - the aggregate cost basis of everyone holding. Divide one by the other and you get a single number that says whether the average holder is sitting in profit or underwater.

• Above 1.0, the market is worth more than what people paid, so holders are green.

• Below 1.0, aggregate cost basis is above spot, and the average coin is underwater.

Historically the deep-below-1.0 stretches line up with capitulation and accumulation zones, the stretched-above readings with froth and distribution.

The Composite MVRV here blends three lookbacks - 180, 90, and 60 day - instead of full-history realized value. That trades cycle-level context for responsiveness. The 1.0 line becomes a rolling break-even tuned to recent holders rather than coins that last moved in 2017.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Composite MVRV 🪙

Still under the 1.0 break-even line, and it's been there a while - 51 straight days, 53 of the last 60. But the floor's in the rearview. This bounced off 0.699 back on Feb 5, which was the aggregate-holder capitulation low for the window, and it's clawed up +0.054 over the past week and +0.053 over the month.

It's still down from 0.9985 ninety days ago, so the recovery is real but it hasn't reclaimed where it was in mid-April. Not a screaming accumulation signal anymore - that was February. More like a market grinding back toward its own cost basis with price struggling to hold $65K.

Reclaiming 1.0 would be the first time since May.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum Composite MVRV 🥈

This is the one knocking on the door. Ethereum's composite is a rounding error away from 1.0 after ripping +0.108 in a week and +0.161 over the month - the steepest recovery of the four.

It's been below break-even for 66 straight days, longer than BTC. Ninety days ago it printed 0.9968, so ETH has essentially recovered to its April footing, unlike Bitcoin. Price near $1,890. One green candle flips the entire aggregate holder base from underwater to break-even.

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Uniswap Composite MVRV 🦄

Is… Is this… Good God it’s above 1.

Uniswap's composite ripped from 0.867 to 1.19 in a month - a +0.327 move that also happens to be the +0.322 ninety-day change, meaning basically all the action is recent. It flipped above 1.0 fourteen days ago and hasn't looked back. $UNI ( ▼ 2.15% ) ’s current read clears 99% of the entire window and sits a whisker under the Nov high of 1.2198.

For context, 46 of the last 60 days were still below break-even, so this is a violent, fresh repricing, not a slow climb. Aggregate holders are now solidly green after months underwater. That's the good news and the warning label - readings this far above cost basis are where profit-taking and distribution tend to show up. But if enough new entrants keep piling in, that might not happen for a while.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano Composite MVRV 🧠

$ADA ( ▲ 0.92% ) ’s composite is still parked well below 1.0 and hasn't shown much urgency about leaving - up a measly +0.013 on the week while BTC and ETH were climbing. The month looks better at +0.092, and it's off the Feb 5 low of 0.584, but this is the weakest recovery of the group.

Current read clears 77% of the window, which sounds fine until you note the window mean is 0.794 - so ADA at 0.8655 is barely above its own average misery. 

Aggregate holders are deep underwater - roughly 13% below cost basis - and staying there.

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NEWS
Arbitrage Gets Awkward When Your Backer Is the Rival 🫢

Good piece here from Financial Times.

A previously private fight involving $CRCL ( ▲ 3.91% ) and a $USDT ( ▼ 0.02% ) -backed investment fund has spilled into public court filings.

Circle is asking a federal court in Boston to confirm an arbitration victory against Heka Funds. As part of that effort, Circle pushed documents from the confidential proceeding into the public record. Those filings revealed that Tether had invested roughly $800 million in Heka through a linked fund, representing about 75% of Heka’s assets.

Circle blocked Heka in late 2023 after suspecting the fund was aggressively redeeming USDC for dollars in a strategy that benefited Tether. Heka later demanded $49 million in lost profits. The arbitrator rejected that claim, found Heka acted in bad faith and awarded Circle roughly $166,000 in costs.

Heka denies manipulating the market. It now accuses Circle of publicizing confidential material to distract from the real dispute: Circle’s refusal to redeem its USDC for cash. It really just feels like a ‘gotcha’ lawyer thing to rub it in. Well played.

NEWS
Your Privacy Proof Would Like An Nvidia Budget 🤯

A proposed Zcash grant wants to use $NVDA ( ▲ 0.33% ) tensor cores to accelerate Orchard and Ironwood proving by 1.5 to 2 times on H100 GPUs.

For those not in the know, $ZEC ( ▲ 7.62% ) hides transaction details while still proving that nobody created counterfeit coins or spent the same money twice. Producing that mathematical proof takes several seconds and uses considerable computing power. Fine for one person. Less fine when an exchange needs to process thousands of withdrawals.

The developers believe H100 chips could produce these proofs 1.5 to 2 times faster. That would help exchanges, bridges and trading services process far more shielded Zcash transactions without building a server room that looks like it needs its own power plant. And in case you’re wondering, those H100s are between $25k and $40k a pop.

The team may later develop a version for ordinary Nvidia gaming cards. Way cheaper than the H100s but still, good luck finding an RTX 5090 that doesn’t cost $4k - $6k.

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DEFI
Cardano’s Treasury Discovers Diversification After Losing $167M 🤔

$ADA ( ▲ 0.92% ) ’s treasury held 1.474 billion ADA worth roughly $233 million on July 13. In March, roughly the same pile was valued near $400 million. 

Two Monte Carlo models using 25,000 paths each placed the treasury’s 1-in-20 bad year between a 73% and 94% loss in dollar value. That 21-point gap is model risk yelling through a bullhorn. A theoretical 10% allocation to $BTC ( ▲ 0.65% ) and stablecoins improved one-year expected shortfall by roughly $14 million. Useful? Meh.

Converting $100 million while limiting sales to 5% to 10% of daily volume could take around 2 months in normal conditions or nearly a year during a crisis. Estimated market impact lands between $27 million and $41 million. Even that depends on whether ADA’s daily volume is $24 million or ten times higher.

Should a treasury hold 100% of its assets in the token it exists to support? Probably not. Can it diversify by dumping nearly half its dollar value into the market? Also probably not.

DEFI
StakedCelo Has 12 Bad Groups & One Slow Multisig 🧑‍🤝‍🧑

StakedCelo has roughly 5.43 million CELO trapped across 12 unhealthy validator groups. Six groups are dead. Six are failing.

The largest dead group holds around 2.25 million $CELO ( ▼ 2.61% ) . The largest failing group holds another 2.40 million. Automated bots can drain and skip bad groups during rebalancing, but they cannot remove those groups or add replacements. Only the owner multisig can change the approved set.

The proposed fix replaces the six current signers with the six members of the cLabs Security Council. The threshold remains three of six, and the seven-day execution delay stays intact. Collecting three signatures currently takes weeks. The council expects to handle submission on the same day.

Is this more centralized? Yes. Is a diversified signer group useful when it cannot assemble three signatures before the replacement validator also dies? Less clear.

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DEFI
NEAR Governance Cuts Its Budget & Keeps The Lawyers ✂️

$NEAR ( ▲ 2.02% ) ’s House of Stake is requesting $196,000 plus 60,000 NEAR to operate from July 2026 through June 2027. The revised request is only 23.16% of its original April budget.

The dollar portion assigns $142,000 to legal and compliance work and $54,000 to IT. A separate 60,000 NEAR allocation covers an operations manager. The proposal also says personnel costs are excluded.

House of Stake wants operational independence over treasury management, compliance and execution while continuing to use NEAR Foundation infrastructure for software, KYC, payment rails, data and some legal support. Independent, but still on the family phone plan.

And there is no contingency buffer. NEAR Foundation has agreed to help during genuine emergencies. Unused funds remain in the House of Stake treasury, and quarterly reports will track spending, compliance and execution performance.

Is $196,000 excessive for governance infrastructure? Not really. Is spending 72% of the dollar budget on lawyers and compliance the glorious decentralized future anyone imagined? Also no.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 15

• 1099 - Crusaders captured Jerusalem

• 1410 - Poland-Lithuania crushed the Teutonic Knights at Grunwald

• 1789 - Lafayette took command of Paris’ National Guard

• 1799 - The Rosetta Stone was found in Egypt

• 1834 - Spain abolished the Spanish Inquisition, only took 350 years

• 1870 - Georgia became the last Confederate state readmitted to the Union

• 1916 - Boeing was founded as Pacific Aero Products

• 1965 - Mariner 4 sent back the first close-up image of Mars

• 1974 - A Greek-backed coup hit Cyprus

• 2006 - Twitter launched to the public

• 2016 - Turkey’s failed coup attempt erupted

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋