OVERVIEW

Everybody's Underwater And Nobody's Selling 👍️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers:

NEWS
On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard 📇

It’s been a few weeks since we’ve look at the On-chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard. As a refresher, I developed it because every drawdown results in variations and derivatives of the same question: is the bottom in?

Nobody can answer that in advance, so the On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard answers a different question - how much of what past bottoms looked like is showing up right now.

It’s made up of six pieces of data:

1. Whether long-term holders have parked and barked

2. Whether the biggest wallets are buying

3. Whether money is coming in

4. How cheap the crypto trades against network activity

5. How far underwater hodlers are

6. How deep the drawdown is

Toss them together with some fancy shmancy math stuffs and you get a rating beween 0 and 6. Near 0, nothing resembles a bottom. Near 6, most of it does. Six tickers this week. Let's take a look. 👇️ 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano 🧠

Quick note: I limited the look lookback for $ADA ( ▲ 4.66% ) to October-ish 2020 (well, all the tickers go back that far), so doesn’t reflect the post-Byron shtuff. But within that window, wallets holding 100K+ ADA now own more Cardano than at any point since - the single highest reading, printed this month, on a coin trading 95% below its 2021 peak. 

These wallets have absorbed 2.49 billion ADA over the stretch and they added more over the past month and the past quarter. Whatever conviction is, they have a clinical case of it.

Meanwhile the front door is boarded up. New wallet creation just printed the lowest levels I can find going back to October 2020 - lower than any bear-market stretch, lower than any holiday lull, lower than everything in the window. And wallets worth at least $100K shed 39% of its membership in a quarter, though to be fair, when the price falls this hard, a lot of those wallets didn't leave so much as get demoted below the velvet rope.

So the picture is a nearly empty theater where the remaining audience keeps buying more tickets. Holders sit 57% underwater and dormancy is building. Call it slightly bullish - the structural bid is real and getting bigger, but until somebody new walks in, this is whales talking to themselves.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Curve Finance 🪝

In memoriam: Curve's price, 2022–2026. Down 97% from the January 2022 high. Down 33% from where it stood in October 2020, back when DeFi summer was still warm to the touch.

By every chart-based measure, this thing has been lowered into the ground, eulogized, and the catering has been eaten.

Somebody forgot to tell the whales. Since October 2020, wallets holding 100K+ $CRV ( ▲ 2.01% ) have grown their stack by 69% - a net add of 934 million CRV - with their holdings printing the highest level of the entire window this month.

Five and a half years of price destruction and the biggest wallets responded by never once, in aggregate, reversing course. The $100K wallet count went from 23 at to 276 now, which sounds heroic until you remember 276 is roughly the attendance of a decent high school graduation.

What's missing is a pulse in usage: network activity relative to valuation is scraping along the top of its range, the bad end. Slightly bullish. The veCRV faithful never left. They're just alone in the building with 56% unrealized losses and remarkable posture.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Uniswap 🦄

Price: $3.69. Down 92% from May 2021. Holders: 65% underwater on aggregate cost basis.

The largest wallets: gone fishing. Since October 2020, wallets holding 100K+ $UNI ( ▲ 5.39% ) peaked that very first week - they have never held more since, just a slow bleed across five-plus years.

But the $100K wallet crowd grew 11% in the past month. Ten percent on the quarter. Somebody with real money is walking into a token at multi-year lows while the whales nap. Small group, sharp move, worth watching.

Slightly bullish, on the strength of the mid-tier and the discount. Flat close.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Aave 🟦

You’d think the KelpDAO incident would have wrecked $AAVE ( ▲ 5.49% ) more, but it hasn’t. Maybe something to do with that big $3k target Standard Chartered has? Maybe.

The $100K+ wallet count jumped 18% in a single month - the sharpest one-month move I can find going back to October 2020. It was dead flat on the quarter, meaning the entire surge is recent. 

New wallet creation is running near its fastest monthly pace in that whole window, roughly double its own quarterly average. Fresh addresses, fresh money, all inside the last several weeks, on a token 86% below its 2021 high.

The suspects it's not: whales. Wallets holding 10K+ AAVE peaked the very first week of my data - October 2020 - and have bled 14% since. They didn't move last month either. Whatever drew a crowd, the biggest holders looked at it and went back to their crossword.

Holders overall sit 28% below cost basis, and long-term supply is still churning rather than settling, so this isn't a textbook base. But an 18% mid-tier jump with a new-wallet spike doesn't happen for no reason.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum 🥈

There are two true things aboot (attempt at written northern accent on purpose) $ETH ( ▲ 6.56% ) right now, and they don't get along.

True thing number one: ETH holders have essentially stopped moving. One-year active supply sits at 37.2%, a hair off the lowest reading since October 2020. The base has calcified into something geological. This is the behavioral signature you find in the neighborhood of major lows - people who've decided they'd rather ride it to zero than click sell.

True thing number two: the mega-wallets have spent five and a half years leaving. Wallets holding 10K+ ETH have shed 41% of their coins since October 2020 - a 30.7 million ETH exodus - and they shrank again this past month and this past quarter. However, a good chunk of that is, I imagine, structural (coins migrating to staking contracts, etc).

Bonus thing: new address creation is running near its fastest since Oct 2020. New wallets are arriving at bull-market pace into a bear-market chart.

Overall, things look very neutral.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin 🪙

The doctor will see Bitcoin now, and the doctor is not smiling.

Let's do the bad news. Network volume relative to valuation printed the single worst reading I can find going back to October 2020 this week - worse than any point in five and a half years of data. Aggregate holders remain 20% above their cost basis, and Bitcoin's prior cycle lows have historically arrived at or below that line, not comfortably above it.

New wallet creation is scraping the bottom of my whole lookback - Bitcoin at $64,200 is onboarding 41% fewer new addresses per month than Bitcoin at $13,000 was in October 2020, which is the adoption-curve equivalent of a restaurant that raised prices 5x and wonders where the foot traffic went. And the $100K wallet count has been roughly cut in half from its September 2025 peak.

The doctor does have some good news. Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC - the big boys - added over both the past month and the past quarter. That's the first sustained stretch of large-holder accumulation in a while, and it's happening 49% below the October high. Worth noting: even after buying, these wallets hold 8.8% fewer BTC than they did in October 2020. 

They've spent five years distributing into strength and just started nibbling into weakness.

Prognosis: slightly bearish. The reset that has marked every prior Bitcoin cycle low hasn't happened - not on cost basis, not on drawdown depth, not on activity.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

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