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- Altcoin Market Snaps 6 Month Losing Streak 👍️
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OVERVIEW
Altcoin Market Snaps 6 Month Losing Streak 👍️
Here’s What’s Happening 👇️
Top trending tickers today: Brokecoin, Reactive Network, Zcash, Benqi Finance, and Drift.
Biggest gainers: $ZEC ( ▲ 9.35% ) , $TAO ( ▲ 8.13% ) , $HYPE ( ▲ 3.73% ) , $DOGE ( ▲ 2.41% ) , and $BTC ( ▲ 2.04% )
Biggest losers: $WLFI ( ▼ 10.72% ) , $M ( ▼ 7.51% ) , $CC ( ▼ 2.14% ) , $NEAR ( ▼ 0.91% ) , and $AAVE ( ▼ 1.36% )
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:
Source: TradingView
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Altcoin Market Snaps 6 Month Losing Streak. Barely. 😮💨
TOTAL3ES Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.
Altcoins barely eeked out a win for April. And in the process, ended a six-month losing streak. So that’s good. But that’s about as excited as you can get.
Given how April closed and how unimpressive it was, it’s easy to understand why there’s not a lot of people jumping for joy.
But there are some other observations we can take from the monthly chart:
First lower-high in dataset history - 2025 cycle peaked at $912B, ten percent below the 2021 peak of $1,016B.
The $850B ceiling has held for 55 months - eleven separate monthly bars have tagged it since May 2021. Only one (Oct 2021) closed inside the zone. Nothing has broken it.
Drawdowns are shrinking each cycle - 2018: -92.6%. 2022: -83.2%. 2026: -60.7%. Shorter and shallower every time.
The cycle floor keeps rising - $26B (2018), $170B (2022), $358B (Feb 2026).
The Feb 2026 low never got close to the 2022 low - $358B is 2.1x the prior bear floor. The macro higher-low structure is intact.
Volatility is collapsing into a coil - monthly range went from 88% (Oct) to 38% (Feb) to 17% (Mar/Apr) to 1.6% (May so far). March and April both inside February’s range.
The chart is a multi-year wedge, apex inside twelve months.
The aggregate alt bucket has not made a new high in 55 months - while BTC printed all-time highs and ETH held bid through this cycle, the altcoin market has failed to confirm.
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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Holders Underwater Since August Finally Surface, Promptly Forget How To Breathe 🤦
Click to enlarge.
$BTC ( ▲ 2.04% ) spent most of the spring trading like it’s feeling guilty about something bad it did that no one knows about. Two months below breakeven, a flush down to $62K, and a holder base that had stopped asking when things will turn. Then the bid showed up and the Composite MVRV finally crawled back above 1.0 for the first time since August.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it looks less like winning and more like it’s not losing.
Mid-term holders have been underwater for the better part of six months, and a meaningful chunk of them just got back to even. Historically, that's the moment where one of two things happens: late hands sell into the relief and the move stalls, or supply absorbs and the trend continues higher.
Lean: cautiously bullish.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
ETH Holders Stuck At "Almost Breakeven" Form Support Group 🫂
Click to enlarge.
Have you ever watched those oddly satisfying videos of an intricate design or puzzle being completed (or, if you’re one of those people who likes gross stuff, those Dr. Pimple Popper video), but then the video stops right before you get the visual cue that makes your brain smile and go ‘ahhhhhh’?
$ETH ( ▲ 0.92% ) ’s Composite MVRV is basically one of those videos. It’s stuck at 0.99, closed at 0.9958. That is a rounding error away from breakeven for mid-term holders, and it's the closest the line has been to reclaiming 1.0 since October.
Price action mirrors the metric. ETH bounced 11% off the lows in 30 days but has gone basically nowhere over 90. It's standing chest-deep in the pool with the water just under its chin - one decent wave gets it dry, one bad gust drowns it again.
Over the last sixteen-ish months, ETH has been below the break-even line (1.0) 64% of the time. The fact that it’s flirting with 1.0 instead of slicing through suggests sellers are still active here - probably the late summer 2025 buyers from $4,500 finally seeing a way out.
Lean: neutral with a bullish tilt.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
XRP Whale Activity Detected; Whales Reportedly Just Selling 🤦
Click to enlarge.
$XRP ( ▲ 1.04% ) is like a boomerang that keeps flying out and refuses to come back. Composite MVRV is sitting at 0.89, every single day of the last 60 has printed below the breakeven line, and price is still down 61% from the July peak.
It’s a bouncing ball that's lost most of its bounce. Each rally smaller than the last, each pullback eating a little more of the gains. From a holder perspective, mid-term buyers are sitting on losses and have been for two months running. Nobody who bought above $2 has any reason to feel good.
From a bullish perspective (way oversold), the Composite MVRV is more than half a standard deviation below its own long-run average - statistically cheap relative to where XRP usually trades. The problem is that "statistically cheap" and "going up next week" are not the same sentence.
Lean: bearish until proven otherwise.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Oracle Network Secures Trillions In Value; Token Worth Less Than Lunch 🔮
Click to enlarge.
LINK is the reliable middle child of crypto. It just shows up, never gets the spotlight, and lives below breakeven so consistently that the line at 1.0 might as well be the ceiling instead of the average. Composite MVRV is at 0.94. It's spent 72% of the last sixteen months below 1.0.
Price-wise, this is watching paint dry that's already been re-applied four times. The 30-day move is +5.9%, the 90-day is -3%, and the chart looks like a gentle slope sideways.
The MVRV move from December lows to today is not too bad; it’s crawled from the 0.58 zone to 0.94 over the back half of the cycle. That's a holder base slowly working its way back to even. The trouble is that "slowly working back to even" can become "stuck just below even forever," and $LINK ( ▼ 0.37% ) has historically been very good at the second one.
Lean: neutral.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano’s MVRV At 0.90, Just Like Last Year, And The Year Before 😶
Click to enlarge.
ADA is the guy at the party who's been insisting things are about to turn around for an hour while standing in a puddle of his own spilled drink, at least I hope that’s his drink. Let’s just say the puddle is his drink.
The Composite MVRV is 0.90, price made a fresh cycle low less than three weeks ago, and the drawdown from January 2025 sits at 78%. That's a full cycle washout.
This is what late-stage capitulation looks like before anyone's ready to call it that. Every day of the last sixty has printed below the breakeven line. The 30-day price move is +3.4%, which sounds like a recovery until you notice the 90-day is -13.4%.
There's a contrarian case here. MVRV at 0.90 with a Z-score of -0.19 is statistically average for $ADA ( ▲ 0.69% ) , not stretched - the asset just lives in the basement. But price made a new cycle low less than a month ago.
Lean: bearish - but any hint of a move higher it could leap.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
DOGE MVRV Reclaims Breakeven; Twenty Million Holders Suddenly Remember They Own It 🙀
Click to enlarge.
$DOGE ( ▲ 2.41% ) is the drunk uncle who fell off the barstool, slept on the floor for three months, woke up at 4 AM, and is now buying everyone shots. The Composite MVRV ripped from 0.82 to 1.06 in 30 days - a clean reclaim of the breakeven line. Price is up 20% in the same window.
Mid-term holders went from underwater to back above breakeven in basically a single move. The Z-score is +1.22, meaning the asset is more than a full standard deviation above its own historical average.
DOGE has spent 77% of the last sixteen months below 1.0. The basement is its natural habitat, and gravity has not lost its job.
Lean: bullish with caveats.
OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜
Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:
The big setup was simple - Bitcoin historically tends to have a wild May, with an average monthly return of about +11.97% and a reputation for big breakouts or ugly reversals.
Ethereum looked absolutely cooked - it had just logged 5 straight down months, hit a 2-year low in April.
DeFi and stablecoin plumbing kept moving - Sonic upgraded to native USDC, PancakeSwap Infinity pushed farming, and Bancor’s arb system kept expanding.
Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:
Cardano randomly became the interesting chart - large transaction volume was huge, sellers were mostly underwater, and sentiment was creeping up.
Bitcoin was sitting at a make-or-break level - right on a key trendline near $56,961.
Tether posted absurd Q1 numbers - about $4.52B in profit, more than $90B in Treasuries, and net equity of $11.37B.
BlackRock doubled down on tokenization - leading a $47M round into Securitize.
Here’s what was happening in the newsletter three years ago today:
Venmo made crypto more usable - users could finally move crypto between Venmo, PayPal, and external wallets, which was one of the first practical consumer-payment moves.
The Gary and Larry Harmon saga was the crime story - one brother ran Helix, the other stole 712 BTC.
Bitcoin’s April close looked weak even though it was green - BTC finished April up just 2.71%.
The chart take was basically “downside risk is real, but May could fake people out”.
OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️
May 1
305 - Diocletian and Maximian retire from being Roman emperor. Yup, two of them.
1169 - The Norman invasion of Ireland begins.
1328 - England recognizes Scotland as an independent state.
1669 - The Welsh privateer Captain Henry Morgan forms a small fleet and defeats a Spanish Armada at Maracaibo.
1707 - Acts of Union, England and Scotland form the Kingdom of Great Britain.
1786 - Mozart’s The Marriage of Figaro premiers.
1807 - Slavery is abolished in the British Empire.
1898 - Spanish-American War, Battle of Manila Bay - the U.S. Navy defeats the Spanish Navy. After seven hours, all seven Spanish ships are lost, no American ships or sailors lost.
1900 - The worst mining accident is US history, The Scofield Mine Disaster, happened. 200 men died.
1915 - The RMS Lusitania is torpedoed off the cost of Ireland, nearly 1,200 died.
1931 - The Empire State Building opens.
1941 - Orson Welles’s Citizen Kane premiers.
1926 - Workers at the Ford Motor Company clock in for their newly adopted five-day, forty-hour work week. Manufacturers across the country soon follow Ford’s lead. Coincidentally, on May 1 1886 there were massive demonstrations demanding an eight-hour work day.
1956 - The first polio vaccine is available to the public.
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋
