OVERVIEW

Brain Says “Don’t Do It” While The Heart Whispers “What If This Time…” 😮‍💨

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ELON ( ▼ 4.96% ) , $BNB ( ▼ 1.21% ) , $MOG ( ▲ 0.02% ) , $WLD ( ▼ 4.24% ) , and $AMP ( ▲ 1.72% )  

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard

The On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard grades a crypto asset across six signals that have historically shown up near cycle lows: whether long-term holders have gone quiet, whether the biggest wallets are buying, whether serious money is arriving, how cheap coins trade relative to network activity, how far below average cost holders sit, and how deep the drawdown runs.

Each gets a score, adding to a reading out of six. Higher means more of the bottoming pieces are in place. It's a snapshot of where things stand right now. It’s not a buy signal, a sell signal, or a prediction - it’s a snapshot of where things are right now.

Today, we’re looking at Curve Finance, XRP, Ethereum, Aave, and Litecoin. 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Curve Finance - On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🟢

🟡 Holder Resolve - 0.50 · 🟡 Whale Bid - 0.49 · 🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation - 0.54 · 🔴 Transactional Cheapness - 0.12 · 🟢 Valuation Reset - 1.00 · 🟢 Drawdown Depth - 1.00

$CRV ( ▼ 5.07% ) tops this group for a good reason: it's the only one where the biggest holders are actually buying rather than sitting on their hands or heading out. CRV has fallen far enough to be deeply discounted - buyers today are paying well below what the average holder paid - and the large wallets have been adding to their stake through the decline.

That's the combination you want to see when a floor is forming. The thing holding it back is quiet network usage; activity hasn't picked up yet. But of the six, this is the one where the smart money is leaning in rather than away.

Read - Slightly Bullish. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP - On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🟢

🔴 Holder Resolve - 0.06 · 🟡 Whale Bid - 0.54 · 🔴 Mid-Tier Accumulation - 0.18 · 🟢 Transactional Cheapness - 0.75 · 🟢 Valuation Reset - 1.00 · 🟢 Drawdown Depth - 0.97

$XRP ( ▼ 2.54% ) has the most green marks in the group, and the best, positive signal is that coins are suddenly changing hands cheaply relative to how much activity is on the network.

It's also deeply discounted and well off its highs. But two things keep this from being a clean bull call: long-term holders are still actively moving their coins rather than settling in, and the serious money has been stepping back over the past month rather than buying. The cheapness is real and improving; the conviction underneath it isn't there yet.

Read - Neutral, leaning constructive.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum - On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🟡

🟢 Holder Resolve - 0.83 · 🟡 Whale Bid - 0.42 · 🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation - 0.35 · 🔴 Transactional Cheapness - 0.12 · 🟢 Valuation Reset - 0.67 · 🟢 Drawdown Depth - 0.93

If there’s one sign of strength that $ETH ( ▼ 2.67% ) is has going for it is patience: its holders have largely stopped trading and are sitting through the decline. It's also fallen far enough to be in serious-discount territory.

So what’s the hesitation? No idea, but one could be valuation. Ethereum is moderately cheap, not deeply cheap, so the bargain isn't as stretched as other names here.

Layered on top, the serious-money cohort has been thinning out over the past month. The base is calm and the holders are committed, but the discount isn't extreme and fresh buyers haven't arrived.

Read - Neutral, leaning constructive.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Aave - On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🟡

🟡 Holder Resolve - 0.34 · 🔴 Whale Bid - 0.22 · 🔴 Mid-Tier Accumulation - 0.30 · 🔴 Transactional Cheapness - 0.21 · 🟢 Valuation Reset - 1.00 · 🟢 Drawdown Depth - 1.00

Still realing from the KelpDao incident, $AAVE ( ▼ 3.65% ) is beaten down and buyers at today's price are well below the average holder's cost. That's the encouraging side. The problem is that almost nothing else supports it.

The largest holders aren't buying, serious money has been leaving over the past month, network usage is muted, and hodlers are still actively moving coins. Deep value with no one underneath it is a balanced-to-cautious setup.

Read - Neutral.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Litecoin - On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🔴

🔴 Holder Resolve - 0.10 · 🟡 Whale Bid - 0.45 · 🔴 Mid-Tier Accumulation - 0.30 · 🔴 Transactional Cheapness - 0.00 · 🟢 Valuation Reset - 1.00 · 🟢 Drawdown Depth - 0.99

There’s a couple things to note about $LTC ( ▼ 1.83% ) : it is deeply discounted and far off its highs - but the other things happening make it weak. Long-term holders are still actively moving coins instead of holding tight, the serious-money cohort has been shrinking over the past month, and network activity has dried up completely.

The large holders, though, are roughly steady, which is the one mild positive. When something is this cheap but holders are still active and usage is dead, the discount tends to read more like ongoing weakness.

Read - Slightly Bearish.

RWA
Inveniam To Build 'Incorruptible Source Of Truth' On The Chain That Lost 90% In A Day 🤔

Inveniam is acquiring $MANTRA ( ▼ 0.99% ) . Which really means an AI entity just bought a RWA entity. But it does makes sense. Inveniam handles private-market data & MANTRA brings a regulated RWA blockchain.

Together since a $20 million strategic investment last August, they built NVNM Chain, an L2 meant to give AI agents a verifiable record of asset provenance without cracking open confidential data rooms. A full buyout closing in Q3 follows from that.

This is the same MANTRA Chain whose OM token (the old ticker) fell about 90% in a single April 2025 session, vaporizing more than $5.5 billion and leaving the token roughly 99% below its peak, with rug-pull accusations the team spent months denying and a public feud with OKX for dessert.

Regarding what happens with MANTRA post acquisition: it stays the same, or something like that. So does the token. What that does for anyone still holding MANTRA is left unsaid, as are the financial terms.

NEWS
Illinois Imposes 0.2% Crypto Tax On Digital Asset Transactions, Including Transfers 🤦

Illinois’ governor just signed the largest budget in it’s history. It leans on roughly $800 million in new taxes (they call it revenue) and the kinds of new taxes are straight out of How To Make People Leave My State 101.

• Digital asset sales tax - 0.2% on digital asset sales and transfers to/from wallets.

• Social media tax - progressive per-user fee. Platforms with 100k–499k users pay 10 cents per user per month, scaling up to 1M+ user platforms paying a $165,000 base fee plus 50 cents per user per month.

• Corporate net operating loss deduction cap - lowered, shrinking how much businesses can write off.

• Digital advertising tax (Targeted Advertising Services Tax) - 10% on digital ad-service revenue above $1M.

• Fantasy sports tax - new operator licensing plus a 15% tax on receipts from fantasy contests.

• Prediction market sports bets - taxed starting at 1.75%.

• Remote tobacco tax - out-of-state retailers must now collect Illinois tax on cigars, pipe tobacco, and alternative nicotine products.

• Small business stock gains - Illinois decoupled from the federal code; sell qualifying small business stock within five years of buying and you now owe state tax on the gains.

To say the crypto industry and supporters are, um, miffed would be an understatement:

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• This one was basically crypto’s failure museum - a rundown of the 10 most infamous failed projects, from outright frauds to clown-car collapses.

• BitConnect got top billing - the meme-Ponzi that sucked in roughly $2.4B before imploding in spectacular fashion.

• Terra was the real crater - around $60B got vaporized, and unlike some other disasters, most of it stayed dead.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Terraform got hit with a proposed SEC judgment of $3.58B plus a $420M civil penalty.

• The market had gone from dreaming about six cuts to basically one as the 2024 base case.

• Inflation was improving, just not fast enough for the Fed to stop acting like a hall monitor.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

June 17

• 1497 - Cornish rebels marched all the way toward London over taxes, then Henry VII’s army smashed them at the Battle of Blackheath, also called Deptford Bridge

• 1579 - Francis Drake reached what’s now Northern California and claimed the area for Elizabeth I, named ‘New Albion’

• 1631 - Mumtaz Mahal died in Burhanpur on June 17, 1631, and Shah Jahan later built the Taj Mahal in her memory

• 1673 - Jacques Marquette and Louis Jolliet entered the Mississippi on June 17 during their expedition through the interior of North America

• 1775 - U.S. Revolution - The Battle of Bunker Hill

• 1885 - The Statue of Liberty arrived in New York Harbor

• 1930 - Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

• 1944 - Iceland became an independent republic

• 1953 - East Germany erupted against Soviet-backed rule

• 1967 - China tested its first hydrogen bomb

• 1971 - Nixon declared the War on Drugs

• 1972 - The Watergate burglars were arrested

• 1991 - South Africa repealed apartheid’s racial registration law

• 1994 - O.J. Simpson’s white Bronco chase swallowed American television

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎 

Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋