OVERVIEW

Crypto Gets The Rescue Dog Treatment - Loved, Fed, Watched For Sudden Movements 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ADA ( ▼ 0.69% ) , $KTA ( ▼ 1.64% ) , $XCN ( ▼ 2.86% ) , $TAO ( ▲ 2.52% ) , and $PI ( ▲ 0.63% )  

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard 📇 

The On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard was something I created late last year because I wanted to know: Ok, what are some of the conditions a ticker previously sat in before things started to accumulate and then turn into a new leg higher? 🤔

Very simply, there’s a composite rating given between 0 and 6. If the aggregate reading is near 0, there’s very little evidence of a bottom. If it’s near 6, there’s a boat load of things that look like a bottom is developing or is in.

These are the pieces of data that make up the scorecard:

• Holder Resolve - what share of the supply has moved in the past year? If it drops, long-term hodlers have stopped selling.

• Whale Bid - measures if the largest wallets are adding or removing to their stash.

• Mid-Tier Accumulation - checks wallets that have $100k or more worth in their wallets and if that value is rising or falling (relative to what’s in there and age, it’s a little complicated MVRV math stuff).

• Transactional Cheapness - how much value the network is moving relative to what hodlers paid.

• Valuation Reset - how far the market is trading below what the average holders paid.

• Drawdown Depth - this just measures how far price is from the prior cycle high.

The net result of all that is, I think, I a fairly good representation of how things are sitting. It’s not a prediction, just a measurement. 🧠 

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Cardano, XRP, Uniswap, & Dogecoin 🔢

$ADA ( ▼ 0.69% )  

Wallets holding 1M+ ADA just completed an 8.5-year round trip - back within a rounding error of their December 2017 holdings, the second-highest level in my data, after adding 2.6% this quarter.

New wallet creation sits in the bottom fifth of the record, the $100K crowd shed a third of its members this quarter, and volume is expensive. Holders are 50% underwater, 94% off the high, and going dormant. Slightly bullish.

$XRP ( ▼ 0.35% )  

Wallets holding 1M+ XRP sit at twelve-year lows after shedding 16 billion coins. Escrow mechanics share the blame, but the direction never changed. Meanwhile RVT just compressed 55% in a month to nearly the cheapest reading since 2014.

Holders 54% underwater, price 71% off last July's high. The $100K wallet count is down 72% from its 2025 peak. Neutral, leaning constructive. 

$UNI ( ▼ 1.19% )  

Out of all the hodlers of the tickers we’re looking at today, Uniswap holders have the deepest discount of being 63% underwater. New wallet creation is down 95%. The 1M+ UNI wallets peaked in October 2020 and have drifted lower ever since.

BUT… the $100K crowd grew 12% this month and 10% on the quarter. Real money walking into a dead room and buying. Slightly bullish.

$DOGE ( ▼ 0.16% )  

So, this is kind of funny: Wallets holding 1M+ DOGE own more than at any point (well, since at least November 2017) in it’s history. Up 43%, some 42 billion Doge. through a 91% collapse.

Holders have the discipline of a pension fund. The rest is just a dead room: volume-to-valuation at the 98th percentile, the $100K wallet count down 39% this quarter, new arrivals scarce. Holders 44% underwater. Slightly bullish.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Ethereum, Chainlink, Aave, & Bitcoin 🔢

$ETH ( ▲ 0.47% )  

Two decade-extremes printed the same week. One-year active supply hit 36.0% - the lowest in ten years of data. Holders have never been this still. And wallets holding 100K+ ETH hit their lowest level since 2016, down 62%, though staking migration does part of that work.

New wallet creation runs at the 92nd percentile - bull-market foot traffic into a 62% drawdown. The catch: holders are only 10% underwater. By capitulation standards, a stubbed toe. Neutral.

$LINK ( ▼ 0.43% )  

Holders 47% underwater, price 85% below the May 2021 high, both locked in long enough to qualify as climate. Volume sits at the 87th percentile of RVT readings - drought. One mild positive: the $100K wallet count ticked up 2% this month after a 14% quarterly slide. Neutral, leaning gray.

$AAVE ( ▼ 2.89% )  

Cheap and beaten down - 87% off the 2021 high, holders a third underwater. That's the whole highlight reel. Wallets holding 100K+ AAVE have withdrawn 40% of their holdings since October 2020 and sit near the bottom of the record, with one small uptick this month.

Holder activity is churning near the top of its range instead of settling. And the mid-tier surge from earlier this summer flatlined - dead even on the quarter. Neutral. 

$BTC ( ▲ 0.77% )  

The good news: wallets holding 1,000+ BTC added 1.9% this quarter and now hold 5.7% more than in June 2018. The big money is buying the drawdown. The market sits 20% above cost basis - every prior cycle low printed at or below.

RVT hit 170, the worst volume-to-valuation reading in eight years. The $100K wallet count halved since October. And new wallets sit at the 6th percentile - $64K Bitcoin onboarding 2018 quantities at 10x the price. Slightly bearish. 

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Crypto added more than $100B back to market cap.

• BTC ETFs pulled in about $5.6B over the past 30 days, while ETH ETFs took in about $5.5B and saw AUM double to roughly $21B.

• CrediX got wrecked for $4.5M - a compromised admin role allegedly let an attacker mint unbacked stablecoins, yank real collateral, and bridge funds from Sonic to Ethereum.

• Deepfake voice tools, fake advisory gigs, malware files, and a shady NPM package with 1,500+ downloads showed scammers no longer need to be smart, just “AI-enabled,” which is society’s new lowest bar.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 4

• 70 - Roman forces destroyed Jerusalem’s Second Temple during the city’s brutal siege.

• 367 - Roman emperor Valentinian I named his 8-year-old son Gratian co-emperor

• 1265 - Simon de Montfort was killed and mutilated at the Battle of Evesham, crushing England’s baronial rebellion.

• 1578 - Three kings died at the Battle of Alcácer Quibir, triggering Portugal’s succession crisis and eventual takeover by Spain.

• 1704 - Anglo-Dutch forces captured Gibraltar, which Britain still controls.

• 1790 - George Washington authorized 10 revenue cutters, creating the future U.S. Coast Guard.

• 1914 - Britain declared war on Germany after German troops invaded neutral Belgium.

• 1916 - The U.S. agreed to purchase the Danish West Indies for $25 million in gold. They became the U.S. Virgin Islands.

• 1964 - The bodies of murdered civil-rights workers Chaney, Goodman and Schwerner were found in Mississippi.

• 1977 - President Jimmy Carter created the U.S. Department of Energy.

• 2020 - Nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut, killing over 200 and injuring more than 7,000.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋