OVERVIEW

Fine. I’m Ready To Be Hurt Again 🫂

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

NEWS
Charts, Charts, Charts 📈

Ethereum

Man, I spent way to long today going through nearly 2+ years worth of ETH tagged content in this newsletter because I swore I’ve shown an ETH chart with a series of trendlines that look like a fan.

Nope. I mean it’s totally possible I missed it. Hell, I even had an MCP in Claude and ChatGPT scour all the newsletters to find it. Zip. Lo’ and behold it appears I only ever really posted about it on the Stocktwits platform:

Anyway - the point I’m trying to make is Ethereum is back above the lowest trendline. It closed above it yesterday and remains above it as of 1330 EST.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is doing very well today. And if BTC were to end the week today, this week would be its best performing week since the week of November 4, 2024. Hell, if it keeps pamping, it’ll beat even that week!

Total Crypto Market Cap

There’s still another three and half days of the week left, but as it stands today, the crypto market is positioned to close above the weekly Kijun-Sen for the first time since the week of October 27, 2025.

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ON-CHAIN ANALYTICS
Biggest. Short. Liquidation. Ever. 🤯

According to CoinGlass’s data, yesterday’s short liquidations were $2.739 billion. That’s a big number. In fact, it’s the largest short liquidation ever. Well, at least according to CoinGlass it is - their data only goes back to 2021 for measuring liquidations.

The prior ‘winner’ for biggest short wipe out ever was on October 9th, 2025 with $2.467 billion in shorts liquidated. Which is absolutely dwarfed by the what happened to longs that day. The number of longs liquidated on October 9th, 2025 was more than 6x what we saw yesterday with shorts: 16.783 billion.

So, yes, the short liquidations were big. And they were the biggest since October 2025 - but they’re nothing compared to the number of longs wiped out in October 2025.

Just keep that in mind. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Structural Conviction Index Says… 🤔

We haven’t look at the Structural Conviction Index (SCI) for a while and today is a good day to do it. 📆

As a refresher, I created the SCI because I got tired of reading and writing different versions of ‘on-chain data is mixed.’ There’s just so much more that can be observed and analyzed with on-chain data now that we don’t have to be limited to just one single piece of data as a single measurement of how things are doing.

In a nutshell, the SCI measures Age Migration (90-day Mean Coin Age with a 14-day rate of change), Custody Migration (7-day net exchange flows), and Concentration Migration (whale wallets/entities minus smaller wallets with a 14-day rate of change).

The result is a proprietary scoring system that helps answer questions like, ‘are hodlers excited or in a state of panic?’ and ‘is this move honest?’.

The question it doesn't answer: where price goes next week. The SCI has no opinion. It measures the structure that price action eventually has to deal with.

Let’s get into it. 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
SCI: Bitcoin, Ethereum & Chainlink ⛓️

$BTC ( ▲ 6.2% )  

Coins/tokens are aging faster than at nearly any point this year. Encouraging, until you notice they're aging up from an extremely young base. It's a 24-year-old telling you about his tenure.

Then the wallet data. The biggest holders keep shrinking and the tier just below them keeps growing by almost exactly the same amount. Nobody left the building. The estate simply got divided. Whales are turning into a larger number of slightly less enormous whales, and the ordinary holder's slice of Bitcoin has moved about as much as a parked car.

Meanwhile exchange balances rose all year (kind of touched on that in yesterday’s newsletter). So coins are getting older while drifting toward the one place designed for selling them, which is a man announcing he's quitting drinking as he signs a lease across the street from the bar.

Lean: Neutral

$ETH ( ▲ 11.2% )  

Wallets holding six figures of ETH gave up a serious chunk of total supply this year. It landed one rung down, then another rung below that, then another. An estate sale where every neighbor goes home with a lamp and the whole street agrees this is marvelous for property values.

Whether you like that depends on whether you'd rather ETH sit with a few people who can move the market or with a lot of people who can't.

One consistent behavior: exchange balances have been falling steadily all year. One afternoon last November somebody backed a truck up to an exchange and drove off with roughly one percent of every ETH in existence (probably a guy name Tom Lee).

Cutting against it, small wallets have been growing faster than large ones lately, and ETH has stacked up more all-three-gauges-bearish days than anything else here. Enormous amounts of motion an no clear destination.

Lean: Neutral

$LINK ( ▲ 4.9% )

LINK is the only asset here where all three gauges agree, and they've held the pose for going on two months.

And the migration between wallet sizes so tidy it looks choreographed. An enormous quantity of LINK left the very largest holders and reappeared in the tier directly beneath, close to one for one. Something like, a twelfth of every LINK in existence slid down exactly one bracket and then stopped.

Stack on top of that: LINK has been leaving exchanges roughly two days in three for a year, coins are aging, and the gulf between the largest wallets and the smallest keeps widening.

Something is being accumulated but guest list is short and you're not on it, kind of like what happened to me last year for Stocktoberfest. I wasn’t cool enough to go. BUT I AM THIS YEAR DAMNIT.

Lean: Bullish

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
SCI: Aave & Uniswap 🦄

$AAVE ( ▲ 4.4% )

Zero positive gauges. All three pointed down, which happens, and all three sitting unusually close together, which doesn't. These three normally can't agree on what day it is.

Aave is also the only asset here where coins are getting younger. Supply that had been sitting untouched for a long stretch has started moving again, and dormant money waking up is not usually the beginning of a good story. It's the phone ringing at 3 a.m. Nobody calls at 3 a.m. with good news.

The largest tier of wallets has been shedding supply for five straight months and it keeps surfacing in much smaller wallets. Big, then less big, then less big again, like a hand-me-down sweater working its way down through a family.

Lean: Bearish

$UNI ( ▲ 4.4% )

UNI has the internal consistency of a horoscope. Across five months, all three gauges have managed to point the same direction on something like nine days out of a hundred and sixty.

UNI's coins age when they aren't headed to exchanges and stop aging the second they are. The two gauges are wired together backwards, like a thermostat plumbed into the oven. One rises, the other falls, and the composite sits in the middle with no opinion and no plans to form one.

At the moment, coins/tokens are aging faster here than anywhere else in this group. Sounds terrific. Then you glance at the other side and find a serious pile of UNI showing up on exchanges inside a single week. Measured over a full year instead of three months, UNI's coin age has barely budged. Smallest gain in the batch by a distance.

More long-term airport parking than diamond hands.

Lean: Neutral

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋